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Stay Short? Look at VIX comparison to 2002


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 06 November 2008 - 10:51 AM

Today's VIX action makes me think we are going back to the BB median and maybe back to the top.
Look at this side-by-side comparison to 2002.
This last rally where VIX got back to the bottom BB saw a pathetic price rise compared to 2002.
It's early in the bear but it looks like price wants to go lower than the last low since it couldn't get back to the breakdown level near SPX 1100.
It's like the first kiss of the lower BB was rejected immediately whereas 2002 saw price continue to rally and the VIX hang around that lower BB.

Just for fun:
..................2002...............................................//.....2008............
Posted Image

Edited by Rogerdodger, 06 November 2008 - 11:03 AM.


#2 jjc

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Posted 06 November 2008 - 01:31 PM

Today's VIX action makes me think we are going back to the BB median and maybe back to the top.
Look at this side-by-side comparison to 2002.
This last rally where VIX got back to the bottom BB saw a pathetic price rise compared to 2002.
It's early in the bear but it looks like price wants to go lower than the last low since it couldn't get back to the breakdown level near SPX 1100.
It's like the first kiss of the lower BB was rejected immediately whereas 2002 saw price continue to rally and the VIX hang around that lower BB.

Just for fun:
..................2002...............................................//.....2008............
Posted Image


IMVHO , yaddy yaddy yadda....
I would say looking at the current tape 61.8% was the buy. SnP 905;

#3 jjc

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Posted 06 November 2008 - 01:34 PM

Today's VIX action makes me think we are going back to the BB median and maybe back to the top.
Look at this side-by-side comparison to 2002.
This last rally where VIX got back to the bottom BB saw a pathetic price rise compared to 2002.
It's early in the bear but it looks like price wants to go lower than the last low since it couldn't get back to the breakdown level near SPX 1100.
It's like the first kiss of the lower BB was rejected immediately whereas 2002 saw price continue to rally and the VIX hang around that lower BB.

Just for fun:
..................2002...............................................//.....2008............
Posted Image


IMVHO , yaddy yaddy yadda....
I would say looking at the current tape 61.8% was the buy. SnP 905;


I'll add here: they can't bring in down much further during normal trading hours without a bounce. Time to harvest.

#4 jjc

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Posted 06 November 2008 - 01:40 PM

Today's VIX action makes me think we are going back to the BB median and maybe back to the top.
Look at this side-by-side comparison to 2002.
This last rally where VIX got back to the bottom BB saw a pathetic price rise compared to 2002.
It's early in the bear but it looks like price wants to go lower than the last low since it couldn't get back to the breakdown level near SPX 1100.
It's like the first kiss of the lower BB was rejected immediately whereas 2002 saw price continue to rally and the VIX hang around that lower BB.

Just for fun:
..................2002...............................................//.....2008............
Posted Image


IMVHO , yaddy yaddy yadda....
I would say looking at the current tape 61.8% was the buy. SnP 905;


I'll add here: they can't bring in down much further during normal trading hours without a bounce. Time to harvest.


Whoops change in plans. Crash!