16 Day Cycle Low Due Monday +/-

I believe we are in a Wave B of an a-b-c decline and wave y of that wave of a w-x-y bearish flag. Out of that we need a wave -b- pullback here. A strong wave -c- rally is due next week from a low due Monday +/-. The Nov 5-6 dates being bandied about should be a top. The exact 13 week cycle top is due Nov 10, but has some variance. I expect a move down to 800 SPX by late Dec week 3/4. The larger 18 year cycle low is due Jan 12, 2009 and a move to a ST top Feb 15th would be expected. Overall, I believe this (Oct 2007/Dec 2008) is wave -b- of a larger Y WAVE from the Oct 2002 bottom and this whole WAVE is a WAVE IV. Could be we see SPX 1600 by March 2010. Wave Z of IV should take the SPX down to about 443 by JULY/OCT 2010 with an outside low of April/May 2011. I like the mining shares over the stock market as they are selling gold for $350 an ounce right now. I see gold near $2700 in the next few years with latest being 2016 and earliest 2010/12. Cycles in the mining shares bottomed Oct 24/27 and should make a secondary bottom around Nov17/21. Higher prices for the XAU should be expected into the third week of Dec and even the first trading day of January and then down into Feb 14/15.

blu,

So you see a high being set here in the first 1/2 of November? That would definitely be the bearish view. I am undecided. The Hurst cycles I follow are looking for an 18 month low. I am watching for that to form off the Aug. 2007 low (which was likely the last 4.5 cycle low as well). I found this Bradley chart. Note some of the dates.



Here's the Amanita version showing the important turns for the year in bold. I could see tax selling being a major factor here into yearend



cheers,

john

P.S. Remember, for those unaware, it is the turn dates that are significant on the chart, not necessarily the direction of the squiggily lines.

Edited by SilentOne, 31 October 2008 - 10:27 AM.

blu, You mention gold.....The chart is as ugly as she gets.....Double tops....Lower highs and lower lows.....She needs to go down and build a solid base for her to go up and stays up......
http://stockcharts.c...4990&r=9246.png

traderpaul,

Gold is likely to form a primary cycle low sometime in Nov. It would then likely lead to a bear rally, but a very tradable one. The 8.5 - 9.0 year cycle lows are further out into next year.

Gold Hurst Cycle Analysis

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 31 October 2008 - 10:57 AM.

SilentOne, That detailed Bradley chart you posted has been uncannily accurate in both pivots and turn directions. The dates match up near-perfectly with every major low/high this year --- so far. Thanks for posting it.

Edited by beta, 31 October 2008 - 11:24 AM.

What about this possible 8 year cycle in Gold and XAU?
http://i36.tinypic.com/52caw1.png

blu,

So you see a high being set here in the first 1/2 of November? That would definitely be the bearish view. I am undecided. The Hurst cycles I follow are looking for an 18 month low. I am watching for that to form off the Aug. 2007 low (which was likely the last 4.5 cycle low as well). I found this Bradley chart. Note some of the dates.



Here's the Amanita version showing the important turns for the year in bold. I could see tax selling being a major factor here into yearend



cheers,

john

P.S. Remember, for those unaware, it is the turn dates that are significant on the chart, not necessarily the direction of the squiggily lines.

Important tops in the stock market are usually made about every 13 weeks with a variance of +/- 2 weeks. The ideal top should be Nov 10. The 16 day cycle is due Nov 5 but can run +/- 4 days placing a possible top in the Oct 30/Nov 11 time frame. The 4 day cycle suggests Thursday next week +/- one day. The 8 day cycle suggests Thursday Oct 30 +/- 2 days, so we should be making a VST top and should come back down into Monday/Tuesday. The gold stock cycle based on the 8 year cycle suggests a low near GDX 18 on Tuesday next week, suggesting the VST low in the stock market to be about 10:30 EST Nov 4.

Right now, the stock market is in a ST up cycle into next week and topping around Wed/Fri. MY VST work suggests a pull back early next week to perhaps 892/93 SPX. A move to challenge the Oct 14 top near 1044 is in the works between Wed and Fri.

The 8 year cycle in mining shares bottomed Oct 24/27. The actual gold bullion cycle should not bottom until the first quarter of 2009 and a retest of 630/700 looks likely. Mining shares precede the bullion lows by about 3-5 months, suggesting a final low in Feb/Mar/April 2009 for bullion. The current recession is due to end around March/April 2009 based on the Armstrong cycle and this will give impetus for gold to rise as the economy comes back and the dollar starts a collapse.

The 8 year cycle for the mining shares makes a secondary bottom around Nov 17 and is strong up into Dec 20/21/22, strong down from the first trading day of 2009 into Feb 14/15, strong up into about Mar 9, strong down into April first and then strong up into May. A period of consolidation from May into Nov 17 2009 is expected and then strong up, very strong up into May/June 2010.

The stock market should be making a final B Wave low sometime between Dec 22 and Jan 12 near 790/800 SPX. The 18 year cycle is strong up between Jan 12 and Feb 1 and favors the NASDAQ over the SPX. The Benner/Armstrong Cycle tops in March/May 2010 and bottoms in 2011 around March/May. 2 important 4/8 year cycle lows suggest July/Oct 2010 for lows.