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My theory....


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#1 cycletimer

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Posted 05 November 2008 - 05:24 PM

http://kirksstocktra...g.blogspot.com/

An Excerpt from my blog:
<<You may wonder how in the Hell I could possibly trade and manage positions in this volatile market when I work fulltime. In two words, very carefully. This is the essence of my "hedges" I put on. The covered call I wrote on my core position was not perfect. It only provided a 10% hedge and the EEV fell far below that level yesterday. If I had a crystal ball, I would have taken that premium I collected and purchased a put option for free, using the written call premium to pay for it. Instead I scaled in and took quick profits. The profits far outweighed the risk of holding the original core position at a loss. Needless to say, the EEV closed above my original buy price by over 3 points!
What to do now? The 92 handle acts as resistance but given the overall market sell-off today the emerging markets should tank tonight which will provide carryover tomorrow in the price of EEV. I plan to EXIT the entire position. I will first cover the short call at the market tomorrow and then immediately sell EEV.
Tomorrow's open I am exiting EEV. My theory held true that EEV has far more relative strength than SDS or QID, etc.
If I become bearish on a swing-trading basis (several days) I will often be buying EEV versus the other ultra-short ETF's. I may have to test the EEM on the upside on rally days to see if we get the same advantage.
You see, emerging markets are far, far more volatile than the US Markets, so you can capture more bang for the buck trading both instruments. In fact, the more people that trade them, the more volume and the more liquidity it offers us traders. I encourage you to do your own testing of EEV and EEM using your favorite charting, you'll be impressed.>>

Also, read my previous posts on why I chose buying EEV ahead of this market rout versus SDS or QID. It turned out to be a big winner. I sold out too early on most of my position but I Heck, I have a fulltime job! Read on!
Kirk

#2 humble1

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Posted 05 November 2008 - 06:22 PM

i can see you put a lot of thought into your work, cycletimer. what do you do during the day? i'm not asking anything specific or intrusive, just in general: you mentioned that you have a day job.

#3 cycletimer

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Posted 05 November 2008 - 08:25 PM

i can see you put a lot of thought into your work, cycletimer. what do you do during the day? i'm not asking anything specific or intrusive, just in general: you mentioned that you have a day job.


Hi Humble, I have read your posts with interest for years here....I am in Material Handling, that is....I sell Toyota Forklifts....people say "what? forklifts?!!!" Yes and business is good. You see, a forklift is are a NEED not a want, so it keeps me very busy. Incidentally, Toyota is the #1 selling forklift in America, for the same reason the Camry sells so well, the quality and engineering behind it. These Toyotas last a long time. What keeps my business thriving is that most large corporations lease them versus buy outright, so like a car lease, they turn them back in and I re-lease them in 4 or 5 years. The personal fitness training is a passion and I enjoy working with people who genuinely want to improve their health.
Take care and keep stopping by my blog, I update as often as I can and I promise to post each and every trade, win or lose.
Kirk

#4 vitaminm

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Posted 05 November 2008 - 09:54 PM

one may watch bid/ask spread on option!

http://bigcharts.mar...r...eq=7&time=3
vitaminm

#5 AChartist

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Posted 05 November 2008 - 10:25 PM

I got a small entry in EEV too, the same day, just before you mentioned it. Only 2.5% of account. Tomorrow may be W2 of 5 up so I'll also sell it on the open and pick it up again on the bounce day or next morning. 5% next time.

"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know

some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan


#6 AChartist

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Posted 05 November 2008 - 10:58 PM

Looks like we'll get a good fill on eev in the open, then bounce day, hit it again next morning.

"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know

some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan


#7 cycletimer

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Posted 06 November 2008 - 06:49 AM

Looks like we'll get a good fill on eev in the open, then bounce day, hit it
again next morning.


Good job AChartest! You know, this EEV is a unique discovery. I had heard that guy on CNBC's "fast money" mentioning it forever and I never paid attention, but once the emerging markets shot up so much in a very short period of time, I thought I might look into it and experiencent....test a theory. It is working like a charm to OUR advantage. I didn't even think to look at the options. You get HUGE leverage to the US market. WOW! I would only play with very small amount of capital on those though. I really do not like options unless I am selling them, either covered or credit spreads. We'll have a great fill this morning....except for my covering that written call!