The 12wk lows...

This is not an IT low.

The 8wk bounce is over, the 12, 24, 16 wk cyclical lows are too much for this market to bear. The 12wk low is ideally due around Oct 7-9th, but it can go as late at 13th or the expiration week for the usual market maker manipulations at the last minute. Now you know why they banned the short selling at the last minute...

I am so sad today just as an individual that the entire market is basically collapsing, this is not about being a trader in a volatile market anymore...

The cycle low is ideally due around Oct 9-13th. Here are similar lows from the past 2 years;

The 12wk low is now visible due around here...

The 12wk lows took about 60-62 days in the recent samples, but this can run up to 64 days or so...

Good luck...

collapsing or a retest overshoot?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEX...id=p78541979434

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...id=p67398460137

The 12 wk low will produce some sort of good rally, I suppose. This is by no means the end of this decline, imho, the market is going to below 1100 even if it doesn't go before the 12wk low. If it does, then SPX will be likely in 3 digits by Dec 2008 or 24wk low. There should be a more violent decline after the elections into the 16 wk low, so this 12wk low is an important one to stage a good bounce to avoid the sub-1000 levels...

Perhaps true on the index's. Some players will be crispy fried over the next few days, though. Not wise to be too comfortable with short positions unless they are holding and behaving bearishly still. Even then cautiousness is advised.

BW

This is not an IT low.

The 8wk bounce is over, the 12, 24, 16 wk cyclical lows are too much for this market to bear. The 12wk low is ideally due around Oct 7-9th, but it can go as late at 13th or the expiration week for the usual market maker manipulations at the last minute. Now you know why they banned the short selling at the last minute...

I am so sad today just as an individual that the entire market is basically collapsing, this is not about being a trader in a volatile market anymore...

The cycle low is ideally due around Oct 9-13th. Here are similar lows from the past 2 years;

The 12wk low is now visible due around here...

The 12wk lows took about 60-62 days in the recent samples, but this can run up to 64 days or so...

Good luck...