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#181 jjc

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Posted 06 February 2011 - 11:54 AM

From Parker (Position Sizing) Feb 5th

"I think Gold will correct, perhaps to the 1225-1250 range. Old tops become support, and we have some old tops in that range. Plus, the 60-week moving average has historically served as support, and it's already at 1233.

After the correction, I would not be surprised to see gold have another bull run into ~May. Seasonally, gold often makes important tops in the Spring. See March 2008, May 2006."


Using Parkers methods as described in his presentations I calculate a weekly money flow T topping 7/4/11 on gold.... I don't have complete
faith in the method nor do I believe I am the best practitioner of said method. Just trying to prove its effectiveness to myself going
forward.

We won't know if another (positive) money flow T on the daily charts has occurred until we get oversold on the Money Flow
Index but it is quite possible.

#182 stubaby

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Posted 06 February 2011 - 01:52 PM

it is "perhaps" a bottom. my question was, why would a close on the lows after a big rally indicate trouble?
what would impress you?


cause up to this point the rally looks corrective to Senor

NO BS

Senor



SenorBS:

Up until the up-move on the 3rd - I would agree with you - now, however, holding above Wave 1 peak (55.20) followed by a move above the intraday high from the 3rd (57.02) would equal impulse. Time will tell.

http://stockcharts.c...9733&r=3252.png

stubaby

#183 jjc

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Posted 06 February 2011 - 01:59 PM

From Parker (Position Sizing) Feb 5th

"I think Gold will correct, perhaps to the 1225-1250 range. Old tops become support, and we have some old tops in that range. Plus, the 60-week moving average has historically served as support, and it's already at 1233.

After the correction, I would not be surprised to see gold have another bull run into ~May. Seasonally, gold often makes important tops in the Spring. See March 2008, May 2006."


Using Parkers methods as described in his presentations I calculate a weekly money flow T topping 7/4/11 on gold.... I don't have complete
faith in the method nor do I believe I am the best practitioner of said method. Just trying to prove its effectiveness to myself going
forward.

We won't know if another (positive) money flow T on the daily charts has occurred until we get oversold on the Money Flow
Index but it is quite possible.


Woops. from above oversold should read overbot on the Money Flow Index.

#184 johngeorge

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Posted 06 February 2011 - 03:07 PM

From Parker (Position Sizing) Feb 5th

"I think Gold will correct, perhaps to the 1225-1250 range. Old tops become support, and we have some old tops in that range. Plus, the 60-week moving average has historically served as support, and it's already at 1233.

After the correction, I would not be surprised to see gold have another bull run into ~May. Seasonally, gold often makes important tops in the Spring. See March 2008, May 2006."


Using Parkers methods as described in his presentations I calculate a weekly money flow T topping 7/4/11 on gold.... I don't have complete
faith in the method nor do I believe I am the best practitioner of said method. Just trying to prove its effectiveness to myself going
forward.

We won't know if another (positive) money flow T on the daily charts has occurred until we get oversold on the Money Flow
Index but it is quite possible.


jjc

Thank you for your input here and on the FF board.

Best to you.
Peace
johngeorge

#185 dougie

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Posted 06 February 2011 - 07:28 PM

well for that matter , the move off the 2010 highs is not clearly impulsive yet either

it is "perhaps" a bottom. my question was, why would a close on the lows after a big rally indicate trouble?
what would impress you?


cause up to this point the rally looks corrective to Senor

NO BS

Senor



#186 dharma

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Posted 07 February 2011 - 11:07 AM

