The VRTrader.com VR Silver Newsletter - Monday 4/19/2010"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright ©2010, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. LEIBOVIT FILES | by Mark Leibovit Leibovit Files
Monday, April 19, 2010
It's Time To Flip To A 'Sell' Signal!
It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds.
Samuel Adams
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UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES/MARKET EVENTS
APRIL 19 - 23, 2010:
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MONDAY, APRIL 19, 2010:
PRE-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
Citigroup, Eli Lilly, Halliburton, Hasbro, M&T Bank
Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
POST-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
Crown Hldgs, IBM, Zions Bancorp
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TUESDAY, APRIL 20, 2010:
'Turnaround Tuesday'
PRE-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
Bank of NY, Coca-Cola, Delta Air Lines, Goldman Sachs, Harley-Davidson, Johnson & Johnson, TD Ameritrade, US Bancorp
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
POST-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
Altera, Apple, Gilead Sciences, Yahoo!
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WEDNESDAY, APRIL 21, 2010:
PRE-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
Abbott Labs, Altria, AT&T, Boeing, EMC, Genzyme, Lockheed Martin, McDonald's, Morgan Stanley, United Tech, Wells Fargo
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
POST-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
Amgen, E*TRADE, eBay, Netflix, Qualcomm, Starbucks
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THURSDAY, APRIL 22, 2010:
PRE-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
Alaska Air, American Greetings, AutoNation, BB&T Corp, Black & Decker, Blackstone, Continental Air, Ford Motor, Freeport-McMoRan, Hershey Foods, Jetblue Airways, Kimberly-Clark, Marriott, Nokia, Nucor, PepsiCo, Raytheon, Royal Caribbean, Southwest Air, Union Pacific, Verizon
Producer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
2-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET
5-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Announcement
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
POST-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
Amazon.com, American Express, Capital One, Microsoft, RadioShack
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FRIDAY, APRIL 23, 2010:
PRE-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
Honeywell, Schlumberger, Travelers, Xerox
Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
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STOCKS - ACTION ALERT -
In view of the market's extended technical position, the fact the Dow Industrials managed this past weeked to trade decisively over 11,000, and heavy broad-based Negative Volume Reversals ™ on Friday, I have flipped to a TIMER DIGEST 'Sell' signal! As always, I will trade accordingly and, as always, if need be, reserve the right to change my mind. Remember, Sell May and Go Away!
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Why is the U.S. Government going against its partner in crime, namely Goldman Sachs? It may be a result of simply trying to save face when it has become quite obvious to many that the government is essentially run and influenced by nothing less than a group of 'gangsters'. Glenn Beck clearly point out the strong infiltration of former Goldman Sachs into the U.S. Government (and other world governments) last year in the following video:
http://www.popmodal....an-Sachs-Theory
or
http://tinyurl.com/y26d53y
Last July's Matt Taibbi's expose in Rolling Stone magazine was the most scathing (and long overdue) criticism's to date.
http://www.scribd.co...s-and-the-crash
or
http://tinyurl.com/nc4wup
Friday's bombshell that the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) leveled a securities fraud charge against Goldman Sachs, alleging that the investment bank knowingly misled investors over the sale of risky sub-prime mortgage derivatives, known as CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations) triggered a mini market crash. The allegation implied that Goldman Sachs hired a hedge fund manager to put together these CDO's, consisting of securities it knew would fail, And then the very hedge fund who designed the derivatives shorted it - those very securities that it sold to the public via Goldman - raking in over a $2B in profits with corresponding losses to the retail investors they solicited to buy them.
Now, Wall Street itself is being attacked, though deservedly so, and traders, especially those on Wall Street, have become nervous. Someone is going to be taken out to the woodshed. But, my sense is that this a show staged to win lost votes for Obama and his socialist (neo-Marxist) cohorts and nothing more. Thinking that Goldman Sachs is going to be brought down is akin, in my opinion, in abolishing the Federal Reserve. Both are deserved, but neither will happen, unless we see a true revolution in this country - an event I hope never comes to fruition for all the obvious reasons.
Broad-based Negative Volume Reversals ™ accompanied Friday's 'bad news' regarding Goldman Sachs. We were due for a correction and this news event triggered the first phase of it in my opinion.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index sank 19.54 or 1.61 percent to 1,192.13 after falling 2.1 percent, the most intraday since Feb. 4. The Dow Industrials closed off 125.91 to 11,018.66 trading as low as 10,973.92 intra-day. The NASDAQ declined 34.43 or 1.37 percent to 2481.26.
SEC charges against Goldman Sachs and growing losses in home loans at Bank of America pulled down the Financial sector (XLF -3.65%) whose losses were more than twice the next worst performing sector.
Though Financials bore the brunt of the selling, no area was safe on Friday with all market sectors down. Commodity stocks fell (XLB -1.72% and XLE -1.69%) as metals fell sharply. Economically sensitive stocks also got hit (XLI -1.62%, XLK -1.33%, and XLY -1.32%) after disappointing earnings from GE and AMD and economic fears sparked by the continuing debt crisis in Greece.
The options index known as Wall Street's fear gauge surged on Friday after the government charged Goldman Sachs Group with civil fraud. The Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index gained 18% to 18.90 by the exchange's close, the biggest increase since late February.
Friday's decline was the largest since the bull-market rally began in February. Traders were looking for a reason to take profits, but with the market slowly but surely moving higher, everybody was afraid to miss out on the rally. The Goldman Sachs news has provided them with an excuse that even the Greek debt crisis did not because that was in a different continent and only had a tertiary effect on the US.
