45 replies to this topic

[Bullryder]

Capitulation at the very TOP.

[milbank]

Don, thanks for the detailed post and clear explanation of your thoughts. I too was caught leaning the wrong way based on my expectation for a Hurst 20wk low July 24th area and several technical factors relating to certain sectors including financials and consumers.

In looking to what failed you in your interpertation of the SS buy signal I have this observation, and it comes from what I believe I should have given more weight to in my technical analysis as well. You disregarded a clear SSBS based on your perceived lack of internals divergence associated with it, right?

I think that if you keep it simple, you had clearcut divergence. Just look at the NYSE. The big board. NYMO showed a clear divergence with an internal low in mid and again in late June with the price low following in early July with higher highs in NYMO. In the future, it might be better to just look to NYMO for your divergent condition. Now if you review the various MCO's on DP, you can see divergences in just about every other index including NDX, SPX, OEX, INDU, MID, and SML. Don't put too much emphasis on NAMO, it is forever at the mercy of a declining NAAD.

I know you like to look at hundreds of other internals for divergences, but my point is that perhaps that is what failed you in July---looking for a very broad range of internal divergence.

In the future, maybe better to keep it simple...
If NYMO is diverging, that is enough. Take the signal.

Thanks again for sharing your work.

Echo

Good post

I agree

Yes, a great post. There are a lot of great posts on this thread.
Fecal thingings happen. TA is an art not a science. We all know that. That we, especially you "heavyweights" of technical analysis, constructively support and suggest to each other what may have been missed in the analysis of one another in order to have better results next time, is what makes this board great and informative for you guys and gals and great and educational for us "lightweights" who look to and use your work for our trading.

Thanks.

Edited by milbank, 10 August 2009 - 08:54 AM.

[diogenes227]

Don, thanks for the detailed post and clear explanation of your thoughts. I too was caught leaning the wrong way based on my expectation for a Hurst 20wk low July 24th area and several technical factors relating to certain sectors including financials and consumers.

In looking to what failed you in your interpertation of the SS buy signal I have this observation, and it comes from what I believe I should have given more weight to in my technical analysis as well. You disregarded a clear SSBS based on your perceived lack of internals divergence associated with it, right?

I think that if you keep it simple, you had clearcut divergence. Just look at the NYSE. The big board. NYMO showed a clear divergence with an internal low in mid and again in late June with the price low following in early July with higher highs in NYMO. In the future, it might be better to just look to NYMO for your divergent condition. Now if you review the various MCO's on DP, you can see divergences in just about every other index including NDX, SPX, OEX, INDU, MID, and SML. Don't put too much emphasis on NAMO, it is forever at the mercy of a declining NAAD.

I know you like to look at hundreds of other internals for divergences, but my point is that perhaps that is what failed you in July---looking for a very broad range of internal divergence.

In the future, maybe better to keep it simple...
If NYMO is diverging, that is enough. Take the signal.

Thanks again for sharing your work.

Echo

I think this analysis is right on. Especially the part about keeping it simple. If I may chime on on this. I'd also like to note here (noted it at the time on my Swing Waves McClellan thread) that the NYSI by July 15 had been generally declining for 40 days off its first break of the March rally (see red rectangle below). Forty days is a significant correction in the NYSI even if the market does not go down (usually the fact it does not go down is even more bullish for prices when the correction concludes). Hope this helps further simplify things.

Thanks, IYB, once again for your tireless work and astute analysis.

SWING WAVES McCLELLAN

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p11613899261&a=163053782&are=6467.png

[thespookyone]

Have to agree with moneyfriend here-not a good long entry at this spot-regardless of your persuasion, and I think we see some hard whipsaw soon.

[goldswinger]

IYB, I got to ask you, extreme barometric pressure change in the Hawaiian Islands?

You are turning when this thing is just about to turn the other way. I have to admit there is a slim chance for a new high but it will turn right away. Just take a look at the Dollar chart or the $XEU:$XJY and the red reversal candles on that one.......or the reversals on the $CRB and $CCI..., etc.

GS.

nOW i KNOW IT IS THE HURRICANE....


gs.

[rkd80]

IYB, Excellent post and very thorough, hard to argue with considering some of the historical aspects that seem to match with other bull market impulse waves. However I am not quite convinced that we are in a bull market just yet, time will tell, but I am still in the bear camp although my positions are more neutral than anything. I cant quite see going long here considering the seasonality.