The Index of Consumer Sentiment was 57.6 in the October 2008 survey, a record 12.7 points below the 70.3
in September, and 23.3 points below last October’s 80.9. Since the cyclical peak was set in January 2007, the
Sentiment Index has declined by 41%, the largest peak to trough decline in history. The Index of Consumer
Expectations, a closely watched component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators that is noted for its ability
to foreshadow recessions, was 57.0 in October, down from 67.2 in September and 70.1 last October. The Expectations
Index has decline by 35% since its January 2007 peak.
MSCI was a very good indicator of market bottoms in two of the last major bear markets: 1973-1974 and 2000-2002. In both cases sentiment readings reached lows concurrently with market double bottoms.
The survey historic low was in May of 1980 at 51.7%, a figure that we will likely better to the downside..
Edited by linrom1, 31 October 2008 - 10:49 AM.