This week, we get the bulk of the earnings reports for the quarter. The market will watching quite closely. So far, earnings have come in mixed. But with the S&P up 14.1 percent off the February low, even after Friday's drop, traders want "good" earnings, not just "mixed" results.
On the other hand, there are no major speeches by Fed or Treasury officials. The economic calendar is light, though we get the weekly jobless claims report as usual on Thursday and a couple of home sales reports on Thursday and Friday.
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Here is an interesting tidbit sent to me by subscriber J.H. from Ohio:
On April 16, 1930, the DJIA put in a recovery high, up from the lows of 1929, from there the DJIA dropped 89% to the lows of 1933.
On April 16, 2010, the DJIA put in a recovery high, up from the lows of 2009. Will the DJIA drop 89% from here?
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DOW TRANSPORTS - ACTION ALERT -
Volume has not turned negative, as yet, in the Dow Transports, but the near parabolic rise recently puts the index in a weakened technical position.
Transportation stocks underperformed on Friday with the Dow Jones Transportation Average falling 79.18 or 1.68% to 4645.75 after the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation said airlines (^XAL -2.80%) may lose $1 billion in revenue because a cloud of volcanic ash threatens to keep dozens of airports in the U.K. and northern Europe shut for three more days. Some six million passengers will be affected if the shutdown of European airports continues, the consultant said. Delta Air Lines Inc., British Airways Plc and Qantas Airways Ltd. are among the dozens of airlines that have scrapped services after Iceland's 5,500-foot Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted and winds carried dust across a swath of northern Europe.
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GOLD and METALS - ACTION ALERT -
Gold fell the most in two months as the SEC's auction spurred investors to seek a haven in the dollar and eroding the precious metal's appeal as an alternative asset. Spot gold dropped 22.10 to 1136.70 and traded as low as 1129.30 right into support. Silver closed at 17.72 down .68 and saw 17.59. Platinum settled down 28.00 at 1691 while seeing 1645 intra-day. Palladium closed at 530 down 13.00 and traded down to 521. Copper settled down 0.0860 at 3.5145.
Why did the Goldman Sachs news hit precious metals, and oil too, so hard? Goldman structured these packages for hedge fund Paulson & Co. Paulson has been a big purchaser of metals (it is the largest holder of the SPDR Gold Trust) and this indirect attack on it may hurt his ability to trade and could scare away some of it investors which would force the hedge fund to sell. Additionally, Goldman runs a number of commodity funds based on the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, which investors may exit if they no longer trust Goldman.
Gold will need to truly prove itself on the long side at this time. A breakout above 1170 would be the likely catalyst for a push to new highs. Otherwise we may have seen an intermediate peak in Gold.
Here is the link to the VR Gold Letter:
www.vrgoldletter.com
If you are a Platinum or Silver subscriber, special discount rates are offered ($50 and $70, respectively, versus $125.00 per month). Please contact my office for details: mark.vrtrader@gmail.com or 928-282-1275.
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BONDS - ACTION ALERT -
Treasuries got a boost as traders sold stocks and commodities after the Goldman news, leaving no place to invest besides bonds. I have written and spoken about this many times. All the talk of higher interest is fine, but once stocks begin to seriously correct, bonds are the logical alternative and bond shorts will be forced to run for the hills. The long bond future jumped 27/32 to 116 28/32, its highest level in over three weeks.
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CRUDE OIL - ACTION ALERT -
Oil got hit on Friday by the economic implications of Greece's problems, decreased demand for oil due to the travel disruptions in Europe, and after Goldman Sachs was charged with civil fraud. Crude oil fell 2.08 to 84.67. A near-term top may have been seen in Crude Oil when it recently traded at 87.00. The burden of proof is clearly on the bulls at this time. An oulier event such as a conflict with Iran can change the chess board very quickly and Crude (above 87.00) could easily trade into the 90s which I've previouslly written about.
Washington-based trade group The American Petroleum Institute said Thursday U.S. gasoline production in March was the highest ever level on record. At 9.3 million barrels per day, it was 7.5% above March 2009. Domestic crude production, at 5.5 million barrels a day, remained at a five-year high, the API said in releasing its monthly statistics. Crude imports fell in March compared to last year, the API said.
Natural gas, which is largely immune to the Greek and Icelandic volcano concerns, gained 0.061 to 4.046.
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US DOLLAR - ACTION ALERT -
The US Dollar Index moved a little bit higher after the Goldman news as traders seek safety. The Dollar is of course benefiting from the financial trouble in Greece and disrupted travel in Europe. The US Dollar Index rose 0.342 to 80.824. Overall, it appears the Dollar could trade higher in coming months but seasonally we're due for a correction at this time. So far, volume has turned negative, so I'm giving the down Dollar scenario the benefit of the doubt for now. Above recent highs, I am wrong in this analysis.
Greece is making preparations to tap a joint European-International Monetary Fund aid plan should it be needed, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said Friday, a day after the government requested talks with European Union, European Central Bank and IMF officials. Papandreou told parliament that a decision to activate the program, which would provide up to 45 billion euros ($61.1 billion) would depend on the "country's interests." "We are taking all the preparatory actions required." European and IMF officials are set to visit Athens on Monday. Greece's request for talks on Thursday was widely seen as a step toward activating the aid package. Greek government bonds, which had earlier come under renewed pressure, rebounded somewhat on Thursday, leaving yields elevated but off the day's highs. On Friday, 10-year Greek government bond yields rose to around 7.30%, pushing the premium demanded by investors to hold Greek government debt over German bunds to around 4.19 percenta ge points from around 4.08 percentage points late Thursday.
