TT members that were actively trading in '87

curious to hear your opinions.....TIA

curious to hear your opinions.....TIA

well it feels and looks the same like this 10/20 low the next day we had a sharp drop after the crash .P.S IT ALSO LOOKS AND FEELS LIKE THE LAST DAYS OF NIXON AKA 74 LOW MORE THAT IS WHAT I AM WORKING WITH AS A MODEL

curious to hear your opinions.....TIA

In 1987, if I remember correctly-- The market had been up for the year into Oct. The market crashed for several days & it was over. Too late to do much. I did see much fear & people getting out at any price. Most don't remember but the market
actually finished up 2% for the year. Most regained 80 % by year end & I had all my 401K money back plus some a year later.

This year the market's are already down 38% or more, & now the crash.

Bandit

Different. There were no circuit breakers then. It was a black hole freefall. Not sure how this will work today. The only similarity is that the market by Friday's close was "deeply oversold" and many felt sure it couldn't go any lower... all the usual technical indicators were near zero (so to speak). In fact, it had already looked that way by Thursday's close. Then the famous weekend with Zwieg on TV Friday night suggesting the market might crash and the Treasury sect badmouthing currencies in a dumb-{bleeeep} speech over the weekend and then monday morning an utter black hole. mm

MN, That's a good question. In 87 there was coverage in the news and papers and a few city people lost their jobs and were doing the usual wailing but it was a much different time. No one was under financial pressure and the public generally were not too bothered with it. I remember at the time thinking it would probably recover within a year. Not now though. This is only starting and the public know it. This will last an awful long time and be much worse than anyone can imagine. I have us coming out of it around 2022.

I was a pup broker back then. The action and the market were very different back then. The feel, however, is very similar. Tingly and slow motion if that makes any sense. The differences are pretty different, however. I mean everybody saw a decline coming, but nobody save a few guys like Ben Garside saw the Crash coming. The problems in the market were clear. It was a sick, over priced, thin market with rising rates on all time frames. The long bond was a real competitor for the stock market back then. Then we had "program trading" and "portfolio insurance" which created a self fulfilling prophesy. Now, last year we had a market that wasn't really over priced, low rates, decent earnings and not particularly bullish sentiment. The real estate market was obviously a problem, but the stock market really didn't look too bad. When we crashed, proper, I was dumbfounded. It was totally divorced from any sort of price reality. Liquidity in the market was nil. You couldn't get principle executions in Naz stocks. Options premiums were nuts. Big limit order sells in the puts (like at 100, out of the money) got filled (though they may have been busted after the fact, I don't remember). This is not like that. But the market isn't broken, now. Back then it was. It's banking that's broken. You can tell because it's in crisis because real estate fell 20% after making every idiot "investor" ungodly profits on any old property. Any market that can't handle a 30% adverse move is broken. Anyway, I digress. This is very scary. That was very scary. Different, but similar. I think that the actions being taken behind the scenes now are going to bite and that we bottom here shortly. If the rest of the world doesn't collapse, things can get fun on the upside. That last bit is a bigger "IF" than I'd like. Mark

If we dont really crash and cleanse here, this will get a lot worse. To be limit down and then not go down 1000 or 2000, quickly is not a good sign. It means this could drag on much longer than anyone would like. I doubt this will be anything like 87, and this year will end down a lot and be one for the record books for a long time to come. Good luck everyone.

One other thing that was different... no computers.. no internet... no quotes... All you had was the fledgling FNN (now CNBC) with an old ticker (delayed) and your phone to call in orders. So you were basically trading in a void. When the markets opened Monday morning the Big SP contract was moving in 10 point moves only (versus the "usual" moves of a nickel or so). The markets plunged until around 10 to 10:15 until there was manipulation of the XMI which led to a frantic rally which made many believe the bottom was in. Then the market reversed and ground relentlesly lower into a gut-wrenching close. mm

curious to hear your opinions.....TIA

In 1987, if I remember correctly-- The market had been up for the year into Oct. The market crashed for several days & it was over. Too late to do much. I did see much fear & people getting out at any price. Most don't remember but the market
actually finished up 2% for the year. Most regained 80 % by year end & I had all my 401K money back plus some a year later.

This year the market's are already down 38% or more, & now the crash.

Bandit

it topped in august and bottomed in december on the retest of the octobr low

One other thing that was different... no computers.. no internet... no quotes...
All you had was the fledgling FNN (now CNBC) with an old ticker (delayed) and your phone to call in orders. So you were basically trading in a void. When the markets opened Monday morning the Big SP contract was moving in 10 point moves only (versus the "usual" moves of a nickel or so).

The markets plunged until around 10 to 10:15 until there was manipulation of the XMI which led to a frantic rally which made many believe the bottom was in. Then the market reversed and ground relentlesly lower into a gut-wrenching close.

mm

MM, as I remember it, it JUMPED in 100 point increments on down. I don't remember any grinding, save my teeth and belly.

I was watching the tape and the Quotron and I was still behind the market. I actually had to have the wire operator (remember those?) ask for quotes on options in order to get something like a realistic quote. The quote services were useless.

Basically even "insiders" with current data feeds, direct lines to the floor and the like were still flying pretty blind. Joe the Plumber has far better data than we brokers had back then.

Mark