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#11 Mr Dev

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Posted 21 April 2004 - 10:36 PM

this is what happens when I'm trying to do to many things at once...

I don't back test so I would known,

Should of said I wouldn't know!

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Mr Dev

......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!

#12 swingtrader13

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Posted 21 April 2004 - 10:50 PM

Dev, I'll check out the backtest on weekly and monthly MACD tomorrow as it's time for bed now, but I'll keep you posted on what I find out. ST13

#13 Echo

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Posted 21 April 2004 - 10:56 PM

When building systems to program trading, it helps to pay attention to the likelihood of success simply based on the instrument one is planning on trading. The higher the volatility of an instrument, the harder it is to profit from timing schemes. This can be measured by the ratio of the daily/monthly standard deviation. So for example, trying to time the ndx or nasdaq puts you behind the eight-ball as the daily SD is quite high compared to the monthly SD. Lots of ups and down and jiggles. This translates into lots of drawdowns. On the other hand, Junk Bonds have a much lower ratio and can be much more easily timed with several indicators, but the returns are much less exciting and to those who like action, especially 2x beta, it can be like watching the grass grow or paint dry. Intermediate SD ratios can be found in indexes such as RUT or SP600. These can be reasonably timed with acceptable drawdowns for most. ECHO

#14 Mr Dev

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Posted 21 April 2004 - 11:15 PM

Echo, I agree and also disagree i've had much success trading the swings in the NDX, could I have been more profitable long term, well maybe, but could i stomach the swings ie drawdowns, I seriously doubt it. Wait let me say No Way. Most of my trading mistakes are my own fault in trusting/not trusting what the technicals are saying. Which could also be part of the problem for most st traders in general. I haven't built a system for trading but trade the simple MAs that seem to work well. It can't be that simple.....or can it? best MrDev

.. .. ..
Mr Dev

......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!

#15 Echo

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Posted 21 April 2004 - 11:49 PM

Mr. Dev, I should have stated that my statements were directed towards building mechanical systems for intermediate term trading, say 4-10 signals a year. For NDX, given the higher volatility, short term trading would be in order to have a better chance at succeeding with smaller drawdowns. Don't you day-trade watching 5-10 min charts for divergences and chart patterns? Echo

#16 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 22 April 2004 - 05:07 AM

great thread, guys.

Mark S Young
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#17 flyers&divers

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Posted 22 April 2004 - 08:17 AM

Echo:

When building systems to program trading, it helps to pay attention to the likelihood of success simply based on the instrument one is planning on trading. The higher the volatility of an instrument, the harder it is to profit from timing schemes. This can be measured by the ratio of the daily/monthly standard deviation.


I am using oscillators in timing along with volatility bands and I found that the higher the volatility (actually velocity) the higher the chance to catch the bottom/top of the move and once the swing starts there is a higher chance of a good move.

I am fishing for stocks on the high Alpa rating lists such as on Barchart.com under Sectors heading. My favorites are that cruise on the outside of the BB. Thais is similar to the tight channel situation described by Gary Smith.
"Successful trading is more about Sun Tzu then Elliott." F&D

#18 Echo

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Posted 22 April 2004 - 08:35 AM

F & D, Interesting. What is the average length of your buy to sell time using this particular technique in higher velocity stocks. Also, are you speaking about beta or alpha or both? Echo

#19 flyers&divers

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Posted 22 April 2004 - 09:23 AM

Time duration one swing which is 2-5 days. This happens to coincide be my temperament. After the first swing it has to be reevaluated because the initial favorable conditions may no longer be present. Beta by itself means nothing. A high beta stock could have wide swings which are useless to me without some directional force(Alpha) behind it.
"Successful trading is more about Sun Tzu then Elliott." F&D

#20 sagitarius_d

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Posted 22 April 2004 - 11:01 AM

I tested one system on the NAsdaq 100 stocks and OEX 100 stocks..for 5 years of data.. IF i find a place to upload the system results i fill post them here.. Ps And the test over the OEX sucked...But the nasdaq gave a pretty nice equity curve, with very little drawdowns..I feel that i have an overoptimized systems though..:((