The British pound was also in play after the first televised prime ministerial debate led polls to show Liberal Democrats' leader Nick Clegg as the winner, while Conservatives and Labour's candidates treaded old ground. Clegg's strength stoked worries of a hung parliament, in which no party wins an outright majority, which have chronically pressured the pound this year.
Mexico's central bank on Friday left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5%, meeting expectations. In an accompanying statement, the bank said manufactured exports are recovering at a vigorous pace as economic activity in the United States improves, but that domestic consumption is soft. The bank also reiterated a 3% inflation target for late next year. In trading action, the IPC equity index recently fell 0.4%, and the currency edged up to 12.165 pesos per dollar compared with Thursday's level at 12.178 pesos.
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URANIUM - ACTION ALERT
Ux U3O8 Prices* (Uranium)
April 12, 2010 Posting
Spot: $41.50 -0.25. Bull market high in the cash market was $138.00.
The April Uranium Futures closed at $41.75. Uranium futures recent his a new bear market low of 40.00. June 13, 2007 hosted the bull market high of 154.95. Major support lies well under the market at $36.00.
The spot price of uranium quadrupled from 2004 to 2007. When it hit $138/lb, uranium became a certified bubble, which has now burst.
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ECONOMIC NEWS:
New construction of U.S. houses expanded for the third straight month in March, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Starts rose 1.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted 626,000 annualized units, strongest than the 610,000 pace expected by economists. This is the highest level of starts since November 2008. Starts were revised to an increase of 1.1% in February to 616,000 units. This compared with the prior estimate of a 5,9% drop to 575,000 units. Building permits, a leading indicator of housing construction, rose 7.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000. This is the highest level of permits since October 2008.
U.S. consumer sentiment dropped in early April, according to media reports on Friday of the Reuters/University of Michigan index. The consumer sentiment index fell to 69.5 in April from 73.6 in March. Economists had been expecting the sentiment index to hit 75 in April. While the economy has been picking up, consumers remain worried about jobs and their personal finances. The index hit a 28-year low of 55.3 in November 2008.
COMPANY NEWS:
The Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday charged Goldman Sachs & Co. and one of its vice presidents for defrauding investors by misstating and omitting key facts about a financial product related to subprime mortgages. The SEC alleged in a lawsuit that Goldman structured and marketed a collateralized debt obligation that hinged on the performance of subprime residential mortgage-backed securities. However, it failed to disclose the role that a major hedge fund, Paulson & Co., played in the portfolio selection process as well as the fact that the hedge fund had taken a short position against the CDO. The SEC's suit is aimed at the heart of one of the most profitable hedge fund trades in history. Paulson, headed by John Paulson, generated billions of dollars in profit in 2007 from bets against CDOs and other firms also made huge gains in similar trades as the housing market imploded, triggering a global financial crisis. The cost to protect Goldman Sachs debt from defau lt jumped the most since November 2008, rising 41.5 basis points to 131.5 basis points, according to data from CMA Datavision. GS declined 12.79%.
Google said Thursday its first-quarter net income rose to $1.96 billion, or $6.06 a share, from $1.42 billion, or $4.49 a share in the same period last year. Net revenue for the period ended in March came in at $5.06 billion. Excluding special items, Google said earnings for the quarter were $6.76 a share. Wall Street analysts had expected Google to post first-quarter earnings excluding items of $6.60 a share, and $4.95 billion in net revenue. GOOG fell 7.59%.
Bank of America said Friday its first-quarter profit fell to $3.2 billion, or 28 cents a share, from $4.2 billion, or 44 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Revenue fell 11% to $32 billion. Per share earnings are after preferred stock dividends and accretion. Analysts had estimated, on average, profit of 9 cents a share on revenue of $28 billion. First-quarter provision for credit losses was $9.8 billion, down from $13.4 billion in the first quarter of 2009. BAC dropped 5.49%.
General Electric said first-quarter profit attributable to shareholders dropped 32% to $1.87 billion, or 17 cents a share, as revenue fell 5% to $36.61 billion. Earnings drops at GE Capital, technology infrastructure and NBC Universal offset growing profits at energy infrastructure. From continuing operations, the industrial bellwether said it earned 21 cents a share, compared to estimates of earnings of 17 cents a share on revenue of $37.3 billion. GE said it may evaluate additional restructuring that will improve earnings power going forward. GE lost 2.72%.
Advanced Micro Devices on Thursday reported a first-quarter profit of $257 million, or 35 cents a share, compared with a loss of $416 million, or 66 cents a share, for the year-earlier period. Revenue was $1.57 billion, up from $1.18 billion for the same quarter in the year-earlier period. Adjusted income was 9 cents a share. The company's results included a one-time, non-cash gain of $325 million related to its deconsolidation of GlobalFoundries. Analysts had expected the company to post a loss of 3 cents a share, on revenue of $1.5 billion. For the current quarter, AMD said it expects revenue to be "down seasonally." However, Chief Executive Dirk Meyer said "near term cash flow is largely in line with our expectations," adding that "the real earnings powers will be apparent in the second half of 2010." "Near term numbers, while good are not great," he added. AMD declined 3.44%.
Gannett said Friday its first-quarter net income climbed to $117.2 million, or 49 cents a share, from $77.4 million, or 34 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings rose to 50 cents a share, from 25 cents a share. Revenue fell to $1.32 billion from $1.38 billion. Wall Street analysts expected earnings of 42 cents a share and revenue of $1.3 billion. GCI slipped 0.55%.
