$SPX 60 Minute Chart

The 200 sma has acted as support since mid-Dec. on line charts. Even though price has broken down out of the ascending triangle, it might be worth following whether or not it's able to break back up into the pattern. This gives 2 defined trade signals. A close below the 200 sma for the sell signal...a close back above the triangle bottom line (upsloping blue dashed line) for a buy signal. (1 chart)

U.F.O.

fair and balanced thanks klh

Thx. Karen. If I had to take a position right here I'd go long. For now...still in cash. U.F.O.

After a long rally would you still be a buyer of this pattern. I'd call this a complex topping pattern close to failure. I'd be licking my chops to short this thing. (1 chart)

U.F.O.

hi UFO,

I admit price can now move in either direction within the current trading range.

Teaparty's chart posted here a while ago deserves consideration -

the ratio portion of the chart is of most interest to me now

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX...0243&r=7446

ONLY three daily closes recently reside above SPX $898 major price horizontal..scroll to the end of this chart thread -

http://forums.techni...35#post30798335

Edited by hiker, 27 December 2008 - 10:53 AM.

UFO=When I look at your chart, right side up or upside down, what comes to mind is the same. You broke out to the South legitimately-what I'd expect next would be a backtest of that failure-followed by a hard rollover. To me, there is nothing like a backtest for a great entry, as your risk is defined-and quite small at the point of the backtest.

Backtest of what? The low thus far? I think you already got that three times. 12/01..12/02..12/05. Three rejections of a low retest. Am I missing something here? U.F.O.

Using EMA's instead of SMA's gives a slightly different picture: [attachment=9196:12.26.08_60_min.gif] Here, both the 50-period and 100-period EMA's are essentially at the same price (877). Break both of these, and survive a test from below on the 200 ema (884 now), and I become a believer in higher prices. I think it was Larry that pointed out the fib relationship between the 3 up-swings I've got highlighted. It's my understanding that's what a Wave 4 is supposed to look like if it's doing a wedge or triangle. I did expect that Wave 4 would have lasted longer and gone farther than it has - could this be the completion of an "A", with a down "B", then a "C" up? If the red "flat" trendline breaks, then I'd expect a test of the blue DTL the 1st week of January - and that will be in the 780 neighborhood the 1st week of January