7 replies to this topic

[stanley]

SPX monthly outlook - Vivid September
Sep 5 2009, 11:52 AM


photo credit

Aug 23 2009, 10:39 AM
A critical battle may take place in the zone 1034-1065.
As speculated in 05/03's post, bull took out 947, so as 1014. when bull "steps into" 1053-1068, then 1122 is the next target. The 08/16’s Chart suggests the resistance zone 1034-1065 will reject Bull's first attempt but the rejection does not warrant the termination of wave B. The counter trend rally will come to an end if it dives below 901-893 or the resistance zone 1034-1065 rejects bull's second attempt (after a sizeable pullback).

08/21


08/16

synopsis:

(1) The counter trend rally consists of 3 waves.

- a. 667-956
- b? 956-869 [? - denotes uncertainty]
- c? 869-1158? (if c equals a)


(2) wave c? has to surmount the major Fibonacci cluster 1014-1054 to reach the target 1158

(3) so far, the wave c? has breached 1039 then retreated. it forms a local frame 869.32-1039.47; The gauge to signify further weakness is a 0.382 retracement at 974.74. From the following chart, the gauge is lower than 978.51 so the importance is obvious.
Now, the question is whether the index can smash 1026 and launch the second attempt on 1034-1065 without any meaningful pullback?


(4) If the hard astro aspects will drag the index down, the effect will be apparent in the next 4 weeks. especially due to the third opposition of the 5 Saturn-Uranus opposition alignments.

(1) 11/04/08
(2) 02/05/09
(3) 09/15/09(Bradley turn date)
(4) 04/26/10
(5) 07/26/10


(5) support zone 893-915, resistance zone 1034-1065.



Entering the High power zone
Aug 1 2009, 10:23 PM

-----------(See note)---------


December 19th, 2008 @ 4:28 am by Astro Transits
Astrological transits Stock market crashes - Thursday, December 18, 2008

Period 1: September-October 2008 (high strength!)
Period 2:
Period 3: around 14 August 2009 to mid September (another high strength!)
Period 4:
Period 5:
Period 6: around 19-26 June 2010 (brutal strength aspect!)
Period 7: mid December 2010 (high strength!)
Period 8: mid August 2011 (the final blow)

period 3 time window

Jul 23 2009, 09:56 PM
08/05
109 trading day cycle, 03/06/09-109-08/05, not a dominant one
08/14
465 trading days from 10/11/07 (Peak 1576) to 08/14/09
09/07
1260 trading days from 10/10/2002 Low to 10/11/2007 High
its 0.382 has 481 trading days, to be due on 09/07/09
09/30
109 trading day cycle, 04/24/09-106-09/24-09/30/09, may become the dominant one

(1) The North Node
schedules - Moon’s North node leaving Pisces in 2008 and enters Aquarius in entire 2009

1st Jan 2008 00 Pisces 21
1st July 2008 20 Aquarius 42
1st Jan 2009 10 Aquarius 58
1st July 2009 01 Aquarius 23
1st Jan 2010 21 Capricorn 38

The North Node (Dragon's Head) is the zodiacal point the Moon crosses the Ecliptic on its way upward [ascending] (to north); the South Node (Dragon's Tail) is the downward [descending] (to south) cross-point of the Ecliptic.

(2) Pluto will turn direct at 00Capricorn03 on September 12, 2009.
"Once again this is a momentous moment" Link to "A Theory of an Economy - Part Two"


Link to - Current & Upcoming Retrogrades and Stations 2009: Cafe Astrology .com



(3) Saturn opposing Uranus.

In 2008-2010, there are Saturn-Uranus opposition in exact alignments:

(1) 11/04/08
(2) 02/05/09
(3) 09/15/09
(4) 04/26/10
(5) 07/26/10

"The markets came very close to crashing on the first Saturn-Uranus opposition ten months ago. They dropped again noticeably on the second pass in mid-January. In three weeks time, Saturn will once again move to within five degrees of opposing Uranus and be closing in. I do not think it is possible for the markets to break the pattern and withstand the effects."
Link to source
"I still think all mayhem is going to break loose towards the end of August. There will likely be violent uprisings and attacks flaring up around the world. Weak structures of all forms, physical and institutional, are going to once again be tested and collapse. I still think the global markets will crash severely. My only reservation is that it might happen a week or so after August 14, but very likely begin by the time Mercury turns retrograde on September 7, 2009. Let's just watch with interest."

