snowflakes spinning in the wind
December is the twelfth and last month of the year in the Gregorian Calendar
Last month - Rhapsody of November
Seasonal Greetings
a remote village immersed in the autumn sunlight
photo link: http://farm4.static....775a65c66_o.jpg
the autumn leaves of gold
photo link: http://farm4.static....c23656ef3_o.jpg
The same village covers with seasonal clothes while snowflakes spinning in the wind
photo link: http://farm4.static....d8f84d3b3_o.jpg
December outlook in essence
This month is a transitional period. Index may jog in between the two important clusters 1083-1132 and 1034-1066. When index penetrates the inter pivots 1082 and 1074, it may find support around 1046-1048, and therefore, establishes a new round of assault. Critical support is 1000-1014 with pivot 1019. Resistance is 1116/1117 with pivot 1007-1009.
In retrospective mode:
S&P 500 index marked a monthly low 1029.38 on 11/02, and plotted a monthly high 1113.69 on 11/16. In overall, the movement did not shift out of November outlook’s scope. The pivot resistance 11107-1109 remains asserted, and the unrealized apex 1132 (1158) is still hanging around.
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November outlook
Wait for downside reversal confirmation, an early gauge is to see index dive below 1000-1014; Since index breached 1101 on 10/21, the assault on upper limit 1132, 1158 still can’t be ruled out. Upper side breakout gauge is 1109.
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Fibonacci retracements
( a ) A deep retracement in the local frame [1113.69:1029.83] maps the index to 1048 (0.786) and 1046 (0.809)
( b ) Nov 14 - wave & Fibonacci
666.79-->930.17-->869.32-->1132.70 [1.0]
666.79-->956.23-->869.32-->1158.53 [1.0]
From the above two sets of waves, a few FIB clusters can be visualized, [1000-1014],[1034-1066] [1083-1132], 1122 is the 0.5 retracement in between 667 & 1576.
chart: http://traders-talk....-1258255169.jpg
( c ) Oct 31 - key constructions
The middle point between 1132 and 1000 is 1066. The middle point between 1066 and 1000 is 1033.
chart - http://traders-talk....-1257024947.jpg
Ever since the index lifted off the base 1000 on 09/04, the downward forces were incapable of breaking the (early) trend reversal confirmation zone 1000-1014.
From the FIB map shown below, the next down leg may encounter tough support zone in the range from 948 to 962
Classical full stochastic indicators
The 109 trading day cycle is equivalent to a 21 trading week cycle. constructs the full stochastic chart with two sets of parameters [21,8,13], [42,16,26]. The chart gives an impression that the current rally has some more leg to go, refer to the next sub title: “Long PI cycle & Fibonacci Time ratio”
charting tool courtesy: StockCharts.com
Long PI multiples, cycles, & Fibonacci Time ratio
From the chart shown below, the 109 trading day cycle recurred undoubtedly. The cycle rooted on 07/15/08 was due on 10/29. Just two trading days later, a secondary low was observed on 11/02.
The long cycle (465 trading day) rooted 01/22/08 was due on 11/23. Technically speaking, index still jogs within the time window (up to 12/04), the effect seems either immaterial or could be a secondary event.
Another suspension saga is the Fibonacci Time Zone ratio 0.5 in this chart , it was due on 11/13. Just in the next trading day, on 11/16, index marked the highest number 1113.69, Is it done yet? I can't tell without further confirmation.
( a ) Fibonacci Time Zone ratio 0.618 due 01/18/10
From 10/11/07 (1576.09) to 03/06/09 (666.79), there were 352 trading days.
Use ratio 0.618, 352 * 0.618 = 218 trading days, it is due on January 18, 2010. This particular Time Zone ratio could give a good hint where is the broad direction heads to.
( b ) Two important Bradley turn dates: 03/01/10, and 08/101/10
Due to the leading/lagging phenomenon, those “secondary” Bradley turn dates before/after the important turn date may not be ignored. An good example occurred in the late spring, 01/20-21, 02/8-9 were two secondary turn dates. It was till March 06 index marked a middle term low 666.79.
( c ) Long PI multiples (re-edit)
Monumental time marks
* Black Monday, October 19, 1987
* Millennium Internet peak (SPX), March 24, 2000
* First 4 year cycle low since millennium, October 10, 2002
* The apex of Great Reflation, October 11, 2007
* The first Trough since the Great Reflation, March 6, 2009
By converting the trading days into PI based multiples, a set of “meaningful” numbers pops off
Oct 30 2009, 06:54 AM
There were 1259 trading days (400 * PI) from 4 year cycle low date (10/10/2002) to the Apex of Great Reflation date (10/11/2007).
1259 * 1.5 = 600 * PI
1259 * 0.5 = 200 * PI = 629/630
629 trading days (200 * PI) from the Apex of Great Reflation date (10/11/07) maps to April 13, 2010 ( I may miss a few days due to holidays).
In year 2000, there were two peaks:
-- the Apex was observed on 03/24/2000, the Millennium Internet peak
-- the reaction peak was observed on 09/01/2000.
There are 112 trading days in between these peaks
From the reaction high, index headed to the 4 year cycle low on October 10, 2002.
112 is in the range of the 109 trading day cycle. So, adds 109 trading days to April 13, 2010, it maps to September 17, 2010 [+/-]
Sub paragraph summary - Whether March 1/2010 (The first important Bradley turn date) is an Apex or Trough can be speculated by referencing the index value on January 18, 2010 (Fibonacci Time Zone ratio 0.618) and April 13, 2010 (200 * PI from the Apex of Great Reflation date (10/11/07). if Zone 948 – 962 is breached in between 01/18/10 and 04/13/10, there is good odd to say the rally since 03/06/09 is over. However, it does not imply a new low will be observed shortly after. Sometimes the consolidation process leads more confusions.
Astro
More details can be found in The Grand Cross and An Alignment for Our Times- 10/24/09
Repetition
Mark Twain 1835-1910
“By law of periodical REPETITION, everything which has happened once must happen again and again -- and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's and each obeying its own law.” link
The following 2 sensational sound tracks composed by Tan Dun (music artist) shows the Repetition rhythms .
Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon Soundtrack (2000)
Tan Dun & Yo-Yo Ma
click: http://www.youtube.c...feature=related
For The World - Hero Soundtrack (2002)
Itzhak Perlman, Tan Dun
click:
