Window painting, or whatever its called.
MY working guess is that we'll have a pullback for a few days from here. Complacency is too high.
After that we'll probably bounce again into Obama inaguration for a few days. And sell after that.
Once theinaguration trade is done there isn't really anything to look forward to on the bullish side. So we'll probably just errode from there.
This should be the end of the silly holiday squeeze.
Started by
ogm
, Dec 31 2008 03:29 PM
9 replies to this topic
#2
pdx5
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I want return OF my money more than return ON my money
Posted 31 December 2008 - 03:31 PM
How about the drop in initial unemployment claims?
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule
#3
Slothrop
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Posted 31 December 2008 - 03:37 PM
Worst year since 1931, SP down by 40% and you're seeing complacency, ogm?
#4
ogm
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Posted 31 December 2008 - 03:44 PM
Worst year since 1931, SP down by 40% and you're seeing complacency, ogm?
Yes. Complacency is extrodinary now.
I mean, c'mon, the Fed has fixed everything, gave everyone money, No one will ever fail again. Obama will stimulate the economy, create 3 mil jobs, Everything is fine. No more risk. Isn't that why the Volatility coming down and put/call dropping ?
The only thing to worry about now is what to buy for the oncoming super reflation /economic recovery trade.
Or not ...
#5
tommyt
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Posted 31 December 2008 - 04:08 PM
[quote name='ogm' date='Dec 31 2008, 12:29 PM' post='423997']
Window painting, or whatever its called.
dow marked and selling afterwards...agree with you overall scenario OGM...Happy New Year to ya!
Window painting, or whatever its called.
dow marked and selling afterwards...agree with you overall scenario OGM...Happy New Year to ya!
#6
U.F.O.
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U.F.O.
Posted 31 December 2008 - 04:44 PM
Let's see. Volatility ($VIX) is going dow and put/call is dropping. Hmmmmm. Complacency? Maybe. Or could it be that a rally is underway?
U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~
~Benjamin Franklin~
#7
zman
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Posted 31 December 2008 - 06:03 PM
first quarter of next year we shud see es close the gap around 791 i believe...happy new year all
Education is the best defense against the media.
#8
isaac613
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Posted 31 December 2008 - 06:33 PM
I am out of most of my longs today at the close. Bought SKF and SRS. Next year is definetly going to get horrible. Happy New Year to you all.
#9
U.F.O.
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U.F.O.
Posted 31 December 2008 - 06:43 PM
"Next year is definetly going to get horrible"
That sure is the common wisdom...at least here on FF. Why bring preconceived fundamental analysis into a trading plan? Why not just take the technicals that the market will give us and trade with either strength or weakness? I'm not smart enough to know whether or not the economy will get more horrible next year than it already is. I'm also not smart enough to call this end of year rally silly. The one thing I am smart enough to know is my forward looking version of what reality ought to be has lost me more money than it's made me.
U.F.O.
That sure is the common wisdom...at least here on FF. Why bring preconceived fundamental analysis into a trading plan? Why not just take the technicals that the market will give us and trade with either strength or weakness? I'm not smart enough to know whether or not the economy will get more horrible next year than it already is. I'm also not smart enough to call this end of year rally silly. The one thing I am smart enough to know is my forward looking version of what reality ought to be has lost me more money than it's made me.
U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~
~Benjamin Franklin~
#10
johngeorge
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Posted 31 December 2008 - 09:28 PM
The one thing I am smart enough to know is my forward looking version of what reality ought to be has lost me more money than it's made me.
I'll second that UFO.
FWIW from my point of view there appears more rally left to go. SPX closes over 920 and I can see 1000 in the cards, perhaps to 1030. As they say a rather basic Barack honeymoon rally. If not maybe a trip back to 850 area. For now I am in watchful waiting mode.
Good trading and a Happy New Year to all.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p11155873199&r=2278.png
Peace
johngeorge
johngeorge