THE OPPOSITION FROM SATURN TO URANUS, 2008-2010,

01/11/09 retrograde
01/31/09 direct
05/06/09 retrograde
05/30/09 direct
09/06/09 retrograde
09/29/09 direct
12/26/09 retrograde
01/15/09 direct

Taklamakan Desert sand storm

Taklamakan desert: http://en.wikipedia....wiki/Taklamakan
Tarim Desert Highway http://en.wikipedia...._Desert_Highway

Note:
Astro events can hardly ties with a quantitative number credibly. While those hard aspects may drag down the index, in E-wave view, if index moves down in the next 8 weeks modestly, it is considered as a correction. In as such scenario, the wave structure since March low looks bullish.
I speculate there is a possibility we will see the Up wave bring the index to somewhere around 1122 to 1229. Thereafter, It would be the Primary wave C that bring the index down to a new low.

Jul 25 2009, 07:54 PM
Overall big picture
---- 11/10/07-primary A-1576.09-666.79
---- 03/06/09-primary B-0666.79-???.?? (in progress)
The primary wave B have 3 major waves: a,b,c .

May 10 2009, 10:07 AM

May 3 2009, 08:17 PM
The FIB pivots from the major frame [667:1576] are: 881, (947), 1014, (1068), 1122, a 0.382 retracement is 1014. from the secondary frame [1440:667], a 0.5 retracement is 1053
The wave structure can be realized (but not necessary the only way) as primary wave A [1576:667], and primary wave B [667:?](in progress). The goal is to see the primary B will either reach 1014 or 1122. The gauges are 947 and 1053-1068.

Apr 29 2009, 03:23 PM
881.38 = [0.236|666.79:1576.09] and 877= [0.618|1007:667]
The points between 877 [middle spring target] and 881 is small but by surmounting 881, the wave hierarchy changes. The rally wave since March 6th becomes a major wave. Therefore, a primary wave B (Up, counter-trend) has commenced. It is at the same level as the wave from Oct/07 to March/09 (Primary A, Down).

Apr 17 2009, 02:32 PM
SPX intraday high 875.63
The middle Spring target has been met. By hitting 875.63 demonstrates the March low 667 might be a well established middle term Trough.

Mar 20 2009, 12:13 PM

Last update 03/14
We got the counter trend rally early confirmation

Last update 03/08
The overall picture is to expect the counter trend rally in March/April. The softness in March (3/11-3/19) due to the 109 trading cycle is expectable; Soon We will find out that particular cycle's low will recur again or it has already behind us.
Judging from the low we have seen, the counter trend rally might just retrace up to 838.01 [0.618|943.85:666.79] or 877 [0.618|1007:667] in the Middle Spring. The early confirmation for such possibility is to see index climbing above 716.6 [0.236]

Root 01/23/2008 [3 more cycles prior to 01/23/2008]
11/21/08-106-04/24/09
04/24/09-106-09/24-09/30/09

Root 10/10/2008
10/10/08-106-03/11-03/19/09
03/11/09-106-08/12-08/21/09 (08/14)

[stanley]

[ Claude Monet ]

"A color that I had found and sketched on one of these canvases yesterday reappears in the air. I am quickly given this painting and strive to fix this vision as permanently as possible. But it usually vanishes as fast as it sprang up, making way for another color I had already painted days ago on another study instantly put in front of me... And that is the way it is all day long." "The motif's essential is the mirror of water whose aspect is constantly being modified by the changing sky reflected in it, and which imbues it with life and movement."

[stanley]

Aug 23 2009, 10:39 AM
The 08/16’s Chart suggests the resistance zone 1034-1065 will reject Bull's first attempt but the rejection does not warrant the termination of wave B. The counter trend rally will come to an end if it dives below 901-893 or the resistance zone 1034-1065 rejects bull's second attempt (after a sizeable pullback).

