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#21 rkd80

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Posted 06 June 2009 - 07:16 PM

FWIW, I don't like to see big spikes in the % of Bulls in either AAII or II. That said, it's only a short-term Signal.

We're a long way away from a good sentiment set up for a major top.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1980-01-28&i=p39183268817&a=149688849&r=179.png
Context is everything.



Don,

Go back and take a look at market historical periods with a secular bear trend. Pick a secular bear period (1966-82 for example). What was the average length of a bear run? Keep in mind the recent bear run went from Oct 07 to Mar 09 or 18 or so months. Compare this bear run to historical averages in time and price. You will find it is about avg in time and more than avg in price.

Believe me, I've spent a lifetime studying such things. :o And the conclusion I reached years ago is that Context is Everything. Look, if we were above a rising 200 day/55 week/13 month moving average, we wouldn't even be having this discussion. In May of 2003, I was shouting the points made by many in this string from the rood tops. You all KNOW that. Because the context was that of a primary bull market. Because we'd had a long term base, a break through the 13 month MA and that MA had turned upward. Because the market having done the necessary work to support a primary bull trend had broken through and confirmed the new primary direction.

I maintain that those who say that we are in a new primary bull market now are arguing with the evidence and the facts. They are guessing, hoping, or maybe just scared or being left behind. The evidence as shown by this chart among other data, clearly says: Primary Bear Market. When that changes, as Ross Perot used to say "I'm all ears" to your arguments.

The whole argument we are are having in this string is not about short term or Intermediate Term signals. It is about CONTEXT. Run those same arguments by me when we are above a rising 13 month (or 200 day) MA, and then you won't get any of this argument from me. ;) ;)

Good trading, D


Don,

By your own metrics (200dema, 55wema, 13mema) the NDX/qqqq IS in a new bull market....right now. The NDX100 is above each of your moving avgs AND they are upward sloped! So are you calling a bull for the QQQQs? I have read recently you shorting them. The SPX was LOADED with financials which has crippled it so it's lagging IMO. The R2K is close to signaling a bull market by your measures.

In context, the price damage done by this bear run over such as short time period (Oct 08 to Mar 09) is distorting the MAs. There are plenty of other KISS indications I mentioned that argue heavily for at least the strong possibility of a new bull. The problem with using a single minded technique is they simply will not work all the time. Your method has worked in the majority of historical contexts. I even use the 50wkema and slope myself. The problem has been that this bear is ahistirical...similar to the 1973-74 bear. Again, the 55wk, 200d and 13m MA would have caused you to miss the majority of the bull run that sprang out of that one.

I'm not trying to fire up a debate with you...just trying to spur "out of your box" thinking.



The Qs are NOT in a bull market, looking at the EMA is not enough. The historgram of a simple MACD is proof positive that the Naz/Qs are still short of a bull market.
But if you were to pretend that it is, I somewhat recall another time when the Qs were waaaaaay ahead of the general market. Way ahead.

I think it was about 9 years ago and what followed, was not pretty.
“be right and sit tight”

#22 Cirrus

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Posted 06 June 2009 - 07:26 PM

FWIW, I don't like to see big spikes in the % of Bulls in either AAII or II. That said, it's only a short-term Signal.

We're a long way away from a good sentiment set up for a major top.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1980-01-28&i=p39183268817&a=149688849&r=179.png
Context is everything.



Don,

Go back and take a look at market historical periods with a secular bear trend. Pick a secular bear period (1966-82 for example). What was the average length of a bear run? Keep in mind the recent bear run went from Oct 07 to Mar 09 or 18 or so months. Compare this bear run to historical averages in time and price. You will find it is about avg in time and more than avg in price.

Believe me, I've spent a lifetime studying such things. :o And the conclusion I reached years ago is that Context is Everything. Look, if we were above a rising 200 day/55 week/13 month moving average, we wouldn't even be having this discussion. In May of 2003, I was shouting the points made by many in this string from the rood tops. You all KNOW that. Because the context was that of a primary bull market. Because we'd had a long term base, a break through the 13 month MA and that MA had turned upward. Because the market having done the necessary work to support a primary bull trend had broken through and confirmed the new primary direction.

I maintain that those who say that we are in a new primary bull market now are arguing with the evidence and the facts. They are guessing, hoping, or maybe just scared or being left behind. The evidence as shown by this chart among other data, clearly says: Primary Bear Market. When that changes, as Ross Perot used to say "I'm all ears" to your arguments.

The whole argument we are are having in this string is not about short term or Intermediate Term signals. It is about CONTEXT. Run those same arguments by me when we are above a rising 13 month (or 200 day) MA, and then you won't get any of this argument from me. ;) ;)

Good trading, D


Don,

By your own metrics (200dema, 55wema, 13mema) the NDX/qqqq IS in a new bull market....right now. The NDX100 is above each of your moving avgs AND they are upward sloped! So are you calling a bull for the QQQQs? I have read recently you shorting them. The SPX was LOADED with financials which has crippled it so it's lagging IMO. The R2K is close to signaling a bull market by your measures.

In context, the price damage done by this bear run over such as short time period (Oct 08 to Mar 09) is distorting the MAs. There are plenty of other KISS indications I mentioned that argue heavily for at least the strong possibility of a new bull. The problem with using a single minded technique is they simply will not work all the time. Your method has worked in the majority of historical contexts. I even use the 50wkema and slope myself. The problem has been that this bear is ahistirical...similar to the 1973-74 bear. Again, the 55wk, 200d and 13m MA would have caused you to miss the majority of the bull run that sprang out of that one.

