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IMHO, the SPX is ready to fall hard during the January OPEX period...

Started by Bob-C , Dec 27 2008 03:37 PM

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#1 Bob-C

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Posted 27 December 2008 - 03:37 PM

Hi everyone, the SPX is still hanging on by a thread and IMHO, will fall hard during the January OPEX period. Here is the SPX six-monthly-daily linear-regression (LR) chart.

http://charts.prophet.net/servlet/ChartServer?symbol=$spx&width=1360&height=700&price.display=3&duration=6m&frequency=0&price.scale=1&VOL=&hideevents=1&barsofar=1&LRC=100,,&MACD=5,17,5&MOM=7,,&STO=14,3,3&BB=20,2,&scheme=blugray&snapquote=1&service=ProphetSnapCharts&scsave=1&randomize=1.1942886695087353.png&realtime=1.png


Here is the SPX two-year-daily LR chart:

http://charts.prophet.net/servlet/ChartServer?symbol=$spx&width=1360&height=700&price.display=3&duration=2Y&frequency=0&price.scale=1&VOL=&hideevents=1&barsofar=1&LRC=100,,&MACD=5,13,3&MOM=7,,&STO=14,3,3&BB=20,2,&scheme=blugray&snapquote=1&service=ProphetSnapCharts&scsave=1&randomize=1.1942886695087353.png&realtime=1.png


Here is the SPX one-year-weekly LR chart:

http://charts.prophet.net/servlet/ChartServer?symbol=$spx&width=1360&height=700&price.display=3&duration=1Y&frequency=1&price.scale=1&VOL=&hideevents=1&barsofar=1&LRC=100,,&MACD=5,34,5&MOM=7,,&STO=14,3,3&BB=20,2,&scheme=blugray&snapquote=1&service=ProphetSnapCharts&scsave=1&randomize=1.1942886695087353.png&realtime=1.png

Here is the SPX five-year-monthly LR chart:

http://charts.prophet.net/servlet/ChartServer?symbol=$spx&width=1360&height=700&price.display=3&duration=5y&frequency=2&price.scale=1&VOL=&hideevents=1&barsofar=1&LRC=100,,&MACD=12,26,9&MOM=7,,&STO=14,3,3&BB=20,2,&scheme=blugray&snapquote=1&service=ProphetSnapCharts&scsave=1&randomize=1.1942886695087353.png&realtime=1.png

Here is the SPX daily chart with Full STO, MACD, and TRIX.


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p40607608075&r=5794.png

IMHO, SPX is looking weak and ready to fall from the upper TL of a broadening-bottom formation.

Here is the SPX daily TL chart:

http://chart.nu/char...8&filter=21.png

Here is the SPX daily chart:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p08006347172&r=658.png

The SPX daily Full STO has turned down and has crossed negatively under its signal line. Both the PPO and the MACD have inflected negatively and are about to cross under their signal lines.

Here is the SPX weekly TL chart:

http://chart.nu/char...06&filter=5.png

The SPX appears ready to drop down from the upper TL of its downward channel towards the lower downward TL.

Here are the SPX daily, weekly, and P&F Gallery Charts. The P&F bearish projection for the SPX is 810.

Cheers, :)

Bob-C
Disclaimer: None of my posts are meant to be taken as investment advice or trading advice. Do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any trades or investments.

#2 pdx5

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Posted 27 December 2008 - 03:41 PM

Thanks for your post, Bob. All I can say is I will add significantly to longs if we fall below 800. Above that level no more than nibbles.
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#3 Bob-C

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Posted 27 December 2008 - 03:54 PM

Thanks for your post, Bob.

All I can say is I will add significantly to longs if we fall below 800. Above that level no more than nibbles.


Hi pdx5, good to hear form you, thanks for your comments. :) IMHO, the PTB and the MMs will take the market down hard during the January OPEX period to load up their inventories and then launch the market sharply higher after the inauguration, this is standard merchandising procedure.

Good luck on your trades, :)

Bob
Disclaimer: None of my posts are meant to be taken as investment advice or trading advice. Do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any trades or investments.

#4 U.F.O.

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Posted 27 December 2008 - 04:11 PM

I haven't thought about this until now. With the FED now taking an equity interest in so many financial institutions, they have a vested interest not only in saving the financial system but also in seeing share prices appreciate. This may be the safest time in the history of the stock markets to be on the long side. Backstop bid courtesy of the Federal Reserve System? Maybe the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) should be renamed the Rally Assurance Team (RAT). U.F.O.
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#5 dcengr

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Posted 27 December 2008 - 04:13 PM

I haven't thought about this until now. With the FED now taking an equity interest in so many financial institutions, they have a vested interest not only in saving the financial system but also in seeing share prices appreciate. This may be the safest time in the history of the stock markets to be on the long side. Backstop bid courtesy of the Federal Reserve System? Maybe the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) should be renamed the Rally Assurance Team (RAT).

U.F.O.


Tell me..

The Fed's been doing this for how long and has it helped?

Granted maybe it will take some time. Then again, maybe it will taken even more time?

And does history tell us anything about how long it takes for intervention to work?
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?

#6 U.F.O.

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Posted 27 December 2008 - 04:24 PM

"And does history tell us anything about how long it takes for intervention to work?"

There's never been an intervention on this scale to deal with a financial problem this large. So the answer to the question is no...we're in untested territory. Makes it more interesting, doesn't it?

U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
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#7 Bob-C

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Posted 27 December 2008 - 07:17 PM

Hi everyone, here is the SPX ten-year-monthly chart:

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.png

Cheers, :)

Bob-C
Disclaimer: None of my posts are meant to be taken as investment advice or trading advice. Do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any trades or investments.

#8 IYB

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Posted 27 December 2008 - 07:28 PM

Hi Bob! I take it that you are looking for new lows for SPX in January, right? TIA, D
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” ― Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#9 Bob-C

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Posted 27 December 2008 - 07:49 PM

Hi Bob! I take it that you are looking for new lows for SPX in January, right? TIA, D


Hi D (Don?), nice to hear from you. :) I remain open to the possibility of a sharp decline for the SPX, QQQQs, INDU, NYA, AAPL, and GOOG among others in January during the January OPEX period which ends Friday, January 16, 2009. If, 810 on the SPX is taken out on the downside then IMVHO, a test of the 740-760 level will be likely. I have not said that I'm looking for new lows in the SPX however, since you mention it, if the SPX takes out 740 on the downside then new lows would likely follow shortly thereafter.

Have a nice weekend and good luck on your trades. :)

Cheers, :)

Bob
Disclaimer: None of my posts are meant to be taken as investment advice or trading advice. Do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any trades or investments.

#10 IYB

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Posted 27 December 2008 - 09:25 PM

Hi Bob! I take it that you are looking for new lows for SPX in January, right? TIA, D


Hi D (Don?), nice to hear from you. :) .... if the SPX takes out 740 on the downside then new lows would likely follow shortly thereafter.
Bob

Thanks Bob. I appreciate the charts and analysis. And indeed, a break of 740 would pretty much assure new lows. ;) Best of holiday cheer and good trading to you as well. Don
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” ― Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
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