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Q for E-Wavers


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 19 April 2004 - 09:02 AM

I use E-wave, but I'm not expert and I limit it to basics (for my own reasons). I am looking at the S&P chart, and I keep seeing something that I remember reading about. I'm wondering if I'm reading it right. So, let me ask you guys this: Is it possible that the March ABC correction was, in fact a three wave move inside a three wave move? That is, that whole decline was A, and we just completed B, and now we have a two leg decline to complete C? I think it might be two a-b-c corrections split by a corrective rally making a larget ABC correction, but I'm not sure if this comforms to any of the rules. If my read is correct, then it would, of course, imply a nasty decline ahead, and then a dandy wave 5 rally after that. Thoughts? Mark (who don't need this to be right, as sentiment and trend will tell the tale, but it's an interesting approach)

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#2 btreehouse

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Posted 19 April 2004 - 09:20 AM

I would tell you but then I'd have to kill you or charge you money to cover the cost of my future Traders-talk subscription. If someone doesn't answer, I might try later. Regards,

#3 Rogerdodger

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Posted 19 April 2004 - 09:36 AM

Did you see this on EW?
ELLIOT WAVE CHART

#4 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 19 April 2004 - 09:38 AM

No, but I suspect that I'm on the right track, no? M

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#5 DrWu

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Posted 19 April 2004 - 09:39 AM

http://www.geocities...les.htm#dzzrule

Nice reference/guide to wave counting.

#6 Rogerdodger

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Posted 19 April 2004 - 09:53 AM

Zoran Gayer's Elliot Wave Chart mentioned above shows a decline to the end of April to 9900 Dow and 1075 SPX. Then a rally to this price area into summer. Then a larger decline.

#7 slick

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Posted 19 April 2004 - 09:59 AM

I would tell you but then I'd have to kill you or charge you money to cover the cost of my future Traders-talk subscription.

If someone doesn't answer, I might try later.

Regards,

agreed: "those who know don't tell, those who tell don't know"

hi zoran :D

#8 NAV

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Posted 19 April 2004 - 10:38 AM

There are two possibilities: 1) The March decline was a wave A. We completed wave B and we have nasty wave c (5 wave decline) ahead. 2) The March decline was a A-B-C correction. The subsequent retracement was a wave X and we have another A-B-C correction ahead. I favour 2. Per this count we should have a choppy wave A down followed by a swift and deep wave C.

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#9 blustar

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Posted 19 April 2004 - 10:46 AM

I have the decline into March as being Wave A and we are now in Wave B into April 26th, then comes Wave C. blu

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#10 PorkLoin

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Posted 20 April 2004 - 09:46 PM

I use E-wave, but I'm not expert and I limit it to basics (for my own reasons).

I am looking at the S&P chart, and I keep seeing something that I remember reading about.

I'm wondering if I'm reading it right. So, let me ask you guys this:

Is it possible that the March ABC correction was, in fact a three wave move inside a three wave move? That is, that whole decline was A, and we just completed B, and now we have a two leg decline to complete C?

I think it might be two a-b-c corrections split by a corrective rally making a larget ABC correction, but I'm not sure if this comforms to any of the rules.

If my read is correct, then it would, of course, imply a nasty decline ahead, and then a dandy wave 5 rally after that.

Thoughts?

Mark
(who don't need this to be right, as sentiment and trend will tell the tale, but it's an interesting approach)

Hi Mark,

If the S&P did decline in three waves in March, it indeed could be part of a double zig-zag, which is what you described, and quite a common deal. Afterwards, we could rally again, OR the whole 3-3-3 count could be the first part of a more complex structure, just as you posit that the March decline was part of a larger and still unfolding wave.

Nav is dead on target with his two possibilities, per the three-wave count for the March decline. I would mention that the S&P can be counted as declining in five waves there, like the OEX and the DJIA, though not as pretty. Maybe all the indices will get synchronized but we have a ways to go -- the RUT looks like it's putting in an initial five waves down right now.

If we're only correcting the uptrend from March 2003 or Oct. 2002 here, then we'll get that five-wave rally you mention, and that would leave five larger waves up from the Oct. 2002 low, and that would be a huge deal versus what may be a completed counter-trend three-wave rally from 2002.

In another thread The Right Look mentioned a possible triangle, and that would surprise both rabid bulls and bears alike here, and the market likes to do that. The huge Down/Up volume we had a week or two ago makes me think there is indeed enough decline left in store to eliminate the triangle, but no way to be sure now.

I think you're right on the nasty decline, regardless of whether this is C down, or 3 down. Both are third waves and they often are surprising with their persistence of trend. A good example was the move up from March 2003. I am more short than any time since May 2002.

Best,

Doug