Has there been any other year like 2008 where.....

...we never made a higher high that year ( as we haven't this year) going into Xmas eve? If so, how did we close the year and start Jan the following year? I wondering if this year is unique, or similar has happened 1930 -1932 maybe ? anyone with such data. Also Seasonal good wishes and prosperous New Years to all. Mark.

I don't know , but the 1930 and 31 started off with a rally into spring.
Maybe it does the opposite, since many are expecting it to trade the same ?


link

I may be wrong but I think the 1990 Nikkei did the same thing.....if not it was real close!!

Mark, I did a quick check of the data for 1930-32. No time for an exhaustive study from 1930 to current. I might look at that after Christmas and get back to you, but anyways. This data is from TC2000. I do not know how to put the charts in this template so here is a summary. 1930 Began at 244.20. Then was down the first day of January. Market made the high for the year in April at 292. Last trading day market was at 164.60. 1931 Five point rally the first day. Peaked on 2/24/31 at 194.9. Declined the rest of the year and closed the year at 77.90 1932 Began the year at 71.60. First day down, but first five up. Peaked at 88.80 on 3/8/32 then declined to a low of 41 on 7/8/32. This was followed by a rally into September to 81.40 (doubled within two months). Ended the year at 60.30. Down for the year but with big swings.

I don't know , but the 1930 and 31 started off with a rally into spring.
Maybe it does the opposite, since many are expecting it to trade the same ?

link

Thanks CLK I checked that out, interesting, i've got some thoughts on that but will post after xmas.

I may be wrong but I think the 1990 Nikkei did the same thing.....if not it was real close!!

pwildbil you are not wrong, well remembered! .. I've put the chart below.

There are some definitely fractal similarities to our 2008 there....

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NIK...07966&r=888

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NIKK&p=D&st=1988-12-24&en=1992-12-24&i=p89335301279&a=157507966&r=888.png


best,
Mark

Edited by entropy, 24 December 2008 - 04:12 PM.

Mark, I did a quick check of the data for 1930-32. No time for an exhaustive study from 1930 to current. I might look at that after Christmas and get back to you, but anyways.

This data is from TC2000. I do not know how to put the charts in this template so here is a summary.

1930 Began at 244.20. Then was down the first day of January. Market made the high for the year in April at 292. Last trading day market was at 164.60.
1931 Five point rally the first day. Peaked on 2/24/31 at 194.9. Declined the rest of the year and closed the year at 77.90
1932 Began the year at 71.60. First day down, but first five up. Peaked at 88.80 on 3/8/32 then declined to a low of 41 on 7/8/32. This was followed by a rally into September to 81.40 (doubled within two months). Ended the year at 60.30. Down for the year but with big swings.

Thanks Redbrush, you inspired me to make the effort and look myself - I only can get data 1928-now.
Based on a visual search of each year, I only found 3 years that remotely match ours on the Dow.

They are 1969, 1973, 1974 - spot the pattern? right, they are clustered to together...very strange,
and I wonder if we'll see it again, 'cos as pwildbil pointed out the Nikkei in 1990 was similar and then had a run of horrible years.

I've put a weekly chart of the 1969-1975 cluster for everyone to see -
None of the years match exactly in that Jan1 was not down, and some had marginal new high, but
they are 'basically' the same.

I can't read too much into them. But 1969 is the closest to my current expectations of 2009( matching 1970), though
I don't expect a rally to retrace as far next year as it did into 1971, as I expect new low into 2010-2012.

http://img444.images...=badyearao6.gif

Edited by entropy, 24 December 2008 - 04:38 PM.

Tell a lie, 1977 was also and infact is the most similar, sold off from Jan 1, very similar right into Dec...and then Jan-feb 1978 were fugly. 1981 is also similar..not quite. I guess the thing I'm spotting here is that was a secular bear period - 1969-1982. best, Mark.

...we never made a higher high that year ( as we haven't this year) going into Xmas eve?

If so, how did we close the year and start Jan the following year?

I wondering if this year is unique, or similar has happened 1930 -1932 maybe ? anyone with such data.


Also Seasonal good wishes and prosperous New Years to all.

Mark.

