....it has marked at least a ST bottom every time I've seen it. Fwiw. D
65 of DJ65 Components Down on Day
Started by
IYB
, Sep 29 2008 04:28 PM
13 replies to this topic
#1
IYB
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Posted 29 September 2008 - 04:28 PM
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” ― Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
#2
qqqqtrdr
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Posted 29 September 2008 - 04:44 PM
With NASDAQ when 90% of stocks are below their 20, 50, and 200day MA it has also created a medium term bottom either that day or over the next 5 trading days.......
#3
ogm
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Posted 29 September 2008 - 04:47 PM
....it has marked at least a ST bottom every time I've seen it. Fwiw. D
I agree. I think we're hitting some sort of a bottom. Btw, another interesting stat. .... VIX has closed at all time high.
Here is what I think will happen next ..
- FDIC will increase insurance on accounts to about 1 mil per account.
- FASB will relax the mark to market rules.
- Congress will start urgently coming up with a new version of the bill. I think once elections are over Democrats will pass a bailout with or without republicans, especcialy with the new Democratic president.
- Coming earnings season will put the floor under individual stocks one by one.
- We will have a nice seasonal rally into the year end.
Fear is extreme, stock have been pummeled.
There is plenty positive developments that can happen now. More then negatives.
Time to start digging through the rubble.
#4
traderpaul
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Posted 29 September 2008 - 04:52 PM
OK guys what kind of bottom? U bottom? V bottom? A long building base bottom? (L bottom)?
"Inflation is taking place now. Prices may not appear to be rising because they are making packaging smaller. "— Rickoshay
#5
BigBadBear
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Posted 29 September 2008 - 04:52 PM
Ogm,
Are you sure you are not becoming biased. Many bottom pickers today
#6
thespookyone
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Posted 29 September 2008 - 05:06 PM
Agreed, and there is more. I covered my shorts at the close today that I took near the close Friday. Flipped into long QQQQ's at the close here, I think we see a fair bump up, at minimum. Also bought a handfull of AA calls, my usual system of looking at puts and calls says it pops up on the 7th-or before.
Edited by thespookyone, 29 September 2008 - 05:07 PM.
#7
IYB
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Posted 29 September 2008 - 05:08 PM
Well Paul, I haven't called a bottom yet. I've only stated a statistical fact. But when I do (maybe soon), I'll tell you what kind it is.....OK guys what kind of bottom? U bottom? V bottom? A long building base bottom? (L bottom)?
Best, D
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” ― Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
#8
qqqqtrdr
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Posted 29 September 2008 - 05:58 PM
Let's say that we need to have Panic before we have a bottom. I would say today counts as a Panic day by all accounts. I will call a bottom. The bottom will happen between now and Wednesday trading. This is only based on statistical analysis of all other medium term bottoms in the markets.........
Barry
#9
ogm
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Posted 29 September 2008 - 06:09 PM
OK guys what kind of bottom? U bottom? V bottom? A long building base bottom? (L bottom)?
Slow grind up bottom. Will probably base for a few days, then slowly creep up.
#10
fib_1618
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Posted 29 September 2008 - 06:10 PM
Kind of.VIX has closed at all time high
The old methodology (now the VXO) had an all time closing high of 150 back on 10/19/1987, so the new revision of the VIX index would probably be in and around this same level. Based on the data only going back to 1990 though, yes, it would be an all time closing high.
Fib
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