Mattel swung to a first-quarter profit of $24.8 million, or 7 cents a share, after losing $51 million, or 14 cents a share in the prior-year period, as sales rose 12% to $880.1 million. Demand for Disney Princess dolls and World Wrestling Entertainment and Toy Story-related items helped lift revenue. Analysts had expected a 2 cents a share loss on revenue of $861 million. MAT inched up 0.38%.
Boston Scientific said late Thursday that it resumed distribution of two of its heart devices after taking them off the market a month ago. The medical device maker said it resumed distribution "immediately" of its Cognis cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator and Teligen implantable cardioverter defibrillator. Boston Scientific, which took the devices off the market after failing to report manufacturing changes to the Food and Drug Administration, said it received FDA clearance for manufacturing changes to the devices. BSX rose 2.80%.
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Canadian TSE, TSE Venture and Canadian Dollar Commentary for our Canadian clients updated for Monday, April 19. Check the VR List below for Canadian Positive and Negative Volume Reversals ™.
The Canadian market fell on Friday, but did no worse than the US market, which is actually surprising given that Canada's top three sectors, Financials, Energy, and Metals & Mining, were the worst performers Friday. The TSE fell 140.86 or 1.15% to 12070.66.
Energy 146.64 -1.17
Financials 189.65 -1.31
Health Care 38.09 +0.47
Industrials 101.45 -1.30
Information Technology 30.79 +0.15
Metals & Mining 1,108.82 -27.44
Telecommunications 82.21 -0.34
Utilities 195.36 -0.35
Resistance 12,375, 12,875, 12,968, 13,771, 13,875, 13,983, 14,157. Support is 11,975, 11,909, 11,630, 11,420, 10,990, 10,800, 10,500, 10,384, 9500, 9300, 9140.
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TSE Venture:
The Venture held up quite well considering the decline in precious metal prices. The TSE Venture fell 12.66 or 0.75% to 1666.84. the correction was long overdue and we may very well see the 1630 level afterall.
Resistance is 1691, 1730, 1780, 1830. Support is 1631, 1548, 1530, 1500, 1429, 1403, 1383.
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THE CANADIAN DOLLAR (using the FXC Exchange Traded Fund):
The Canadian Dollar got hit hard Friday as traders sought the safety of the US Dollar and falling commodity prices hurts the Canadian currency. Worse than expected factory sales also hurt. FXC declined 0.98 to 98.24.
Canadian factory sales rose less than economists expected in February, with gains in rubber and chemicals eroded by shutdowns at petroleum and automobile plants. Sales increased 0.1 percent to C$44.1 billion ($44 billion), the eighth gain in nine months, Statistics Canada said in Ottawa. Economists predicted growth of 1 percent.
Resistance is 100.00 (we did it!), Next target is 102.00, 110.00. Support is 96.90, 96.37, 95.89, 93.28, 92.46, 92.01, 91.00, 89.75, and 85.18.
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My 'Annual Forecast Model' (VR Forecaster Report) is now posted on the VRtrader.com website and covers cyclical projections for the Dow Industrials, the TSX, Gold, Crude Oil, Ten Year Interest Rate Yields and the US Dollar Index. The Model has been published since 1987 and has garnered a respectable following among traders and investors seeking an overall 'timing' tool for the major markets. Remember, there is no price too high for good information!
Here is the link:
https://www.vrtrader...cribe/index.asp
If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to call me and leave a voice mail message at 928-282-1275 or email me at mark.vrtrader@gmail.com.
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TIMER DIGEST signals for Stocks, Gold and Bonds are available to Platinum subscribers on the Home Page. TIMER DIGEST is an independent ranking service and newsletter. VRtrader.com, Inc. and TIMER DIGEST have no affiliation.
TIMER DIGEST has named Mark Leibovit of VRTrader.com 'TIMER OF THE YEAR' for 2006 and was named the #2 Timer for 2007.
As of January 25, 2010, TIMER DIGEST has named Mark Leibovit the 7th Market Timer for the 5 year period ending 12/31/09; the 3rd Market Timer for the 8 year period ending 12/31/09 and the #2 Market Timer for the 10 year period ending 12/31/09.
As of January 25, 2009, TIMER DIGEST also named Mark Leibovit the #2 Gold Timer for the 10 year period ending 12/31/09!
More kudos - Mark Leibovit was named the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 10 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 3 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 8 year period ending in 2007; and the #8 Intermediate Market Timer for the 5 year period ending in 2007. NO OTHER ANALYST SURVEYED APPEARED IN ALL FOUR CATEGORIES FOR INTERMEDIATE MARKET TIMING AS PUBLISHED IN TIMER DIGEST JANUARY 28, 2008!
Mark Leibovit was also named the #1 Gold Timer for the one-year period ending March 25, 2008. Most recently, from: 12/26/08 to: 03/27/2009, he is ranked in the #5 position for 3 month return.
Current TIMER DIGEST signals for stocks:
'Buy' signal March 4, 2009.
'Sell' signal May 27, 2009.
'Buy' signal July 21, 2009.
'Sell' signal September 2, 2009.
'Buy' signal September 3, 2009.
'Sell' signal October 15, 2009.
'Buy' signal November 13, 2009.
'Sell' signal November 30, 2009.
'Buy' signal December 1, 2009.
'Sell' signal January 27, 2010.
'Buy' signal February 12, 2010.
'Sell' signal April 16, 2010.
Current TIMER DIGEST signals for Gold:
'Sell' signal November 30, 2009.
'Buy' signal December 1, 2009.
