five reasons: now until mid october is VERY dangerous

* we are entering the warning and reporting time frame. these fundamentals DO matter. think of the recent downward revision of 2Q GDP and the growing understanding that the economy is going off a cliff. these mean two things: earnings will probably surpise lower and companies will lower forecasts between now and mid october. * we have been so distracted by "the plan" that we forget about the ramping up unemployment. did you notice that weekly claims are up to nearly 500k? i don't think that 10/3 report is going to be very pretty, no matter how much they blame it on ike. * we are in that dangerous sep/oct time frame. remember 1987, 1989, 1997, 1998, 2002 for just a few? the full moon in mid october will soon start its charybdis pull. * congress will be gone by monday or tuesday. whatever is going to be done will be done. that hope and news will be old. the next focus will be more on the real economy than we have yet seen. * RUNS ON BANKS continue. consider this: even while the plan was announced and the fed was saving everyone, WAMU STILL had a run (no, not reported widely) that sucked out $17 billion. and, oh yes, take a gander at the TED spread if you think the credit markets are relaxing and taking a breather.

Edited by humble1, 27 September 2008 - 06:11 AM.

* we are entering the warning and reporting time frame. these fundamentals DO matter. think of the recent downward revision of 2Q GDP and the growing understanding that the economy is going off a cliff. these mean two things: earnings will probably surpise lower and companies will lower forecasts between now and mid october.

* we have been so distracted by "the plan" that we forget about the ramping up unemployment. did you notice that weekly claims are up to nearly 500k? i don't think that 10/3 report is going to be very pretty, no matter how much they blame it on ike.

* we are in that dangerous sep/oct time frame. remember 1987, 1989, 1997, 1998, 2002 for just a few? the full moon in mid october will soon start its charybdis pull.

* congress will be gone by monday or tuesday. whatever is going to be done will be done. that hope and news will be old. the next focus will be more on the real economy than we have yet seen.

* RUNS ON BANKS continue. consider this: even while the plan was announced and the fed was saving everyone, WAMU STILL had a run (no, not reported widely) that sucked out $17 billion. and, oh yes, take a gander at the TED spread if you think the credit markets are relaxing and taking a breather.

I am with you 100%, I see money is being pulled and don't see that 1300 range that so many are expecting. If by chance it does (very small chance) it will be the opportunity to short for a very very profitable swing trade.

Yesterday I spoke to a seasoned construction contractor here in Tulsa. He asked: "What am I going to do? I'm 72 and I owe over $100k on my house. There is NO WORK. It's dead." And Tulsa's economy is great compared to the real world.