*Join Tim Ord and Ike Iossif (Of Aegean Capital & MarketViews.TV) for 6/ 5 Seminar (402-486-0362). April 1 show, http://marketviews.t...sts/Ord/pg1.htm
**Both Tim and Ike are frequently ranked in the top 10 timers for "Timer Digest".
***Look for Tim's article in the May issue of the "Stock and Commodities Magazine".
For 30 to 90 days horizon: Short S&P on 4/6/04 at 1148.17.
Short term trades, one day to one-week horizon: Flat.
We have "800" phone update that cost $2.00 a min. and billed to a credit card. Call (1-970-224-3981) for sign up. We update Eastern time at 9:45; 11:30; 1:30; 3:30 and 4:00. Question? Call me (402) 486-0362.
What to expect now:
A bearish candlestick pattern called a "Three Gap Play" was trigger on the third gap that appeared on April 2. The other two gaps appeared between March 23 to 24 and March 26 to 29. The third gap appeared on April 2 was the biggest of the three and is referred to as the "Exhaustion Gap" and marks the end of the move. "Three Gap Plays" have a minimum down side target from where the first gap began, which in this case is the 1090 area. It could do much more then that. The current rally appears to have been the "Last Point of Supply" which shows up after the "Sign Of weakness" that developed from the March 5 high down to the March 11 low. After the "Last Point of Supply" is completed, the bulk of the decline begins. It appears we are at or near this stage now. We have a downside target near the 960 level on the S&P that may be reached in the 60 to 90 days. We are short the S&P cash at 1148.17.
Nasdaq Composite:
A "Three Gap Play" was also triggered on the Nasdaq with the final "Exhaustion Gap" appearing on 4/2. On 4/5 the Nasdaq traded above the previous swing high of 3/5 on a 17% decrease in volume and then closed below the 3/5 high, creating a bearish "Upthrust". Therefore, it appears the Nasdaq is also making a top near current levels. The Nasdaq gapped down from 4/5 to 4/6, leaving a gap between 2080 to 2068. It appears likely the Nasdaq will go back up and fill the gap at 2080 and test the 4/5 high before the next declines begins. We will watch the 4/5 high at the 2080 level for a re-test and a potential bearish trigger signal. The first downside target will be the previous low near the 1900 level.
Interview with Ike Iossif show for April 1, MarketViews.TV. Next interview will come tomorrow April 8. We will log the link on our report.
GOLD Market:
The XAU is still in a trading range defined by 105 down to 96. We have a time cycle due in late April and maybe the time where the XAU starts it's next impulse wave to the upside. Patience is need for the next couple weeks. Our longer term upside target remains 150 on the XAU.
We added CBJ today (3/31/04) at 3.13.
Long NXG (3/22/04) at 2.53.
Long BGO 1/2 position at 3.75 on 3/23 and another 1/2 position at 3.75 today (3/24). BGO may pull back to 3.00 to 3.20 area and not change the bullish picture. The bigger picture has an upside target near 6.00.
Long GSS 1/2 position at 6.40 on 3/18. Support now comes in at 6.40. The bigger pattern has an upside target near 13.50. Today (4/7/04) we added PMU at 1.19.
The McClellan Oscillator closed at -11. This indicator has turned down the Summation index.
The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed today at .53 and neutral territory.
“Five day ARMS” indicator is at 3.75. This indicator is bearish.
Conclusion: Short the SPX on 4/6/04 at 1148.17.
Longer Term Trend: Neutral.
