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200 week moving Average


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#1 Gold3600

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Posted 07 March 2010 - 11:41 AM

March to March with just 80 S&P points to go! I think its safe to say were going to get there soon!


http://www.traders-t...howtopic=110296


Post from Russ Aug 23 2009

He ( Michael Belkin) claims the number 200 for the monthly and weekly MA’s has worked to define levels of support and resistance in every major bubble and crash he has studied over the last 100 years. A bear-market bounce in a stock index or commodity from its 200-month average to its 200-week average, he says, is relentless, takes about a year and ends with low volatility -- all characteristic of the recent U.S. rally. I want to verify this conclusion in my 200-year chart because, if true, many new investment tools will become available for the future.

His success with these long term moving averages suggest I should follow suit with a new study which will be published here over the next few months. I already have the Dow Industrial or equivalent data back for two centuries, so his 200 months moving average conclusions aren’t a problem. The 200 week Moving Average can be approximated in terms of months so I can research his concept and perhaps find another set of tools to refine this big picture.

The main area of interest is to check his contention that a post bubble decline will bottom at a 200 month MA, then peak at a higher 200 week Moving Average. Keep in mind we are not talking about a commonly watched 200-Day moving average. These are very long term trend criteria that could prove interesting because no one is watching them. The critical conclusion however will be whether the historical record of post bubble recovery peaks has in fact peaked at the 200 week MA. If so we are nearing a potentially important peak.

#2 zman

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Posted 07 March 2010 - 11:53 AM

March to March with just 80 S&P points to go! I think its safe to say were going to get there soon!


http://www.traders-t...howtopic=110296


Post from Russ Aug 23 2009

He ( Michael Belkin) claims the number 200 for the monthly and weekly MA’s has worked to define levels of support and resistance in every major bubble and crash he has studied over the last 100 years. A bear-market bounce in a stock index or commodity from its 200-month average to its 200-week average, he says, is relentless, takes about a year and ends with low volatility -- all characteristic of the recent U.S. rally. I want to verify this conclusion in my 200-year chart because, if true, many new investment tools will become available for the future.

His success with these long term moving averages suggest I should follow suit with a new study which will be published here over the next few months. I already have the Dow Industrial or equivalent data back for two centuries, so his 200 months moving average conclusions aren’t a problem. The 200 week Moving Average can be approximated in terms of months so I can research his concept and perhaps find another set of tools to refine this big picture.

The main area of interest is to check his contention that a post bubble decline will bottom at a 200 month MA, then peak at a higher 200 week Moving Average. Keep in mind we are not talking about a commonly watched 200-Day moving average. These are very long term trend criteria that could prove interesting because no one is watching them. The critical conclusion however will be whether the historical record of post bubble recovery peaks has in fact peaked at the 200 week MA. If so we are nearing a potentially important peak.


very interesting indeed....thanks for posting and look forward to the new study...cheers
Education is the best defense against the media.

#3 Bernie

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Posted 07 March 2010 - 03:52 PM

Probably because it coincides with the 18.6 / 20 year cycle. When you run the numbers put in a williams%r (20) with a 233 (fib#) ema on a monthly chart. Very telling. Bernie