1/1/09: the big picture

it has been decades since wifey and H1 went out on new year's eve and needed to recover on 1/1, so i am left with using this day to theorize/speculate/fantasize about the future. the tricky thing about swingtrading markets, especially with all the excellent t/a tools and charts and cycle analysts (such as often seen here) is that it makes it all too easy to have an opinion first and justify it powerfully later. subjectivity is the enemy and is always ready to break into an unguarded mind! so, for balance let me/us? fantasize a bit about a different scenario than we see everywhere today, i.e. the guaranteed lower low somewhen down the trail. though i am a roaring and equity/spx loaded bull right now, i agree with that harsh outlook, just not from here and now. yet looking at the daily/weekly spx, i can see the case being made by those who see an irregular flat finished from 3/24/00 or a bullish flag in process from 9/1/98. does anyone here care to post a chart or opinion which would support either of those views going back, back, back?

Edited by humble1, 01 January 2009 - 06:54 AM.

it has been decades since wifey and H1 went out on new year's eve and needed to recover on 1/1, so i am left with using this day to theorize/speculate/fantasize about the future.



the tricky thing about swingtrading markets, especially with all the excellent t/a tools and charts and cycle analysts (such as often seen here) is that it makes it all too easy to have an opinion first and justify it powerfully later.

subjectivity is the enemy and is always ready to break into an unguarded mind!

so, for balance let me/us? fantasize a bit about a different scenario than we see everywhere today, i.e. the guaranteed lower low somewhen down the trail. though i am a roaring and equity/spx loaded bull right now, i agree with that harsh outlook, just not from here and now.

yet looking at the daily/weekly spx, i can see the case being made by those who see an irregular flat finished from 3/24/00 or a bullish flag in process from 9/1/98. does anyone here care to post a chart or opinion which would support either of those views going back, back, back?

Here is the Wollie wave count chart showing five waves up from 1974 and a flat correction from 2000 to 2008. He has wave three starting at the 11-21-08 low.

Me, I see a rally into spring no higher than 970 then lower lows into November 2009 with that 300 area as the target. So, we either rally to 1500 this year or drop to the "C" = 1.618 at 300. If You and Wollie are right the market must rapidly get to 1150 before 4-27-09 in an Elliott wave impulse five waves pattern, absent that my opinion is no chance at the flat completion at 11-21-08 being right.

Happy New Year,
Larry

thanks, larry. i appreciate your view and thanks for posting the wollie count. one slight correction: i am still in the "lower low is out there" camp but that we have to go up first, perhaps right into 7/18/09 (a date, for a high, on which i have a FAT worksheet.) with 1/26 and 2/10 up there along the way. after that i still like spx 443 as a final low, fwiw. my query was an attempt to balance out my own "opinion" with those of others who view things differently. that perpares me in case i am wrong, for one thing. H1

Edited by humble1, 01 January 2009 - 10:00 AM.

thanks, larry. i appreciate your view and thanks for posting the wollie count.

one slight correction: i am still in the "lower low is out there" camp but that we have to go up first, perhaps right into 7/18/09 (a date, for a high, on which i have a FAT worksheet.) with 1/26 and 2/10 up there along the way.

after that i still like spx 443 as a final low, fwiw.

my query was an attempt to balance out my own "opinion" with those of others who view things differently. that perpares me in case i am wrong, for one thing.

H1

The key is the first move up off the 11-21-08 low. So far we have a possible leading diagnoal wave 1, a near 38% drop to 857 wave 2 for the bull market camp. When the market opens Friday price is very overbought and right at the 20 day BB limit. Wave 3 must continue on up to 1150 quickly taking my breadth model past +50 bear market tops to +70/90 bull market tops. If instead it corrects back to 880/860 kiss the bull market camp good bye.

thank you, Larry, so very much for both charts and comments. have you already posted at TT - the subdivisions of the “impulsive” C down from the 2007 top? Happy New Year.

Edited by hiker, 01 January 2009 - 12:59 PM.