20 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

hi denmo, If natural gas has an 11 week cycle low due here, it is worth the trade. This is no different than the 11 week cycle on crude (seems offset thought from NG). I had that Sept. crude low to the day and didn't stick with it. So if natural gas is putting in an 11 week low, I have to go with it irrespective of what other markets are doing. That was my mistake with the late Sept. low in crude. I was worried about the general market when I should have been focusing on the USO trade. And what happens? Crude runs from 68 to 82. cheers, john

[mss]

Me thinks you are SO RIGHT, have made that mistake several times over 50 years of trading. Every once in awhile I lose focus on THE THING that is being traded and look at overall market. NOT A GOOD THING if that look makes me forget why I am trading something else. AAPL was/is a perfect example of that. I did it both ways but wound up going back long etc. etc. Finally learned AAPL has a path/pattern all by it self-and follow that. Best to you, mss btw: I got some extra T shirts to prove it if you want one

[vitaminm]

UNG....daily Support@8.5-9.0 Inntraday Resist@9.50-9.75

[vitaminm]

UNG....now....Resist@11-12.............next..12-13

[vitaminm]

UNG.....intraday buy.....S@8.30.........R/T@9.........10

[vitaminm]

http://finance.yahoo...-...set=&ccode=

[goldswinger]

Just went long Today the Canadian Nat Gas ETF HNU @ 7.80. We should bounce from around here. I am not sure if we are completing a set of Triple Threes on UNG from the 10.96 high in early January and we are now about to start a C wave up or we have just about completed a wave 3 down and we are about to embark on an ABC up, but either way we should be going up from here. What is your view if you care to share from an eWave perspective? Thanks, GS.

[vitaminm]

gs,

I am not an e-wave expert.but some how UNG doesn't follow XNG since first quarter of 09



http://finance.yahoo...UNG&a...=&a=&c=

http://beta.barchart...J...e=&txtDate=

http://www.schaeffer...a...me&ID=96340


$natgas......projects 4.54

[goldswinger]

Vitaminm, I realize UNG does not track Natural Gas in the charts but it does move directionally in a similar way (different magnitudes) and that's how you end up with those dissimilar charts. However if you look at the Nat Gas moves since early January, it seems to be doing a corrective move which in Elliot wave terms could be a triple three ABC down, ABC up and then ABC down and it would appear that we are ending this move completing the C part. We should move back up to at least 12 maybe 13 on UNG by the summer, only to drop again to the lows in the Winter of 2010. There is an alternative possibility which would be that we are doing a huge A wave down and we are now just completing 3 down with an ABC up to come targeting UNG @9.50 and then a plunge to marginal new lows. This would be followed by a B up and then a C down into the end of 2010, setting up an explosive move in 2011......this would correspond to the current bearish conditions in the natural Gas market (marking time trading between $4.5 and $6 on Nat Gas and $7.50 and $13 on UNG.). We'll see..... but we should move up in the next couple of weeks at least from about these levels.... GS.

[goldswinger]

Vitaminm, by the way XNG does not track the commodity but the companies that produce the commodity and these companies track the SPX and the OIL index, so hence the discrepancy..... $NATGAS has a great correlation to UNG and that's what I alluded to when I mentioned Natural Gas in my previous response. GS.