a rough tape read on today's action in the context ...

thursday and friday, two upcloses in a row and the first two upcloses since mid september i am told, may be part of a chart pattern called a "creeper." most of you - maybe none of you - have may not have heard of this pattern but would recognize it if you think about it. here's the idea: after a strong upmove, as in the 11% one day gain last week, it is reasonable to expect some type of corrective sell-off. a "creeper" does this in a very deceptive way, since it is a high level consolidation with an uptrend to it. today and tomorrow, given the background election uncertainties, would be ideal candidates for two more days like thursday and friday, roughy speaking. if so, we can expect a rather violent UPSURGE, as this pattern implies. comments?

Edited by humble1, 03 November 2008 - 11:00 AM.

Humble: I have never heard of the creeper, but given scenario of Candlesticks, and Russell 2000 outperforming the large caps, and the bullish candlesticks formations on the weeklies, your analysis is right. I don't believe the candlestick nature ( in most cases ) can accurately predict future results.... Barry

make that "may not have heard" not "have may not have heard" - got called away before i could edit! anyway: thanks for the reply and the read, qqqq.

I see absolutely no reason to be chasing stocks after a 15% move on the indexes here. There is only one background noise and its a very poor economy that will not be fixed any time soon, no matter who wins. The uncertainty about the elections is about to be resolved, and the news should be sold, IMO, since we'll be left with the certainty... poor economy. That said, we for now know where the floor is, and many momentum measures turned up. So I think the pullback will be bought. I still think that the uptrend will be extremely choppy. And selling the spikes and buying the dips within the context of an IT grind up, may be the way to play it. btw, KOOL having the best volume in month today. Earnings this week too.

yes, i have KOOL on my watch list (i'm in at 1.12 and below, fwiw): i like the price move and the volume. nice action! AKS isn't too shabby, either. otherwsie, as you have probably guessed, i will be very surprised if ms. market lets the heavily underinvested mf and hedge folks in by giving them a sell-off. but, we will see in the fullness of time and thank you for your comment. p.s. that KOOL volume is so HUGE it is pretty clear somebody knows something and has told somebody else. if i wasn't already loaded in it i would buy more!

Edited by humble1, 03 November 2008 - 11:49 AM.

I see absolutely no reason to be chasing stocks after a 15% move on the indexes here. There is only one background noise and its a very poor economy that will not be fixed any time soon, no matter who wins. The uncertainty about the elections is about to be resolved, and the news should be sold, IMO, since we'll be left with the certainty... poor economy.

That said, we for now know where the floor is, and many momentum measures turned up. So I think the pullback will be bought.

I still think that the uptrend will be extremely choppy. And selling the spikes and buying the dips within the context of an IT grind up, may be the way to play it.


btw, KOOL having the best volume in month today. Earnings this week too.

If you are thinking about moves, we dropped so far the bounce will be larger than most. Intermediate term we are still way oversold. If you think it is too late to buy, we can easily continue 20 - 30% higher without a dip to buy. My question to you is given that scenario, do you have a point where you would buy, or do you require a dip to buy......

Barry

I see absolutely no reason to be chasing stocks after a 15% move on the indexes here. There is only one background noise and its a very poor economy that will not be fixed any time soon, no matter who wins. The uncertainty about the elections is about to be resolved, and the news should be sold, IMO, since we'll be left with the certainty... poor economy.

That said, we for now know where the floor is, and many momentum measures turned up. So I think the pullback will be bought.

I still think that the uptrend will be extremely choppy. And selling the spikes and buying the dips within the context of an IT grind up, may be the way to play it.


btw, KOOL having the best volume in month today. Earnings this week too.

If you are thinking about moves, we dropped so far the bounce will be larger than most. Intermediate term we are still way oversold. If you think it is too late to buy, we can easily continue 20 - 30% higher without a dip to buy. My question to you is given that scenario, do you have a point where you would buy, or do you require a dip to buy......

Barry

I'm already long and lightening up a little. Will only add back on the dips. Chasing isn't an option, IMO.

Comment-Haven't seen volume this low since August.

I see absolutely no reason to be chasing stocks after a 15% move on the indexes here. There is only one background noise and its a very poor economy that will not be fixed any time soon, no matter who wins. The uncertainty about the elections is about to be resolved, and the news should be sold, IMO, since we'll be left with the certainty... poor economy.

That said, we for now know where the floor is, and many momentum measures turned up. So I think the pullback will be bought.

I still think that the uptrend will be extremely choppy. And selling the spikes and buying the dips within the context of an IT grind up, may be the way to play it.


btw, KOOL having the best volume in month today. Earnings this week too.

If you are thinking about moves, we dropped so far the bounce will be larger than most. Intermediate term we are still way oversold. If you think it is too late to buy, we can easily continue 20 - 30% higher without a dip to buy. My question to you is given that scenario, do you have a point where you would buy, or do you require a dip to buy......

Barry

I'm already long and lightening up a little. Will only add back on the dips. Chasing isn't an option, IMO.

After looking at todays chart it looks like a good idea. I think we will goes sideways and down for the rest of the week. It looks like we have resistance we probably won't get through for the rest of the week....

Barry