'Sell' signal January 27, 2010.
'Buy' signal February 12, 2010.
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VR WATCHLIST:
Deleting TGLDX, GGN and SPY
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DAILY VR LIST:
Editors note: The Daily VR List here is abbreviated with the full list only available to Platinum subscribers by clicking on 'Current VR List' on the Home Page of VRtrader.com.
Canadian shares are listed at the bottom of each section with the title: 'XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX'.
Silver subscribers who find this useful should upgrade to Platinum where you can pull down VR charts for many securities and watch the patterns unfold for yourself. There is no technical service on the planet that posts Positive and Negative VR! Why? Because they are proprietary to VRtrader.com!
How do you use this list?
Volume Reversals ™ are buy and sell triggers and are traders find them particularly useful, especially coming off market extremes as an indication of a change of direction. Use the VRs in conjunction with your other technical indicators and you've added a unique technical tool to your arsenal.
To see a visual representation of Volume Reversals ™, please go our Current Portfolio section and click on any recommended stock. Or, if you would like to get a VR Chart for a specific symbol, please click here. Please note that the list of symbols available is limited at this time.
VOLUME REVERSALS FOR FRIDAY, APRIL 16:
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POSITIVE VRs
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XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX Canadian Stocks
ATD.B ALIMENTATION COUCHE-T CL B
FIU FIRST URANIUM CORP NP
HGD.UN HORIZONS BETAPRO GLB TU-A
HOD HORIZONS BETAPRO NYME
HSD.UN HORIZONS BETAPRO S&P BEAR ETF
HXD HORIZONS BETAPRO S&P/TSX BP A
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U.S. Stocks
AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Products & S
ORB Orbital Sciences Corp
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
BKSC Bank Of South Carolina
JAXB Jacksonville Bancorp
BANKING Regional - Northeast Banks
ASRV Ameriserv Finl Inc Cap Tr I
CBNJ Cape Bancorp
BANKING Regional - Southeast Banks
FCFL First Community Bank Corp
BANKING Savings & Loans
BCSB Bcsb Bankcorp
FBC Flagstar Bancorp Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Healthcare Information Service
QSII Quality Systems Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Technical & System Software
CDNS Cadence Design Systems
CONSUMER DURABLES Sporting Goods
HED Head Nv
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Cleaning Products
ZEP Zep Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Personal Products
CL Colgate-Palmolive Co
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Textile - Apparel Footwear & A
NKE Nike Inc Cl B
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Business/Management Services
AGL Angelica Corp
HQS HQ Sustainable Maritime Indust
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Staffing & Outsourcing Service
KFRC Kforce.Com Inc
DRUGS Drug Delivery
QGLY Quigley Corp The
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Major
GSK Glaxosmithkline Plc Adr
LLY Eli Lilly & Company
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Other
ADLR Adolor Corporation
ARNA Arena Pharmaceuticals
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor Equipment & Mate
TRT Trio-Tech Internat
ENERGY Oil & Gas Drilling & Explorati
NOG Northern Oil and Gas
ENERGY Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
ZN Zion Oil And Gas Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Debt
BLJ Blackrock Nj Muni Bond Trust
EDV Vangrd Extended Duration Etf
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
ALM Allmerica Securities Tr
BOM PowerShares DB Base Metals Dou
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Foreign
FXY Rydex CurrencyShares Japanese
FINANCIAL SERVICES Diversified Investments
ESGR Enstar Group Inc
PVD Administradora Fp Prov
HEALTH SERVICES Health Care Plans
HUM Humana Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Long-Term Care Facilities
GBR Cabeltel Intl Corp
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Instruments & Supplies
ANGO Angiodynamics
KNSY Kensey Nash Corp
INTERNET Internet Software & Services
CRH Coram Healthcare
LEISURE Resorts & Casinos
CNTY Century Casinos Inc
ISLE Isle Of Capris Casinos
MANUFACTURING Diversified Machinery
MX Metso Corp
MANUFACTURING Pollution & Treatment Controls
ERII Energy Recovery Inc.
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION General Building Materials
CUO Continental Materials Cp
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Waste Management
EEI Ecology & Environment A
TRR Trc Companies Inc
MEDIA Broadcasting - TV
TZA Tv Azteca Sa De Cv Ads
MEDIA Publishing - Periodicals/News
MNI Mcclatchy Company (The)
SSP E.W. Scripps Company
METALS & MINING Gold
CGR Claude Resources Inc
GRZ Gold Reserve Inc
REAL ESTATE REIT - Diversified/Industrial
PW Pittsbgh & Wv Railroad
RETAIL Discount
BJ Bj's Wholesale Club Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Communication Equipment
ARRS Arris Group Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Processing Systems & Products
VII Vicon Industries Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Wireless Communications
CHU China Unicom Ltd Ads
RCNI RCN Corp
TOBACCO Cigarettes
RAI Reynolds American Inc
TRANSPORTATION Major Airlines
BAB British Airways Plc Adr
UTILITIES Diversified Utilities
AEE Ameren Corp
PCG Pg&E Corp Holdings Co
UTILITIES Electric Utilities
AEP American Electric Power
BKH Black Hills Corp
WHOLESALE Drugs Wholesale
ABC Amerisourcebergen Corp
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NEGATIVE VRs
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XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX Canadian Stocks
AEM.UN AGNICO EAGLE MINES
AGI.UN ALAMOS GOLD, INC.
