FF: I don't know if there's a DEAL OR NO DEAL

The signal I posted on the December Gold contract yesterday... 804 Hourly, 784 Daily Support will be tested...

Now here's GLD, see the big volume spike low? That's going to be tested, and if you look at the equity indices, the lows there will also be tested... in short, regardless of what moves the Washington Idiots make, we're going to see quite a retracement again in the commodities AND equities... The USO chart sends similar signal...

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Here's my strategy... I'm waiting for that test of the lows on GLD/Gold Contract. I expect that to most likely intersect with some kind of rally in the broad market. What we want to see on that test is progressively, calmed-down, lighter volume to the target over a few days.... I believe that will be a good time to enter from a risk/reward perspective...

But make no mistake, my technical assessment of these "instruments" is that they are in transition and flux, undetermined outcome, but for the moment and short term, regardless of any rally, they are all going LOWER.

If my expectations come to fruition, we'll see the gold market bottom first as a "false rally" pushes higher prices in the broad market. Oil and most commodities will retest their lows. Then we look for a sign of strength in gold first, commodities second, and then technology will take off. Now I can't say for sure when we'll reach that bottom or more importantly just what that level is, I can say for sure, when we do finally bottom, the gold market will lead us out of the deep valley into a long plateau. We'll see volatility shrink to near zero, and low volume stagnation. Wall Street will recapture the reputation they had in the 30s and in the 70s and that is "a dirty, filthy business" run by dull brains...

Now this is as good as I can find for you to illustrate my ideas above regarding the order I expect in the next bottom in the markets...

Here is GLD/USO/SOXX/DJIA overlay... See who makes the low first? GLD, followed by ? USO. Followed by broad market...

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

I wish I knew the outcome of the current "event", and I am working hard on getting the "NO DEAL" message out to friends and family... However, I have assessed the "impact" as reflected in my technical read of the markets and the above represents my best estimate of how I expect them to react...

I hope it is helpful.

Thanks Semi.
Sounds as good as any.

The mindset which I see over and over is "We've got to do something" no matter what the problem, and without regard for the unintended consequences.

(EDIT: After posting this, I found the exact mindset I was talking about from a local:

tulsaOUfan, Tulsa (9/27/2008 11:08:05 AM)
Let's hope it works whatever they finally do. We need to do something.)
LINK

Tulsa went thru that after 9/11 when everybody was worried about the economy.
"We need to do something" So they voted to build the new BOK Event Center.
They just forgot to build a parking lot for the 20,000 attendees!
Morning Gridlock

HURRY!
QUICK!
DO SOMETHING!
ANYTHING!

Edited by Rogerdodger, 27 September 2008 - 03:01 PM.

Semi - I totally agree with your analyses. This whole financial mess has not been detailed by anyone on TV or in the news. As near as I can tell its about credit default swaps that are based upon pooled mortgage Collaterilized Mortgage Obligation bonds. My solution, is if we are going to put out this much money to keep something around which never should have been created in the first place, take the money and pay off all the mortgages and just let the big guys who own those bonds take a hit - that would stimulate the economy and we might avoid tent cities around the country. Mary Anne

Here's a slightly different pattern on GLD, with similar outcome: Wave pattern ABCDE: Wave A: 17 (down) Wave B: 14 (up) Wave C: 25 (1.62 Fib x A) Total = 28 points down Wave D: 94 (.78 Fib x AC) Wave E: 68 (1.0 Fib x AC) Total = 28 points down Within Wave CD: smaller a-b-c up from 74 to 94 Wave a: 16 (up) Wave b: back down to 78-80, or 10-12 points (.62 Fib x a) Wave c: up to 94, or 16 points (1.0 Fib x a) Correction ends around $gold 680.

I wish I knew the outcome of the current "event", and I am working hard on getting the "NO DEAL" message out to friends and family... However, I have assessed the "impact" as reflected in my technical read of the markets and the above represents my best estimate of how I expect them to react...

I hope it is helpful.

Semi, I've done the same. For fun I've pasted below the response I received back from my Representative when I wrote to oppose a bailout. I'm not happy with his reply.

Dear Mr. xxxx:



Thank you for contacting me regarding our country's financial crisis and the administration's bailout proposal. It is good to hear your thoughts on this very important situation facing our country and I share in your concerns.



As you know, Treasury Secretary Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke testified recently before Congress about their proposal to spend $700 billion to purchase the debt of financial institutions, improve our credit situation, and stabilize our economy. I reviewed the proposal carefully and, like you, I had serious concerns about this proposal such as the blanket authority removing Congressional or legal oversight, the implied reward for unwise financial behaviors at the expense of honest Americans, and the long-term expense to tax payers without a mechanism to press criminal charges upon those who are responsible for this situation.



As a consequence, I offered an alternative measure. According to the Department of Treasury, there are two problems that need to be addressed: the short term liquidity emergency, and the long-term toxic mortgage asset holdings. To address the liquidity emergency, my plan would reduce all personal and corporate capital gains taxes to zero percent for one year, reduce the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) to zero percent for one month with a reoccurring month to month option, and allow the Department of Treasury to loan current funds to lending institutions at the rate of inflation plus three percent or LIBOR plus three percent. This plan would get the markets moving and allow Congress adequate time to address the mortgage assets situation while we investigate those corporations or government regulators who may be criminally negligent.



One of my most important roles as your Congressman is to be a responsible steward of tax payer funds and, while my proposal remains an option, there are many proposals still being debated and it is unclear what the final product will look like. I will be sure to keep you informed of what happens as we move forward.



Again, thank you for taking the time to contact me. I appreciate having the opportunity to represent you in the U.S. House of Representatives. Please feel free to visit my website (www.house.gov/burgess) or contact me with any future concerns.


Sincerely,

Michael C. Burgess, M.D.
Member of Congress

that MDs are poor drivers is well known, they sure arent economists either