85 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

Thanks Lysis. I've worked the Hurst cycles for a while now and I am getting more confident with what it tells me. The $SPX has the been trickiest market I have studied in the last year though.

Crude is banging at the top of its price channel as of yesterday so one has to exepct a pull back now. The USO target was essentially reached (~31) as forecasted for the current 28 day cycle. Note that this was the first time the 28 day FLD target was met as previous signals since last summer repeatedly failed. I'll be looking to buy a trading position again at the next 14 day cycle low.



cheers,

john

P.S. swanstkdh, I don't follow the NATGAS market. Months ago I decided that it has been overwhelmed by the fundamental shift in shale gas production.

Edited by SilentOne, 20 March 2009 - 08:28 AM.

[swanstkdh]

You are awesome with the cycle work. I am looking at going back to a trading position as well. 14 day cycle from yesterday eh???

[SilentOne]

swanstkdh, The last 14 day cycle low was 11/03. We are now about mid-cycle in the current 14 day cycle. This is specific to USO. cheers, john

[inamosa]

Any thoughts on natural gas? Bought it today (via UNG) as a longer-term investment Keep up the great work John

[Echo]

Thanks Johns and great work on USO. For anyone scratching their heads for a few seconds, 11/03 is 03/11 here in the USA. So using 14 trading days cycle, you expect the next 14 day low to be around March 31? Thx, Echo

[SilentOne]

hi echo,

So using 14 trading days cycle, you expect the next 14 day low to be around March 31?

Nominally the next 14 day low should come in March 30. I expect it a bit early, so my wager is it is a buy no later than Friday March 28th. I'm thinking of looking for first entry though after the oil inventories report mid-week. This should be a 5/5.5 week cycle low. What do you think?

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 21 March 2009 - 09:29 AM.

[SilentOne]

Crude oil is coming into a 14 day cycle low and a 28 day low. I expected it to be as early as Friday, but now I am beginning to wonder. I added back some USO and USL after the oil inventories report, but I am not sure whether to increase that holding or add leverage with HOU.TO. I'll wait, but be aware that there are higher targets for USO near $34, a target generated with the 56 day FLD. Oil is stuck under $55 resistance and is near the top of the price channel. Tricky. I am hoping for a pullback to the top of the gap to buy more. But we may not get it here. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 26 March 2009 - 11:40 AM.

[SilentOne]

Crude took out Tuesday's low this morning so that confirms that we are heading into a 14 TD low today to early next week. This will also be a 28 day low (5.5 week cycle) which should prove to be a good entry point if this market is bullish. I believe this market is bullish for two reasons. Crude put in a very right translated high here for the 28 day cycle. Secondly, the 28 day FLD target (~ $31 as shown below) was exceeded as USO rose to 32.29 yesterday. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 27 March 2009 - 09:25 AM.

[SilentOne]

Today should confirm the arrival of the 14 and 28 TD cycle lows. If this market is bullish, price should climb back into the channel and head for +$60. I have a price target for USO for example of $35 in the coming 28 day cycle (56 day FLD target). cheers, john

[SilentOne]

Crude is in its 5th day of this correction. That is not a good sign. Looks to me like the market has spoken. The uptrend is most likely over for now and my bullish bias has evaporated. Today is the 5th day down in this correction and without a reversal at a 14 and 28 day cycle low, this is possibly a new downtrend. One decent rule to follow is that correctons to a trend should not last more than 4 days max. Also we broke below the price channel and have not been able to regain it which is an issue. Add the fact that we are getting all these bearish signs in the equity markets which is not supportive. The $SPX is due for its 5 week low in the coming week. I have to step back here and watch a while. What a market. Oh yeah, what a bear market. The selling does not look severe on the crude, but price rules for now. cheers, john