CNQ.UN CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LTD
CRQ.UN CLAYMORE CANADIAN FUN
CWW.UN CLAYMORE S&P GLOBAL WATER
ERF.UN ENERPLUS RES FUND
G.UN GOLDCORP
GBU GABRIEL RESOURCES LTD
HAU HORIZONS BETAPRO DJ-A
HBU HORIZONS BETAPRO COME
HEU HORIZONS BETAPRO S&P/TSX CEBP
HGU.UN HORIZONS BETAPRO S&P/
HOU HORIZONS CRUDE OIL BULL PLUS
HXU HORIZONS BETAPRO S&P/
MRU.A METRO INC CLASS A SUB CL A
NA.UN NATIONAL BANK OF CANA
RIM RESEARCH IN MOTION LI
SJR.B SHAW COMMUNICATIONS I CL B
SLW.UN SILVER WHEATON CORP
TCM.UN THOMPSON CREEK METALS CO
UTS UTS ENERGY CORPORATIO
XEG.UN ISHARES CDN S&P/TSX C
XGD ISHARES CDN S&P/TSX G
XIC IUNITS COMPOSITE CDN
XIU.UN IUNITS S&P/TSX 60 IND
XSP ISHARES CDN S&P 500 H
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U.S. Stocks
AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Major Dive
BA Boeing Co
GR Goodrich Corp
AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Products & S
AIR Aar Corp
AVAV Aerovironment Inc
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Manufacturers - Major
SORL SORL Auto Parts Inc
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Parts
ARGN Amerigon Inc
JCI Johnson Controls Inc
BANKING Foreign Regional Banks
BAP Credicorp Ltd
BBD Banco Bradesco Sa
BANKING Money Center Banks
BAC Bank Of America Corp
C Citigroup
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
AMNB American Natl Bnkshrs Va
BBT Bb&T Corp
BANKING Regional - Midwest Banks
CMA Comerica Inc
CRBC Citizens Republic Bancorp Inc
BANKING Regional - Northeast Banks
BARI Bancorp Rhode Island Inc
BPFH Boston Private Fincl Hld
BANKING Regional - Pacific Banks
BOH Bank of Hawaii Corp
CATY Cathay General Bancorp
BANKING Savings & Loans
AF Astoria Financial Corp
BKJ Bancorp of New Jersey Inc
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Peripherals
SSYS Stratasys Inc
COMPUTER HARDWARE Data Storage Devices
BRCD Brocade Communications
DRAM Dataram Corp
COMPUTER HARDWARE Networking & Communication Dev
FNSR Finisar Corporation
JNPR Juniper Networks
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Application Software
ACTU Actuate Corporation
BMC Bmc Software Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Information & Delivery Service
FDS Factset Research Systems
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Information Technology Service
ACXM Acxiom Corp
NCR Ncr Corp
CONGLOMERATES Conglomerates
GE General Electric Co
GY Gencorp Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Business/Management Services
ABM Abm Industries Inc
AM American Greetings Cp A
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Rental & Leasing Services
ACY Aerocentury Corp
AER AerCap Holdings
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Technical Services
ACM Aecom Technology Corporation
DRUGS Biotechnology
AMGN Amgen Inc
ANX Adventrx Pharmaceuticals Inc
DRUGS Drug Delivery
ALKS Alkermes Inc
NKTR Nektar Therapeutics
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Other
ALTH Allos Therapeutics Inc.
BIOD Biodel Inc
ELECTRONICS Printed Circuit Boards
BHE Benchmark Electronics
SANM Sanmina-sci Corp
ELECTRONICS Scientific & Technical Instrum
AERG Applied Energetics Inc
ATE Advantest Corp
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Broad Line
ADI Analog Devices Inc
AMD Advanced Micro Devices
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Integrated Cir
AMCC Applied Micro Circuits
BRCM Broadcom Corp Cl A
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Memory Chips
ISSI Integrated Silicon Sol
SNDK Sandisk Corp
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Specialized
ACTL Actel Corp
ALTR Altera Corp
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor Equipment & Mate
ASX Advanced Semicondctr Ads
ATMI Atmi Inc
ENERGY Independent Oil & Gas
APC Anadarko Petroleum Corp
BEXP Brigham Exploration Co
ENERGY Major Integrated Oil & Gas
BP Bp Plc
COP Conocophillips
ENERGY Oil & Gas Drilling & Explorati
BBG Bill Barrett Corp
BPZ Bpz Resources Inc
ENERGY Oil & Gas Pipelines
APL Atlas Pipeline Prtnrs Lp
CQP Cheniere Energy Partners Lp
ENERGY Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
EPE Enterprise Group Holdings LP
ETP Energy Transfer Pntr Lp
FINANCIAL SERVICES Asset Management
AMP Ameriprise Financial Inc
BEN Franklin Resources Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Debt
ADX Adams Express Co
AINV Apollo Investment Corp
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI Index Fund E
ACWX iShares MSCI ACWI ex US Index
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Foreign
APF Morgan Stan Asia-Pac Fd Inc
ASA Asa Ltd
FINANCIAL SERVICES Credit Services
ACF Americredit Corp
ADS Alliance Data
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Regiona
AI Arlington Investment Group
BLK Blackrock Incorporated
FOOD & BEVERAGE Dairy Products
DF Dean Foods Company
LWAY Lifeway Foods Inc
FOOD & BEVERAGE Farm Products
CQB Chiquita Brands Intl Inc
FOOD & BEVERAGE Food - Major Diversified
AFCE AFC Enterprises Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Hospitals
CYH Community Health Systems
HEALTH SERVICES Long-Term Care Facilities
ESC Emeritus Corp
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Appliances & Equipment
ATSI Ats Medical Inc
BABY Natus Medical
INSURANCE Property & Casualty Insurance
ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd
AHL Aspen Insurance Holdings
INSURANCE Surety & Title Insurance
FNF Fidelity National Finl
INTERNET Internet Information Providers
GOOG Google
INSP Infospace Incorporated
INTERNET Internet Service Providers
ELNK Earthlink Incorporated
GEX Globix Corp
LEISURE Lodging
HMIN Home Inns and Hotels Managemen
IHG Intercontinental Hotels Grp Ad
LEISURE Resorts & Casinos
ASCA Ameristar Casinos Inc
CTRP Ctrip.com International
MANUFACTURING Industrial Electrical Equipmen
AIMC Altra Industrial Motion Inc.
