The 1930s correlation and WW3

Folks, this is a critical test of my correlation. Every historical marker, I place against my fractal and timeline comparison. The Russian invasion of Georgia was a marker I was expecting. As I said, it correlated with Germany's invasion of Czechoslovakia. I posted a reference to Roosevelt's fireside chat about a week ago in reference to the famous speech 'we have nothing to fear but fear itself'. This too was a reference marker because what he proposed was a gigantic spending program to rescue the US economy from utter collapse into a depression worse than 1929 (not my words, words of those at the time). It too was an emergency measure, asked of congress to put 'no cap on spending, pass right away'. Sounds familiar? This I consider another marker. If the correlation is to continue, the bill will pass and we will run up in one of the biggest sucker rallies of all time. I mark my fractal by non-market events, technicals, and patterns (including EW structure). The lows made last week I did not expect price wise, but the bottom matched time wise. From an EW perspective, I assume the market has completed a gigantic a-b-c correction to mark a primary wave A bottom. A primary wave B (sucker) rally is what I expect from here. The a-b-c dates would be janary 08 'a', may 08 'b', sept 08 'c', which marks the bottom of primary wave A. Ofcourse ST technicals look really crappy to me, and there are no guarantees the correlation will continue. But I am posting this as my interest in the 30s history and comparison continues. Good luck to all traders.

Edited by dcengr, 27 September 2008 - 03:34 PM.

I am posting this as my interest in the 30s history and comparison continues.

dcengr
As a half arsed historian I appreciate the posts. Thank you.
Best to you.

What is the timeline like, is a week a 1930 month?

What is the timeline like, is a week a 1930 month?

Well a 1930 dollar is like 12 dollars today so maybe a week then is like three months today


Dcengr,

Thanks for posting. What bothers me about direct correlations is that during the 1930s people turned to the government to make things better. I do not think the government was at the helm when the depression happened (they came after and made it worse though). This time people know that the government is at the helm. If things get real ugly, then isn't is likely that people will turn against or at least away from the government this time?

This is all cycle stuff.. It is until it isn't. I know that doesn't sound too confident, but here's what I'm looking for: The bailout package is being heavily resisted right now. Everyone is throwing in conditions and what not.. its all in the news. If the correlation is correct, all that will go out the window and Paulson will get everything he wants. Believe me, I have a hard time accepting it myself. But I had even harder time accepting how this could be happening where its happening now, but it is. If it happens, I'll share the news paper article clippings I have and perhaps some of the forecasts later on. This is truly bordering on the twilight zone.

Examine the last 2 years on a weekly basis ...

This is the IT Bottom <<<<<

2 Descending Fractals.

Expect rising prices into next year ( Could be your B Wave ) but you can still make money on this rally

Good Luck

Folks, this is a critical test of my correlation.

Every historical marker, I place against my fractal and timeline comparison. The Russian invasion of Georgia was a marker I was expecting. As I said, it correlated with Germany's invasion of Czechoslovakia.

I posted a reference to Roosevelt's fireside chat about a week ago in reference to the famous speech 'we have nothing to fear but fear itself'. This too was a reference marker because what he proposed was a gigantic spending program to rescue the US economy from utter collapse into a depression worse than 1929 (not my words, words of those at the time). It too was an emergency measure, asked of congress to put 'no cap on spending, pass right away'. Sounds familiar? This I consider another marker.

If the correlation is to continue, the bill will pass and we will run up in one of the biggest sucker rallies of all time.

I mark my fractal by non-market events, technicals, and patterns (including EW structure). The lows made last week I did not expect price wise, but the bottom matched time wise. From an EW perspective, I assume the market has completed a gigantic a-b-c correction to mark a primary wave A bottom. A primary wave B (sucker) rally is what I expect from here. The a-b-c dates would be janary 08 'a', may 08 'b', sept 08 'c', which marks the bottom of primary wave A.

Ofcourse ST technicals look really crappy to me, and there are no guarantees the correlation will continue. But I am posting this as my interest in the 30s history and comparison continues.

Good luck to all traders.

totally wrong comparison Germany of the 1920s-30s is totally unlike Russia of today (if that is what is being inferred) as to the invasion marker..one can debate that too so back to the drawing board

totally wrong comparison

Germany of the 1920s-30s is totally unlike Russia of today (if that is what is being inferred)

as to the invasion marker..one can debate that too

so back to the drawing board

I hope you're right and that I'm wrong. I really really really do. I hate to see this road going where its going, being someone well versed with history of WW2 and all its consequences.

Unfortunately, its locking in like clockwork, and I am dumbfounded by whats happening and powerless to stop it.

All I can do is check the markers off as its occurring and prepare for the worst.

Wars are a product of economic longwaves, the predicted maximum death rate for this one if 2013-2014.
This chart courtest of Bob Bronson shows the correlation of wars to secular bear markets (which correlate to longwaves). But remember history rhymes but doesn't repeat exactly.



Mark

This one is rhyming so closely I feel like a rapper.