Trades

Current trade...

I am currently in a full position of EEV (Profunds Ultrashort Emerging Markets exchange traded fund). I bought 1/3 at 88.00 on 11/3 (and simultaneously sold the November 105 call for a credit of 8.50), I added another 1/3 today right after the open at 81, and my last 1/3 near today's close at 73.50.
Reason for the trade. The ETF is down from a high of 198 only one month ago. Technically it could go lower than today's close but it is severely oversold. The general equity markets are mixed but cycles and the 1984 analog (which closely correlates to the 1984 elections and markets' reaction to the results) are pointing to a HIGH in this current time frame and a LOW on November 17-19th.
My strategy is to peel profits off of the final 1/3 of this position on a rally above 80 which will hopefully occur within the next two trading days. I will peel off the 2nd 1/3 (purchase at 81) on a rally to 89. On the surface this seems like an unrealistic goal to attain but look at the chart of this ETF going back one month. That decline was unbelievable and this stock has a tendancy to close it's gaps. It has a gap from yesterday at 89 and change. This could happen quickly.
At the very least I will "hedge" the 2nd portion of this position with a covered call but I will wait for a decent run-up to capture ample premium.
That's all for now, it's time to tune into Fox News and hope for a turnaround for Senator Candidate X. Wishful thinking I know, but that would be unexpected news and could cause a market rout tomorrow....

Posted here:http://kirksstocktradingblog.blogspot.com/

http://kirksstocktra...g.blogspot.com/

My short-term outlook is a pullback here and possible retest (of Sept. 10th low) on November 19th cycle turn. This is a possibility but it would have to take a a catastrophy to happen....more than likely a bounce off support in late November, a low but a higher low. Intermediate-term....after this low we rally into January/February time frame. On this sell-off into Nov. 19th I plan to accumulate positions in commodity ETF's and commodity/basic material stocks as well as a token position in one of the new 3X Direxion funds. I also like Platinum here, especially if it pulls back here. Long Term: I am in the bearish camp on stocks but bullish camp on the precious metals complex. I like silver especially (SLV and bullion), GLD and GDX. I would be careful with DGP though since it is an ETN....ETN's scare me. If the financial markets settle down a bit then PTM is the one to buy!

Since EEV is up a few bucks in pre-market and my last entry was at 73.50 I will exit 1/3 at 78.50 limit, day order.

blog update on cycles and trades:

http://kirksstocktra...g.blogspot.com/