BDC Belden Inc
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Cement
EXP Eagle Materials Inc
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION General Building Materials
ACO Amcol International Corp
DHR Danaher Corp
MEDIA Broadcasting - TV
NXST Nexstar Broadcasting Group
SBGI Sinclair Broadcast Gp A
MEDIA CATV Systems
BSY British Sky Broadcstg Gp
CMCSA Comcast Corp Cl A
METALS & MINING Aluminum
AA Alcoa Inc
ACH Aluminum Corp China
METALS & MINING Gold
AEM Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd
EGO El Dorado Gold Corp
METALS & MINING Nonmetallic Mineral Mining
AHGP Alliance Holdings GP LP
CHBT China-Biotics Inc
METALS & MINING Silver
CDE Coeur D'alene Mines Corp
SLW Silver Wheaton Corp
METALS & MINING Steel & Iron
CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
CPSL China Precision Steel Inc
REAL ESTATE Mortgage Investment
HTS Hatteras Financial Corp
NLY Annaly Mortgage Mngt Inc
REAL ESTATE Property Management/Developmen
DFT DuPont Fabros Technology
FRG Fronteer Development Group
REAL ESTATE REIT - Office
CRO CRT Properties Inc
REAL ESTATE REIT - Residential
DX Dynex Capital Inc
ELS Equity Lifestyle Properties
REAL ESTATE REIT - Retail
KRG Kite Realty Grp Tr
RETAIL Auto Parts Stores
MDS Midas Inc
ORLY O'reilly Automotive Inc
RETAIL Catalog & Mail Order Houses
HSNI HSN` Inc.
RETAIL Department Stores
BONT Bon-Ton Stores Inc
JCP J.C. Penney Company Inc
RETAIL Home Furnishing Stores
WSM Williams Sonoma Inc
RETAIL Home Improvement Stores
HD Home Depot Inc
LOW Lowe's Companies Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Apparel Stores
ANF Abercrombie & Fitch Co
ARO Aeropostale Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Communication Equipment
CMTL Comtech Telecommun Corp
DSPG Dsp Group Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Processing Systems & Products
LIFE Lifeline Systems Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Telecom Services - Domestic
CTL Centurytel Inc
HTCO Hickory Tech Corp
TOBACCO Cigarettes
LO The Lorillard Group
MO Altria Group Inc
TOBACCO Tobacco Products
UVV Universal Corp
TRANSPORTATION Air Services
BRS Bristow Group Inc
PAC Grupo Aeroportuario Pac S.A.B
TRANSPORTATION Railroads
CNI Canadian Natl Railway
CP Canadian Pacific Ltd
TRANSPORTATION Shipping
ALEX Alexander & Baldwin Inc
DAC Danaos Corp
TRANSPORTATION Trucking
FWRD Forward Air Corporation
UTILITIES Diversified Utilities
DPL Dpl Inc
MGEE Mge Energy Inc
UTILITIES Electric Utilities
AES Aes Corporation
DTE Dte Energy Co
UTILITIES Water Utilities
ARTNA Artesian Resources Corp Cl A
WHOLESALE Auto Parts Wholesale
GPC Genuine Parts Co
WHOLESALE Drugs Wholesale
BJGP Beijing Medpharm Corp
CAH Cardinal Health Inc
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What is our true national debt?
http://www.truthin08.org/
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I will be speaking at the Money Show in Las Vegas, May 10-13 at Caesar's Palace. The link to the event is below:
http://www.moneyshow...sp?scode=017336
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Fed Officials Hint at Repeat of 'Extended Period' Pledge
Top Federal Reserve officials show little urgency about softening the central bank's commitment to hold rates low for a long time, suggesting the Fed will repeat the pledge when it meets late this month.
The Fed has held benchmark borrowing costs near zero to help the economy recover from the worst downturn in decades. It has promised to hold rates exceptionally low for an extended period to encourage borrowing.
However, as the economy shows signs of recovery, notably the addition of 162,000 jobs in March, financial markets are watching for any evidence that policymakers are ready to soften their commitment to an extended period of low rates.
Such a switch would be seen as a precursor to tightening financial conditions, though how soon is also a matter of speculation.
Fed officials who spoke on Thursday appeared to agree with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who told Congress earlier this week that the central bank expects very low rates will be needed for an extended period, but that if conditions improve or inflation rises, the Fed would respond.
"At some point in the future, we're going to need to begin to adjust the language, to begin to see changes in the substance of the policy," Atlanta Fed Bank President Dennis Lockhart told reporters after addressing a business group in Pensacola, Fla.
"The substance of the language, I continue to support," he said, adding he was not calling for any immediate changes to it.
Lockhart is not a voter on the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year. The Federal Reserve holds its next policy meeting on April 27-28.
Another senior Fed official, Richmond Fed Bank chief Jeffrey Lacker, said earlier this week that recent signs of recovery have led him to think that a muting of the extended period language should come "sooner rather than later."
