IT/LT update

http://nav-ta.blogsp...tom-update.html

you could make a laundry list of the things that not only were posted on this board but in the media!! 1) lets close the exchange 2) dow 8000 3) companies wont be able to make payroll 4)ATMS wont dispurse cash on Monday 5) Paulson drops to a knee for Pelosi 6)blah blah blah when can i start singing" oh when the saints come marching in" i can tell you this....now we start a multi month rally and all you will hear is the following" the other shoe still has to drop in regards to earnings" i remember it well coming out of the early 90's and 1995!!! GEE i wonder if the SOX has fully priced in a global meltdown in technology....i think the mkt caught on to that Friday with the late day ramp in INTC!!! lets put that life raft on hold hey NAV!!!! oh when the saints...oh when the saints come marching in....da da da

After Neely's emergency bulletin, where he said govt intervention was affecting waves, Prechter came back with today's EWT saying the waves incorporate govt intervention and are working. This morning Neely sent a new bulletin and a chart (available to his subscribers), saying he "figured out how to properly adjust S&P wave structure to get it "back on track" and maintain the longer-term structure and perspective." His view: next week we will see a panic sell-off and hit the lows for this year. Then (presumably) The Surge commences - in my wave count, a b wave of an abc zigzag from Oct07 to ~2010, which is the C wave of an ABCDE triangle from 2000 to ~2014.

I am not calling The Surge yet - let's see how next week develops. Both the STU and Neely agree that softness on Mon/Tues will spark a panic rout downwards. Whether it ends quickly (Neely) or drives deeper than anyone imagines (Prechter) remains to be seen

http://yelnick.typep...8/09/index.html

Is Neely essentially saying the govt can change waves and trend ? If so, wave theory should be useless.

nav: i went to your blog and read your well supported argument. imho, "the kick-off" went out of bounds because (no, e-wave is not a god and though i like it, it cannot see perfectly into the future) the no-short rules and "the plan" hype made the kicker top the ball. thanks for the neely and prechter re-cap and for sharing your clearly and succinctly presented views. regards, H1 p.s. fwiw: still looking for a plunge into mid-october and maybe a low, but probably best to wait until mid december to go max-max long for a great rally into late january.

Edited by humble1, 28 September 2008 - 04:22 AM.

IF, and thats a very big IF, some sort of an upward move is about to start, there certainly will be plenty of mistrust to go along with it. What I want to see is how the US dollar reacts tomorrow. If dollar doesn't tank and remains reasonably strong, then most likely there will be credit available to the US and money inflows that will support the system. I am however working on the list of some longs I wouldn't mind owning here.

the problem is not really (just) credit availability. this is a solvency issue, a worldwide solvency issue. a strong dollar just means folks are fleeing into treasuries as the safest place to park large amounts of money. it also hurts USA exports and keeps the normal functioning of the currency markets from working toward eliminating our trade deficit. for these two reasons and others, a strong dollar is a sign of DYSFUNCTIONAL bond, currency, equity and credit markets.

Edited by humble1, 28 September 2008 - 07:58 AM.

The phone calls and e-mails to the officials were 30 to 2 against the bail out.....They cannot vote the bailout....But they can vote on Wall street....The bottom is in?.....Are you taking speed or ecstasy?

Thanks NAV...we do indeed have the classic signs of at least an Intermediate low. Its been a long time since we have seen so many calls for much lower numbers than we are at now. We are at the crossroads for this move. This play is all set up. The bill will pass today. We will gap up, how much we don't know. If its a pathetic rally off this huge news, we should tank and get new lows with big divergences and then a huge buy ( in like 2-3 days)...if its a big gap, it will try and sell off, a small pullback will then need to a much bigger rally. I am pretty long, and short premium. Good luck all.

also agree with NAV - I started buying SSO Friday - very nice inverse H & S on the 60 minute. There's no question the "rescue" passes, I wish they'd drop the charade - DC has never had a problem spending our money, did anyone really expect expect them to grow a conscience ?

http://nav-ta.blogsp...tom-update.html

I agree the bottom may be in or maybe take maybe another 1-3 weeks at most to form. A mute point. From there the trend is up to the middle of August next year which is not far from what you are looking for. It may be higher high but more likely a double top or lower high than October 2007. The real problem is the August top will be the final top for years and years to come. Why worry! Until then it will be party time on the long side and then party time to the short side.

For years I have been working with the 40 year cycle back to the 1700's. I had always wondered what the catalyst would be to cause the collapse into a 2014 bottom. I think we now know and the current problems are only a shot across the bow. Per the Dallas Fed this year we still have $99 trillion in unfunded SS ($14T) and Medicare/Medicaid ($85T) to deal with. Divide that by 301 million men, women, and children in this country and you get about $328,000 each. You can also add in the national debt plus some other goodies but I think we get the message.

KC