11 replies to this topic

[mss]

Below is a chart showing the relationship between SPX & VXO. The VXO is inverted to give a better picture of their relationship. Key points are marked with vertical lines. The horizontals are %55,2 BB bands.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$ONE:$VXO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p64246695801&a=159907575&r=5963.png

mss

[SilentOne]

hi scott, My guess is that you've ruled out the double bottom. This week and next is going to be interesting. cheers, john

[mss]

Hi john, no have not ruled out the double bottom, it has just gone to low odds at this point. I still maintain that 741 will be tested, get a deadcat bounce, and then fail. 700/695 has a 85% chance of happening by mid year - OR sooner. Just my opinion, which is always subject to change based on what the market/charts etc. show me. Be careful and have a great week. mss

[mss]

Based on the VXO relationship to the SPX we have a long way to go before any meaningful turn. mss

[SilentOne]

hi mss,

Based on the VXO relationship to the SPX we have a long way to go before any meaningful turn.

I thought you'd say that. Thanks for keeping that chart posted and live. I've been taking peeks at it the last few days.

March 6-9th is a turn date. It'll be interesting to see if we can get some kind of good low to trade. If it turns out to be another high, man are the markets are going to be weak for a while yet.

I dumped my Canadian telcos (BCE-T, BA.UN-T) today. Good dividend payers and they were being sold. I'm just trying to collect some dividends and even that may not be working here. Despite good entries last quarter, I will not sit idly by on losing positions.

cheers,

john

[SilentOne]

hi scott,

Did you notice the divergence today? I'm getting a little concerned with the quality of this particular high if it tops out tomorrow.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$ONE:$VXO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p64246695801&a=159907575&r=5963.png

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 02 April 2009 - 05:17 PM.

[Mike]

Here's a chart that shows the percentage of spx stocks above the 10 day ma. Using the following link you can change the parameters to a range of other time periods, etc. Bears some resemblance to the vxo. (I was able to post this chart by right clicking on the chart, clicking properties, copying the address, and pasting it into the "insert image" button/option above.)

SPX - % of stocks above 10dma - chart

Edited by Mike, 03 April 2009 - 11:41 AM.

[SilentOne]

Did you notice the divergence today?

And now that divergence seems to have disappeared.

cheers,

john

[Mike]

My view on the major mkts. is summed up by the following chart. Is today (thur, 4/9) a breakout at 85? Tomorrow is a holiday so I'm thinking monday will be a gap down. Vol. has dried up, rsi diverging, and my doctored up slow stochastic has been good at calling peaks. That jan. peak around 93 and gap look like a strong magnet, but I don't think we're going to get there on this rally. A decline and reversal around the nov. low would be perfect.

MK

http://stockcharts.c...06960&r=772.png

[mss]

Nice chart Mike and time will tell, but I think we fail at this area and return back to test the 803 SPX zone before we breakout. mss