However, Lacker said on Thursday he did not see any pressing need to remove the phrase from the Fed statement yet.
"I'm comfortable with interest rates where they are now," Lacker, also a non-voter, told reporters at a Fed symposium on credit markets in Charlotte, N.C.
The Richmond Fed president said that once the Fed drops the extended period phrase, it would not necessarily mean that it will raise interest rates shortly thereafter.
"There's no set period of meetings or months" before the Fed would raise borrowing costs, he said. St. Louis Fed Bank President James Bullard said the "extended period" promise should reflect more "conditionality" on the state of the economy.
Bullard, an FOMC voter this year, said the pledge should not be linked to a specific period. "Everything depends on economic performance, and we'd like to be able to convey that," Bullard told reporters after a speech in New York.
Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Fed, struck a somewhat bullish tone on the economy, saying that her own thinking has turned the corner and she is now confident "the economy is on the right track." Yellen also said she expected consumer and business spending to sustain economic recovery once the impact of policy stimulus fades.
Still, subdued inflation and a "terribly high" jobless rate mean the Fed's pledge to keep interest rates at near-zero for an extended period is appropriate, she told a meeting of Financial Executives International in San Francisco.
"At some point though, as the economy continues to expand, the Fed will have to pull back on some of this extraordinary stimulus," she said.
Yellen is not an FOMC voting member this year, although she is a lead candidate to replace Donald Kohn as Fed vice chairman when he retires in June.
A fifth Fed president who spoke on Thursday, Dallas Fed Bank President Richard Fisher, assured at a Johns Hopkins University conference that the Fed would not print money to fund U.S. budget deficits, but he did not directly address the outlook for monetary policy.
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Goldman, The SEC and the New Face of Wall Street
Wall Street is a shadow of its former self, and not just because of the financial trauma in late-2008. Technology has long been reducing the relevance of big-city financial centers. Much of what passed as standard operating behavior among previous generations of bankers and money managers working in the financial canyons of New York, London and other cities can now be accomplished in the hinterlands, and probably at a lower cost. But if the writing has been on the wall for some time, it may be accelerating with today's news that the SEC has charged Goldman Sachs (GS) with a rather large fraud in regards to its dealings with the subprime mortgage market. (Predictably, Goldman denies the charges and claims the government's case is unfounded.)
Lisa Endlich told us the partnership that has for so long endured and triumphed had a "culture of success" via her 2000 book Goldman Sachs. A decade hence, Michael Lewis, among others, paints a less-flattering profile of Goldman Sachs and its Wall Street counterparts in The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine on the subject of subprime mortgages. As for a more general cultural indictment, and one of the more memorable phrases to come out of the financial crisis, Matt Taibbi's in last year's Rolling Stone piece calls Goldman the "great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity."
One pundit wonders if we've gone too far. "Are we really to believe that Goldman is the worst offender?" asks Dennis O'Brien at the Huffington Post. "Or are they a convenient scapegoat? Politically, nothing could be a safer bet than attacking Goldman."
In any case, this is now officially the golden age for attacking the world's leading investment bank. Rightly or wrongly, Goldman is on the ropes like never before. One might wonder if the firm will survive after reading today's news. Given the sharp drop in the price of Goldman shares, as we write, the thought has crossed the minds of a few traders.
Meantime, if anyone was wondering if the SEC was willing to bare its teeth in the wake of Harry Markopolos' indictment of the government's financial industry watchdog, today's revelation seems to suggest an answer. If the SEC is in fact a new and more aggressive agency, that represents no less than a complete transformation from the institution that Markopolos encountered when he tried for a decade to warn the government that Bernie Madoff was running history's biggest Ponzi scheme. To no avail. The old SEC, he writes in No One Would Listen, was unable or unwilling to do much of anything to act on behalf of investors' best interestseven when the evidence of an ongoing fraud was handed to the institution on a silver platter.several times.
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Iran Could Have Nuke 'Any Day' Now
Leading national security expert Frank Gaffney tells Newsmax that Iran could be armed with nuclear weapons "any day" now, and warns that the regime is likely to use them to bring about their sought-after "apocalypse."
Gaffney, founder and president of the Center for Security Policy, also says sanctions against Iran will ultimately fail and a military strike must be seriously considered.
Gaffney was nominated by President Ronald Reagan in April 1987 to become assistant secretary of defense for International Security Policy, the senior position in the Defense Department with responsibility for policies involving nuclear forces, arms control and U.S.-European defense relations.
He also served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Nuclear Forces and Arms Control Policy.
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Petraeus: Holocaust Survivors Made World Better
The Holocaust survivors who helped build Israel "made our world better," U.S. Gen. David Petraeus said Thursday.
"The men and women who walked or were carried out of the death camps, and their descendents, have enriched our world immeasurably in the sciences and in the arts, in literature and in philanthropy," said Petraeus, keynote speaker at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum commemoration in the Capitol Rotunda.
"They have made extraordinary contributions in academia, in business, and in government. And, they have, of course, helped build a nation that stands as one of our great allies. The survivors have, in short, made our country and our world better, leaving lasting achievements wherever they settled."
Petraeus' speech came just days after the commander of Central Command, who directs U.S. deployments in the Middle East, said, "Israel is, has been, is and will be an important strategic ally of the United States."
Petraeus has sought to place in context his Senate testimony last month which drew some conservative and pro-Israel criticism and some liberal praise for linking some U.S. difficulties in the region with perceptions that the United States favors Israel.
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