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Simplified Position Poll


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Poll: Are You Currently Net: (149 member(s) have cast votes)

Are You Currently Net:

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#21 U.F.O.

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Posted 04 April 2004 - 08:58 PM

TM and all. I agree that at this point we probably need to see what Mark wants to do with continuing an actual position poll, if anything. If we do continue one, IMO, as simple as possible would seem wise until we can see if that streamlined format produces usable results. I'd like to thank everyone for their participation and feedback in this little weekend test poll I started. Best. U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~

#22 U.F.O.

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Posted 04 April 2004 - 10:22 PM

flyers&divers, As far as how has the market been relating to news developments, how would you use the poll data? How could subjective opinions from us about the market's responsiveness to news be used in a trading capacity? U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~

#23 flyers&divers

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Posted 05 April 2004 - 07:11 AM

As far as how has the market been relating to news developments, how would you use the poll data? How could subjective opinions from us about the market's responsiveness to news be used in a trading capacity?


U.F.O.

I use how the market responding to the news all the time in how I liquidate positions.

While I enter positions based on a set of fairly strict parameters I often get out on other considerations then the steps involved in the setup. One is when there is a disconnect between how the market is supposed to be acting and how it is actually acting. If it is not acting the way it is supposed to it is likely that big money is voting with their dollars the other way and a surprise is likely and because I trade in a 3-4 day timeframe I can't afford to be around by the time the swingback is under way. If the market is not acting right in relation to news background I simply liquidate. So basically I would like to know if the market is on target as far as expectations are concerned.

The reason I am so interested in this is that the turn in larger swings can be discerned well by the various breadth oscillators so wonderfully posted here but the at the three-four day cyle tops and bottoms occur where reality (where the price is actually going) and perception separate. One of the components is sentiment being out of line the other is the market not responding. The market shifts, no one understands why and by the time the breadth figures show a turn half of a swing is over.

Back to the daily poll.

Your simlified poll shows the amazing gap between collective opinion and the actual record of people's positioning. This is valuable. I think both polls should be run (what members think of the market vs what they doing in the market) and the swings between sentiment and reality could be more useful than the current daily poll alone.
"Successful trading is more about Sun Tzu then Elliott." F&D

#24 U.F.O.

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Posted 05 April 2004 - 07:55 AM

10/4 F & D. I read you now. U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~