Sep 5 2009, 11:52 AM
Now, the question is whether the index can smash 1026 and launch the second attempt on 1034-1065 without any meaningful pullback?

So far (09/09), the movement is embraced in the following frame:
08/28 1039.47
08/17 978.51
A 0.786 retracement [1039.47:978.51] is 991.56, the intraday low on 09/02 is 991.97.

The size of the pullback from 1039.47 is “only” 47.5 points so I will say it is not a sizeable pullback.
Index takes out 1026 on 09/09 intraday and pricks into the lower side of the resistance zone 1034-1065, support is around 975.

[stanley]

Index breached critical point 1048, it is 5 points below the confirmation zone 1053-1068 (to see 1122)

(1) Middle term frame [refer to chart: http://indexcalls.co...89705_thumb.jpg ]

- a. 666.79-956.23
- b? 956.23-869.32[? - denotes uncertainty]
- c? 869-1158? (if c equals a)

c? has moved 0.618 of a, it breached 1048.19 [09/11 intraday high 1048.18 at this writing]

(2) local wave

869.32 (07/08)-1018 (08/07)
978.51(08/17)

0.5 @ 1052.85

(3) longer term frame:

0.5 out of frame 667:1440 is 1053.5

May 3 2009, 08:17 PM
The goal is to see the primary B will reach either 1014 or 1122. The gauges are 947 and 1053-1068.

[stanley]

At this writing, the SPX index breaches 1,068.29 on 09/16. So, there is good odd, as matter of time, the index reaches 1122 [+/-]. Whether the index will move to 1122 directly depends on the actions on 1070-1074. The critical support is around 969-975.

(1) Middle term frame

- a. 666.79-956.23
- b? 956.23-869.32[? - denotes uncertainty]
- c? 869-1158? (if c equals a)

0.707 of a put index at 1073.95, where 0.707 is the half power point, 0.707 * 0.707 = 0.5.

(2) local wave

869.32 (07/08)-1018 (08/07)
978.51(08/17)

0.618 @ 1070.39

[stanley]

From March’s low to 09/17 intrady's high 1,074.77, Bulls have hauled the index 407.98 points higher. They are deserved a nice credit.

The early sign for a reversal is to see index dive below 1000-1014. further confirmation is to see index dive below 950-975, better confirmation is to see index drop below 900-915.

Without some strength catalysts, it is hard to see a 16% correction in a short period. [ (1 - (900/1075))*100% ].

The following Chart indicates a few key support/resistance clusters. The longer time span the index floats around these confirmation levels, the higher the possibility to see index moves above 1100. As stated in 05/03’s post, once index poked into 1034-1065, the next target is 1122. Coincidently, the middle point between 1086 & 1158 is 1122.

May 10 2009, 10:07 AM


09/19

[stanley]

Aug 23 2009, 10:39 AM
The 08/16’s Chart suggests the resistance zone 1034-1065 will reject Bull's first attempt but the rejection does not warrant the termination of wave B. The counter trend rally will come to an end if it dives below 901-893 or the resistance zone 1034-1065 rejects bull's second attempt (after a sizeable pullback).

Sep 9 2009, 12:30 PM
The size of the pullback from 1039.47 is “only” 47.5 points so I will say it is not a sizeable pullback.

Sep 16 2009, 12:38 PM
Whether the index will move to 1122 directly depends on the actions on 1070-1074

Sep 20 2009, 11:35 PM
The early sign for a reversal is to see index dive below 1000-1014. Further confirmation is to see index dive below 950-975, better confirmation is to see index drop below 900-915.

I consider 1080 was an aberration when index attempted breaking the half power zone 1070-1074.
Without sizeable pullback, even though index made a seemingly failed attempt on the upper zone. The chance to greet 1122 still cannot be ruled.
This post concludes this thread, a new thread “The Hunt for Red October” will explore the status of the 109 trading day cycle [09/30-10/06]

[stanley]

Without sizeable pullback, even though index made a seemingly failed attempt on the upper zone. The chance to greet 1122 still cannot be ruled out.

[correction]