AAII most BULLISH since May!

AAII:....................... TSP: (as of 11/05/2008) 56 Bullish: 44.83% ..........11/07/08 48% 36% 1.33 Neutral: 21.84% Bearish: 33.33% (as of 10/29/2008) 48 Bullish: 37.14% ..........10/31/08 27% 58% 0.47 968.75 10.49% Neutral: 22.29% Bearish: 40.57% (as of 10/22/2008) 50 Bullish: 38.74% ..........10/24/08 30% 56% 0.54 876.77 -6.78% Neutral: 22.52% Bearish: 38.74%

Edited by Rogerdodger, 06 November 2008 - 01:12 AM.

so do you fade this bullishness or ride it ?

oh oh...trouble.

AAII:....................... TSP:
(as of 11/05/2008) 56
Bullish: 44.83% ..........11/07/08 48% 36% 1.33
Neutral: 21.84%
Bearish: 33.33%

(as of 10/29/2008) 48
Bullish: 37.14% ..........10/31/08 27% 58% 0.47 968.75 10.49%
Neutral: 22.29%
Bearish: 40.57%

(as of 10/22/2008) 50
Bullish: 38.74% ..........10/24/08 30% 56% 0.54 876.77 -6.78%
Neutral: 22.52%
Bearish: 38.74%

Thanks for the information RD.

Cheers,

Bob-C

this is a good sign, methinks. (i hate all people so this is not an endorsement, lol.) the background news should support this. most on the street are waiting to see how the transition will go vis a vis the econ team. market folks don't like this uncertainty. but the choice of the COS indicates the new admin will hit the ground running. he already knows how to pull the levers of power. note that a press conference is planned for tamale. i would be very surprised if we don't get clear econ and finance and treasury and even fed answers, right away, as to who will be held over, if anyone, and who will be the main men in the new admin. i think we WILL get those answers. what if we find out that bernanke will be re-appointed as his term expires in 2009? how about paulson and volcker on a transition/advisory team? harvard larry summers as treasury secretary (he has already been one)? remember: i hate all these people as much as you do so that is not the issue. but IF we get something like this the street will feel it is not being thrown to the wolves. and it will set the table for a VERY BULLISH scenario: perhaps a strong close to the week and a firm market afterwards. comments?

this is a good sign, methinks.

(i hate all people so this is not an endorsement, lol.)

the background news should support this. most on the street are waiting to see how the transition will go vis a vis the econ team. market folks don't like this uncertainty. but the choice of the COS indicates the new admin will hit the ground running. he already knows how to pull the levers of power. note that a press conference is planned for tamale.

i would be very surprised if we don't get clear econ and finance and treasury and even fed answers, right away, as to who will be held over, if anyone, and who will be the main men in the new admin. i think we WILL get those answers.

what if we find out that bernanke will be re-appointed as his term expires in 2009? how about paulson and volcker on a transition/advisory team? harvard larry summers as treasury secretary (he has already been one)?

remember: i hate all these people as much as you do so that is not the issue. but IF we get something like this the street will feel it is not being thrown to the wolves.

and it will set the table for a VERY BULLISH scenario: perhaps a strong close to the week and a firm market afterwards.

comments?

Comment:

I think the realization is hitting that no matter what, this will all take time. Too many jobs are being lost. Economy slowing down too fast. The new president will only take office in January, it will take time to put any new policies in place and it will take even longer before they will start having any effect. In the meanwhile economy is erroding at an alarming rate. Fourth quarter earnings will be bad, but the First quarter 2009 earnings will be even worse as the employment situation kicks in in full force and consumers shut down.

I wouldn't be in a bg hurry to buy into any strength. But buying weakness and selling into strength may be tradable.

ogm: thanks for your comment. expectations are certainly low! the WMT report this morn is interesting. very little has been said about the huge drop in fuel prices going into the winter. and those gas prices - what a plunge. hmmmm ....

Despite the drop in natural gas, Duke is going to raise our rates. Seems that they bought at lot at the peak and now want us to pay that price, not the current price 50% lower. What do you want to bet that they'll load up again when prices rise?