Soybeans may have topped out this year, but corn and wheat look like they can make new bull runs. I can't remeber where I found these long term cycle charts (maybe Jake Bernstein?), but it is worth a view.
cheers,
john
Grains Hurst Cycles
Started by
SilentOne
, Jul 08 2009 09:56 AM
4 replies to this topic
#1
SilentOne
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 3,452 posts
Member
Posted 08 July 2009 - 09:56 AM
I've looked at the long cycles for grains and DBA in particular. DBA is an ETF that is comprised of 3 grains (wheat, corn, soybeans) and #11 sugar.
There seems to be a dominant 33/34 week cycle that one can speculate on. I've shown it here though I am not convinced of the longer cycle periods. But a long here in DBA is worth a shot and I have entered a partial position near yesterday's close and may add if we get a confirmed reversal. I have been eyeing this commodity sector for a while and have been thinking that a tradeable low should be seen here this summer.
Soybeans may have topped out this year, but corn and wheat look like they can make new bull runs. I can't remeber where I found these long term cycle charts (maybe Jake Bernstein?), but it is worth a view.
cheers,
john
Soybeans may have topped out this year, but corn and wheat look like they can make new bull runs. I can't remeber where I found these long term cycle charts (maybe Jake Bernstein?), but it is worth a view.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#2
dowdeva
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 525 posts
Member
Posted 16 July 2009 - 06:24 PM
Silent One,
Do you think we've reached it? I noticed corn futures have reached long term support here?
Thanks for all the good work you do, here and on other boards.
Deva
#3
SilentOne
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 3,452 posts
Member
Posted 19 July 2009 - 11:57 PM
hi dowdeva,
Wheat and corn are looking better but need to start a rally soon. Soybeans need to bounce soon. There's nothing convincing to show a bottom has been printed. I'm still long DBA.
The fertilizer stocks have caught a bid this week. I'm long a trade in AGU from Monday's (13th) close.
cheers,
john
P.S. Nice avatar!
Edited by SilentOne, 19 July 2009 - 11:59 PM.
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#4
SilentOne
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 3,452 posts
Member
Posted 24 July 2009 - 09:04 AM
I've reduced position size here in DBA selling at 24.64. I've also taken the gain on the AGU-T trade this morning at 47.14. I'll leave a partial position open in DBA.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#5
SilentOne
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 3,452 posts
Member
Posted 29 September 2009 - 10:00 AM
I'm out of my DBA position entirely this morning at 25.41. What has saved this ETF thus far is sugar which had a terrific rally in 2009. The grains have been in a bear trend for weeks and I assume that will continue until the larger cycle lows arrive next year.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
