I toldya that high volume low would be tested...

As you may recall, I said after we made the 1133 low on the 18th, that we would retest it.... and the probabilities were strong for that low to be tested in the near term. I repeated at 1186, that in terms of time and price we were moving towards that test... and today we did retest those lows, breaking them decisively and closing UNDER them. Quite the statement. Now let's look ahead again. We have an ABC Down completion at 1095, and volume highs now that can be retested at 1210/1211. I would expect one of two things to happen from here, based on the lighter volume we had today vs the 18th... #1) We break 1095 and move directly to 1040 area... #2) We bounce from 1095 to the 1211, and then make another fast market decline to 1040. Honestly, I don't get a bullish feeling from this market. I get the feeling we're due for an insane bounce however, along with the continued crush of gold and commodities... We'll see if I am right on this one, or if I fall on my sword this time... I sold my SKF at 119 today, and my December 1000 Crash Puts for 400% gain. I'll be looking to buy them back again under $10 if we get this bounce I am looking for over the next few days...

Edited by SemiBizz, 29 September 2008 - 08:05 PM.

As you may recall, I said after we made the 1133 low on the 18th, that we would retest it.... and the probabilities were strong for that low to be tested in the near term. I repeated at 1186, that in terms of time and price we were moving towards that test... and today we did retest those lows, breaking them decisively and closing UNDER them. Quite the statement.

Now let's look ahead again. We have an ABC Down completion at 1095, and volume highs now that can be retested at 1210/1211. I would expect one of two things to happen from here, based on the lighter volume we had today vs the 18th...

#1) We break 1095 and move directly to 1040 area...

#2) We bounce from 1095 to the 1211, and then make another fast market decline to 1040.

Honestly, I don't get a bullish feeling from this market. I get the feeling we're due for an insane bounce however, along with the continued crush of gold and commodities...

We'll see if I am right on this one, or if I fall on my sword this time...

I sold my SKF at 119 today, and my December 1000 Crash Puts for 400% gain. I'll be looking to buy them back again under $10 if we get this bounce I am looking for over the next few days...

i think this thing is going to open down big

its funny you mention 1040....i just looked at a monthly spx and got 1038



could you see a jump from 1038 to 1210 immediately or a pause and retest of 1038 before going to 1211???

I will be adding 20% to long positions for LT holdings on tuesday. That will make 30% long, 70% flat.

SemiB, There were a rule changed in the middle of the game....No short selling on the financials.....That alone took away a lot of volume today.....No short covering.... i bet you 700 billion (just kidding)....that today's volume is higher than the 9/18/2008 if it wasn't for the rule change.....

could you see a jump from 1038 to 1210 immediately or a pause and retest of 1038 before going to 1211???

I have to side with impulse off the low based on what I saw today.

And yes, the activity I saw at the close, said to me that they were setting up a gap down... we'll see on that one.

I'll post a chart in a few minutes, so you can see why I think 1095 is important...

So, let's take a look at this 1211 confluence area... as you can see, this approximates the 1200 low area from July... That's the first thing. Then look at the number of days we have traded around this 1211 recently... So that's the second thing. Finally 1211 is the high of the last day of volume in the SPX, and just as 1133, the low for that was tested as I forecasted, it is not unexpected that we will retest the 1211 high in a consolidation... And you can also see that 1095 approximates the trend line support for tomorrow, in addition to the fact that it is the ABC Down Target....