4 replies to this topic

[athlonmank8]

Hello, I'm new to Hurst but have been using my own (home-brew) cycle analysis for sometime now that I came up with. Unfortunately it's difficult to use for longer term cycles so I figured 2 is better than one so we'll see how this goes. This is my Hurst cycle chart for SLM. Looks to be following a 25-26 week cycle (top arc). Middle is 12.5-13 week. Does this look correct? I would like to add this to my future analysis, however it's very time consuming determining cycle length etc. With that said I think this will paint a much more manageable picture though for my trading. The one problem with Hurst is that you can't really tell the exact cycle length from the breakout (for the "up leg"). Well it's one month min (then pullback...at this time we'll know very accurately what the next leg will be), 3 months max. OR if you're lazy, 1/2 @ 1 month 1/2 @ 3 months. Use 2-3 TARGETS for sales (granted a MAJOR price move) and trail stops up as needed.

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[SilentOne]

hi athlonmank8, My initial thoughts on this stock per Hurst: 1. The 20 week lows are lengthy into the March 2009 low and not easily identified. Given the very bearish market of the last 2 years, you'd have to look back several cycle periods to get a fix on the true duration of the 20 week Hurst cycle for SLM. 2. The last known 80 week low in March 2009 for the general market likely marked an 80 week low for SLM. Now count forward to see if an identifiable 20 week low arrived this summer. It may have arrived with the $SPX 20 week low mid-july. 3. Notice that the last 20 week low for SLM may have already been breached in the larger 40 week cycle period. That is bearish and a sign of weakness for the stock. The 20 week low looks to have arrived for SLM and may have now failed. I'd wait to see now if a 10 week low materializes. 4. Once a 10 week low is identified, the next time frame to watch is when we can expect a 40 week low to arrive this fall. I don't have more time right now to add anything more. Make sure you understand how various cycles and their possible status will affect cyclic price action (ie. per J.M. Hurst's course). cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 13 September 2009 - 09:28 PM.

[athlonmank8]

hi athlonmank8,

My initial thoughts on this stock per Hurst:

1. The 20 week lows are lengthy into the March 2009 low and not easily identified. Given the very bearish market of the last 2 years, you'd have to look back several cycle periods to get a fix on the true duration of the 20 week Hurst cycle for SLM.

2. The last known 80 week low in March 2009 for the general market likely marked an 80 week low for SLM. Now count forward to see if an identifiable 20 week low arrived this summer. It may have arrived with the $SPX 20 week low mid-july.

3. Notice that the last 20 week low for SLM may have already been breached in the larger 40 week cycle period. That is bearish and a sign of weakness for the stock. The 20 week low looks to have arrived for SLM and may have now failed. I'd wait to see now if a 10 week low materializes.

4. Once a 10 week low is identified, the next time frame to watch is when we can expect a 40 week low to arrive this fall.

I don't have more time right now to add anything more. Make sure you understand how various cycles and their possible status will affect cyclic price action (ie. per J.M. Hurst's course).

cheers,

john

Thanks for the help. I see I'm definitely doing this incorrectly.

1. Need to do that

2. I didn't notice a 20 wk low in July, but if there was one it was definitely violated.

3. I'm not sure if I understand where the 40 wk is being drawn. I actually am not sure if I understand this at all lol. (i'm still a beginner)

4. Sound good. I'll be watching for the new 5/10 week lows to arrive to see if this chart has any validity whatsoever.

The question is how do you usually determine if it's a 40 week cycle or a 56 week cycle? That's typically through trial and error unless I missed something.

I'm working on the FLD's now, and I realize the book is only going to take me so far. I need the course if I want to make any worthwhile advances in this it seems.

Unfortunately this analysis is time consuming it's difficult to apply to a large basket of stocks. I do some intra-day trading and that's a mess of other issues.

With that said i'm leaving it to a pro lol. I respect your work a lot. Thanks again for the help.

[diogenes227]

Interesting stuff, this Hurst work, and Silent One is pretty much a master at it, but I have to say it is complicated. I can't imagine doing it on individual stocks mainly because there are too many variables and I suspect market forces will often intervene. This is just my unsolicited opinion but I'd suggest you concentrate on the market timing (Hurst or otherwise) and tie your stock trading to the market's move. The vast majority of stocks move with the mass psychology of the market regardless of their individual stories. In other words, buy when the market tells you and sell when the stock tells you (i.e., use stops in case your selected stock doesn't go with the market). Best to you.

[athlonmank8]

Update. Broke to new highs today right on schedule. Hurst stuff works pretty good I guess. 7 week.

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