The proposed bail out (PDF)

link to the pdf

Edited by arbman, 28 September 2008 - 02:49 PM.

hi arbman,

you expect futures tonight to be up or down from Friday once they open today? just curious what you are thinking the market reaction will do since:

uncertainty remains because:

1. amendments to the current proposal are likely and how much time will be required to come to agreement on these revisions?

2. the House vote at the earliest will be Monday...factor in proposal amendments, a completed house vote may not be likely by Monday close of market

3. the Senate vote follows the House vote

thanks for the link.

one chart I will take clues from in the coming weeks...the point where to take the lowest risk selling a potential rally is obvious -

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX...id=p91584921342

Edited by hiker, 28 September 2008 - 03:28 PM.

They will be up, there is absolutely no way a news about "fresh free money" can keep the markets down. No member of the Senate or House wants to be blamed for the failure, so they will also vote for it. This is over. Personally, I am generally disappointed by the act, the provisions look very weak and it basically gives the crown to Prince Henry. So, this is basically a blank check buried into 106 pages of BS, what does it mean? It means $250B fresh money for the markets, but this amount is still quite conservative to fight a full on deflation that's been happening and I doubt it will do more than keeping the markets in a range for a while...

Edited by arbman, 28 September 2008 - 03:36 PM.

thanks for your opinion. this is my 2cents. the weekend posturing about the status of the "deal" is for the benefit of the Asian markets. beyond the appearance that has been crafted for the public - I personally believe the deal requires more than a day or two negotiations and details to be firmed up before both votes and showing up on the desk of the President. I do not personally believe the stock market price action will hold a strong rally, if any, into the close Monday unless more evidence is provided that the "deal" is actually nearly ready for a vote.

Edited by hiker, 28 September 2008 - 03:43 PM.

This is my view for Oct.

You are welcome.

Edited by arbman, 28 September 2008 - 03:48 PM.

Hiker, I can actually understand why they are selling the news, the gov't is still thinking they can save this mess by actually injecting slowly, taking equity in the banks (which devalues them to near zero), watching the crooks do not benefit and so on while the market is telling that they are in a dire stress and they need a lot more money NOW. This is what I've been saying over the last week and a half since they announced the plan that this will not stop this decline since it doesn't stop the real estate chaos and there is no money in the system to stage a significant rally to support itself, although a complete failure immediately will be a surprise somewhat even for me. I have some calls from 1200 level, I am going to basically unload them for any profit I can, I hedged them at the negative open in futures further now, I also have some puts... So, I am market neutral at the moment, let's see. If they manage to rally somewhat next week, I will try to load the accounts to the net short some for the 12 wk low due in the following week, but I will be presenting so perhaps I won't be able to trade (and post here). So cash works out just fine...