I'm not trying to fire up a debate with you...just trying to spur "out of your box" thinking.



The Qs are NOT in a bull market, looking at the EMA is not enough. The historgram of a simple MACD is proof positive that the Naz/Qs are still short of a bull market.
But if you were to pretend that it is, I somewhat recall another time when the Qs were waaaaaay ahead of the general market. Way ahead.

I think it was about 9 years ago and what followed, was not pretty.


:huh:

So now the MA's are qualified with MACD? I don't recall Don ever placing exceptions on his MAs for MACD or anything else. In the end "men believe what they want to believe". There will always be one more indicator, one caveat, or whatever else to pull up to argue a bull case or a bear case REGARDLESS of what the market is actually doing.

My point is simply "the market is going up"----and has been for 3 months. It's gone up a lot, too. People here are bearish for the most part. I'm like the next guy...it feels overextended and looks ready to correct....but it's going up. That's my whole point I'm trying to make today.

It was discussed eons ago on this board that the most powerful trading opportunities come when you get sentiment leaning against a trend. I would argue that in some cases we are getting that.
Where does Don mention the MACD?

#23 rkd80

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Posted 06 June 2009 - 08:19 PM

I am not speaking on Don's behalf, just mine. As far as Don's charts are concerned and his 13 ema, he is using the SPX chart - so you can't very well take the same parameters and drop them onto a different chart (an etf no less) I posted a chart to illustrate what I mean, specifically for you (in a separate post).

Edited by rkd80, 06 June 2009 - 08:20 PM.

“be right and sit tight”

#24 MoneyFriend

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Posted 06 June 2009 - 08:30 PM

I am not speaking on Don's behalf, just mine. As far as Don's charts are concerned and his 13 ema, he is using the SPX chart - so you can't very well take the same parameters and drop them onto a different chart (an etf no less)

I posted a chart to illustrate what I mean, specifically for you (in a separate post).


RKD I'm loving the new avatar!!! Much less intimidating! :)

#25 rkd80

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Posted 06 June 2009 - 08:34 PM

I am not speaking on Don's behalf, just mine. As far as Don's charts are concerned and his 13 ema, he is using the SPX chart - so you can't very well take the same parameters and drop them onto a different chart (an etf no less)

I posted a chart to illustrate what I mean, specifically for you (in a separate post).


RKD I'm loving the new avatar!!! Much less intimidating! :)


You got it friend, its actually much more reflective of how I feel too. :huh: :D
“be right and sit tight”

#26 Cirrus

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Posted 06 June 2009 - 10:06 PM

To change the subject...it seems like many here are Dr. Johns rather than Fat Tonys (characters from "The Black Swan")


Fat Tony & Dr. John Page 122, 123 preview LINK


Thanks Roger...love the two characters. My point is the ability to think outsided the box. With the market trend so many want the magic solution that always works...this indicator or that indicator. They will develop and indicator that works and then, suddenly it doesn't work so it is 'retweaked' to be foolproof with past data sets.

Markets rhyme with previous historical periods. There are some basic factors, indicators or methodologies that work much of the time..but not always. CLK pointed ot 5 major global indexes that are in bull markets right now (he missed EWA or Australia which is 6). Our QQQQ is in bull mode and the IWM is getting closer.

To Don's credit...I should add that I was around in 2003. I remember Don calling the new bull as he said...I remained bearish and was flat out wrong. Don did well that year if I recall. If I recall correctly I didn't turn bullish until a few months or so after Don called the bull. I would like to think I've grown as a trader and investor since then but one can always learn more and get better in this business.

Edited by Cirrus, 06 June 2009 - 10:10 PM.


#27 IYB

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Posted 07 June 2009 - 12:14 AM

By your own metrics (200dema, 55wema, 13mema) the NDX/qqqq IS in a new bull market....right now. The NDX100 is above each of your moving avgs AND they are upward sloped!

What upward slope? :huh: :o The downward slopes are steeper than ever! That's really the main substance of this entire argument. We need a base so that they can break that steep downward slope and be in a position to actually turn up. :blink: D

http://stockcharts.c...86632&r=984.png

http://stockcharts.c...00168&r=867.png

http://stockcharts.c...86755&r=726.png
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#28 Cirrus

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Posted 07 June 2009 - 12:41 AM

By your own metrics (200dema, 55wema, 13mema) the NDX/qqqq IS in a new bull market....right now. The NDX100 is above each of your moving avgs AND they are upward sloped!

What upward slope? :huh: :o The downward slopes are steeper than ever! That's really the main substance of this entire argument. We need a base so that they can break that steep downward slope and be in a position to actually turn up. :blink: D

http://stockcharts.c...86632&r=984.png

http://stockcharts.c...00168&r=867.png

http://stockcharts.c...86755&r=726.png



Don,

Those charts use MAs not EMAs....I just looked at a chart on my tradestation of the NDX with the 13m/55w/200d EXPONENTIAL ma which confirms my point...they are above and the slope is up.

Why do you use EMAs on your seven sentinel material but not now?

:o

#29 IYB

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Posted 07 June 2009 - 12:41 AM

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RUT&p=W&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&i=p61256487234&r=3687.png
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#30 Cirrus

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Posted 07 June 2009 - 12:44 AM

Don...again, Why do you typically use EMAs and now suddenly just MAs?