elliott died broke the champion of elliott wave , prechter , has been wrong on everything for decades. here we are in 2011. and there are many situations that are similar to 1979. the shah toppled. inflation was higher and raging. the hunts had the silver market cornered. the metals were in bull markets. along w/just about every other commodity. nothing is exact but the situation is quite similar. today the world is deep in depth and the economy quite fragile. inflation is just rearing its ugly head and the powers that be, due to high unemployment, are not starting to ratchet up rates yet. in my trading, i dont forecast. its a bull market. so , most situations resolve themselves w/higher highs. i trade off the situations that the market presents. i buy weakness and lighten up into strength. w/broad parameters. we are in a bottoming process here. which smells of accumulation. i am long and waiting. for clues. the miners have had some good days last week. now we are @a natural resistance # 1350. and 1358 is a break through point on my work. i am patient in here. not doing much although i did sell orzcf @3.6 bought @.4 from here on out i want to raise cash. i am no hurry. most probably i wont sell anything until we reach new highs. egypt does not have oil or power like iran did under the shah , but it does have the suez canal and it has been an ally. and the unrest is not just in egypt. this situation is explosive. and i think the market is fairly complacent. there are too many catalysts out there to talk about. but the similarity to 79 is worth noting. patience in here the cycles i watch are just turning up the shorter cycles were trumped by the yearly cycle , which i think bottomed, we shall see dharma

#187 johngeorge

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Posted 07 February 2011 - 11:35 AM

Found this interesting bit of comment this am at ZERO HEDGE:

JP Morgan Accepts Gold Bullion As Collateral – Silver Backwardation To Lead To Short Squeeze?

"JP Morgan announced today that from now on they will accept physical gold bullion as collateral. This is a sign of gold’s further remonetisation in the global financial and monetary system. It may signal that JP Morgan is having difficulty in securing gold bullion in volume. JP Morgan is the custodian for many of the gold and silver exchange traded funds. They will not accept ETF trust gold as collateral. In October, the clearing house of global exchange CME Group – CME Clearing – announced it will now accept gold as collateral for trades on the exchange. Gold bullion can be used for margins for CME trades, ranging from crude oil, gold, grains, equity indexes and Treasury bonds. Given the current monetary, macroeconomic and geopolitical risk gold is an attractive alternative to debt, equities or other paper assets as collateral. JP Morgans’s move shows how gold bullion’s fungiblity and tangibility as an asset makes it attractive and shows gold’s increasing importance in the financial system. Interestingly, the CME is storing their collateral gold at JP Morgan Chase Bank in London. The exchange said it hoped to add additional depositories in the future but there has been no announcement of developments in this regard."
Peace
johngeorge

#188 JGUITARSLIM

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Posted 07 February 2011 - 12:36 PM

in my trading, i dont forecast. its a bull market. so , most situations resolve themselves w/higher highs. i trade off the situations that the market presents. i buy weakness and lighten up into strength. w/broad parameters.
dharma


Very simple concept, few understand that is how to make $$$ in this game. Stepping up day to day...

Then there are forecasters and fancy technicians, I believe most don't even have to balls to put their money where their mouths are.

#189 senorBS

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Posted 07 February 2011 - 03:00 PM

it is "perhaps" a bottom. my question was, why would a close on the lows after a big rally indicate trouble?
what would impress you?


cause up to this point the rally looks corrective to Senor

NO BS

Senor



SenorBS:

Up until the up-move on the 3rd - I would agree with you - now, however, holding above Wave 1 peak (55.20) followed by a move above the intraday high from the 3rd (57.02) would equal impulse. Time will tell.

http://stockcharts.c...9733&r=3252.png

stubaby


sorry but what you label in blue as a 1-2 and a possible 3 if we go more norte could just as well be a completing a-b-c correct? How's that an impulse wave? if we do the blue 3, then another 4 down, and then another high we could get 5. Nada concrete either way so far, Senor is el eneutral uno.

BSing away

Senor

#190 senorBS

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Posted 07 February 2011 - 03:02 PM

in my trading, i dont forecast. its a bull market. so , most situations resolve themselves w/higher highs. i trade off the situations that the market presents. i buy weakness and lighten up into strength. w/broad parameters.
dharma


Very simple concept, few understand that is how to make $$$ in this game. Stepping up day to day...

Then there are forecasters and fancy technicians, I believe most don't even have to balls to put their money where their mouths are.



I choke on my balls often, how bout you?

NO BS

Senor