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[SilentOne]

A market I started following closely of late is India. Why? Well I'm looking for this market to give me clues on the $SPX and the current phasing I am using (Bob's original of course). I'm also much more bullish on the prospects for a country like India than say western countries. Even more bullish than China actually because India has great demographics to keep wind in its sails for a long time. I prefer the following phasing (see below) for India and ICICI Bank (symbol IBN) is a great proxy IMO. This chart below shows that IBN bottomed in the middle of the 2000 - 2002 bear market. It was actually in the days following 9/11. Not much of a surprise when you look back. So India and IBN put in a 9 year low at that time and if I track the 4.5 year and 18 month cycles, this is what it looks like. The next 4.5 and 9 year lows are due next year at the next 18 month low. The bounce seen in the Indian exchange and this bank were good out of the 18 month low from March 2009, and soon both will top out and start the slide into the final nest of lows. A great long term buy is likely late summer 2010 (July - Sept.). One important feature of this phasing for IBN's 9 year cycle is how the 4.5 year cycle bottom in 2006 led to the great rally in India and many other emerging markets. It suggests (without looking back prior to 2000) that 2001 was also an 18 year low and possibly a 36 year low for the Indian market. Since the 9 year cycle was right translated, a great rally should emerge for India out of the 9 year cycle low. So why is this important for the $SPX? Well, the next 18 month lows for the $SPX are due about August 2010 and should retest or undercut this year's lows. India's phasing is slightly offset from that of the SPX. It should bottom early as it did early in the 2000 - 2002 bear market, before the $SPX finally leaves its bear market. I will bring this thread up next year at the time I expect to buy IBN/India and show see where we are. There is always the chance that long term lows have been seen for equities, not a possibility I subscribe to. But if that were the case, then India and this bank won't look back. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 16 June 2009 - 10:23 AM.