Mark.. I dont know, but just follow the 1929-33 fractal. Looks good.

Cheers.

Mark, Your thread encouraged me to look at some long term market history. I opened a quarterly chart from the ealy 1900's to present and also found the period you identified interesting. I noticed a couple other points to consider. 1. First, I noticed that the part you identified, 69 top, correction into 70, and higher top in 73, looked to be part of the long term move that began from the 1930's. Although 69 was a major top followed by a significant correction and begun the long lateral period, it was a top that was confirmed by the quarterly MACD. The 1973 top was a higher high and was unconfirmed by the MACD. It was the divergent top in this time scale and this ended the long term move. I compared this to the current run from the early 1980's and found similarity in this divergence and pattern. The MACD confirmed the 2000 top, then we had a significant decline into 2002 similar to the the 69-70 correction, and then the final rally into the highs in 2007, which was then unconfimed by the Quarterly MACD. 2. So, that led me to compare the correction from the 73 top into the 74 bottom with the current correction from the 2007 top into the 2008 bottom. These declines seem to be the beginning phases of correcting the previous long term moves. (It is amazing that these declines of 50% appear as small blips on these long term charts). Anyways, in looking at these two declines I became more inclined to believe that the current decline has temporarily run its course with the exception of a retest of the November lows. From these lows I think we will have a significant rally or retracement prior to any further decline or long lateral trading pattern. Bill Bill

Mark,

Your thread encouraged me to look at some long term market history. I opened a quarterly chart from the ealy 1900's to present and also found the period you identified interesting. I noticed a couple other points to consider.

1. First, I noticed that the part you identified, 69 top, correction into 70, and higher top in 73, looked to be part of the long term move that began from the 1930's. Although 69 was a major top followed by a significant correction and begun the long lateral period, it was a top that was confirmed by the quarterly MACD. The 1973 top was a higher high and was unconfirmed by the MACD. It was the divergent top in this time scale and this ended the long term move.

I compared this to the current run from the early 1980's and found similarity in this divergence and pattern. The MACD confirmed the 2000 top, then we had a significant decline into 2002 similar to the the 69-70 correction, and then the final rally into the highs in 2007, which was then unconfimed by the Quarterly MACD.

2. So, that led me to compare the correction from the 73 top into the 74 bottom with the current correction from the 2007 top into the 2008 bottom. These declines seem to be the beginning phases of correcting the previous long term moves. (It is amazing that these declines of 50% appear as small blips on these long term charts). Anyways, in looking at these two declines I became more inclined to believe that the current decline has temporarily run its course with the exception of a retest of the November lows. From these lows I think we will have a significant rally or retracement prior to any further decline or long lateral trading pattern.

Bill

Right Bill, that is why I'm calling it a secular bear market. I know many don't use Elliot Wave, but its useful to talk about such
long term patterns. According to my Elliot Wave work, you are absolutely correct in your observations.
Put in EW terms on the chart below, the move from late 1930 to 1970'ish was PRIMARY WAVE 1, the 1970's secular bear was PRIMARY wave 2,
the move from 1982 to 2000'ish was PRIMARY WAVE 3, and we are now in PRIMARY WAVE 4.

I have had this forecast since mid 2004'ish, and showed charts to this fact, and what gives me confidence its right, is
the market did exactly what I said it would i.e
1. It topped WHEN and at the PRICE it was supposed to.
2. It has decline like it was supposed to.

WAVE 4 should run until 2012-2015, but the final price low will probably be 2010-2012, much like 1970's
secular low was before 1982.
*Also EW rules tell me that we should get a DOWN-UP-DOWN move to the final low....the UP move
will be 50-75% of the 1st DOWN move.

My best guess low will be around Dow 5000 area, I doubt we go much lower than that if I have this right.

Then PRIMARY WAVE 5 secular bull market will run until 2025-2030'ish, to dow 50,000 - 100,000.

You don't want to know what i believe occurs then, seriously.

This is the chart I did way backand no need to chage it so far, see my Pink target for Primary 4 around Dow 5000 2010-2012'ish

I am confident of this pattern, but if we should take out Dow 4000, then I'm wrong and something uglier is happening now.


http://img296.images...00counts7zl.gif

best,
Mark.