Recovery must be coming in 3rd quarter

They are all saying it. The new mantra. Recession ends Q3. I guess they feel all the bad news is already baked in. Me thinks that's a catalyst for a decent rally sometime here in the early new year. One "expert" is also forecasting gas prices to rise back to $3.00 per gallon by May 31st, and then drop to new lows by year end. Wallstreet and many companies also say they will be dumping everyone who is going to be fired for the year in Q1 and Q2. So I'd say the unemployment numbers will be ugly ugly ugly for the next 6 months, and earnings will be as well. So P/E's ought to be expanding quite a bit. MY FF is the year ends down at least 10 to 15% from current levels on S&P and Dow. naz could be worse. I think I'm in the minority calling for that, but i also think we could see an S&P 500 over 1100 at some point this year. Most of the prognosticators are calling for as high as 20% higher than current levels by year end.

In the mo-mo, monkey-see-monkey-do world of Wall Street, they can talk themselves into a rally, then later see the error of their ways and reverse it all.

Technical stops a must... to avoid making a big error. Personally, I think this is W4 action...

Edited by HoseB, 02 January 2009 - 10:30 AM.