Jump to content



Photo

Crawford Perspectives 5/10/04


  • Please log in to reply
No replies to this topic

#1 TTHQ Staff

TTHQ Staff

    www.TTHQ.com

  • Admin
  • 8,597 posts

Posted 10 May 2004 - 02:32 PM

CRAWFORD PERSPECTIVES
Consulting Clients 040413

BOND YIELD (RATES) BREAKING UP THROUGH LONG-TERM DOWNTREND!!

On April 5, economic stats popped the Bond Yields (10-yr=TNX) exactly up to a Long Term downtrend line.
After a very minor pullback over recent days, this morning the rates have broken solidly above Major resistance.

We believe this is a Defining Moment in Rates, Bonds, US Dollar & Commodities in general.

As in 1987, the US Dollar has been declining for several years and the decline is accelerating.
Our government viewed this with a mild brush-off, seemingly unconcerned with the loss of Value.

Yet, it ultimately became neccessary to step in and support the Dollar with a rise in Interest Rates.

And THAT is what precipitated the CRASH of 1987 in the fall of that year.
Fortunately for us, it was perfectly timed by Planetary Configurations.

The selling today, while not yet extreme in Price or TRIN/ARMS (0.93), is quite overwhelming in Advances-Declines.

The greatest danger is that the selling is Steady and Persistent. It appears to be tightly 'controlled' in that it is not yet accelerating into a Capitulation or Panic condition, which could indicate the approach of a Bottom.

We are close to the devastatingly Violent period, April 19-24, which we analysed at length in the April CP newsletter.

News over the next 11 days will NOT be helpful to stocks or economy!

It appears that the good earnings comparisons and economic data release are covering a rapid EXIT by Smart-Money
interests.

Whether we rally once more near to highs, which we DOUBT, situations across a wide front are becoming untenable.
By that we mean Technical, Economic and Geo-Political.

THIS ACTION ON RATES TIMES THE ONSET OF INCREASING DANGER IN INTERNATIONAL MARKETS AND ECONOMIES!

ADDITIONAL SALES AND OTHER DEFENSIVE MEASURES ARE CRITICAL & IMMEDIATE!!


Arch Crawford
CRAWFORD PERSPECTIVES
520-577-1158
www.CrawfordPerspectives.com


Posted Image