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Can the $VIX give us any clues here?


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#1 StillLearnin

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Posted 28 December 2008 - 09:44 AM

Just looking at horizontal support/resistance on $VIX we have closed below the 1998 and 2002 highs. I think it is safe to say any more weakness on the $VIX and we see the 36 area. If price weakness is upon us on $SPX it should start now. From this vantage point $VIX sure looks like a double top and we have broken the neckline. Ill be watching. My guess is $VIX continues to fall

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=19&mn=3&dy=29&i=p41180350677&a=142509737&r=7517.png

60 min chart you can see no significant positve divergences on $VIX at the recent lows.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=29&i=p92225407038&a=157671736&r=1512.png

Also I have posted it once before but when considering put/call sentiment indicators definitely think you have to consider what this is suggesting....

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$CPCE&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p76859256055&a=154431237&r=7950.png

#2 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 28 December 2008 - 09:59 AM

Usually I would say this is Bearish, but volatility is lower due to Seasonal holidays. We'll see what happens in January and next week...

#3 GreatWarrior

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Posted 29 December 2008 - 09:38 AM

Just looking at horizontal support/resistance on $VIX we have closed below the 1998 and 2002 highs.


FYI, maybe you did not know this -- VIX is using a new methodology starting 2003 (if my memory serve me correctly). So I wonder is this graph is using the new method and back-dated to 1990, or it is a mix. If this is the later case, I wonder if you can make a case out of it at all.