194 replies to this topic

[inamosa]

Alf Field's Gold EW charts and his views are posted on Sinclair's site.

Just read it.

Thanks for the heads up.

He's one of the best gold analysts I've seen out there.

What he's saying lines up closely to what my work tells me, which is good to hear.

ok i will bite
his work appears to be diametrically opposed to yours. he is confirming sinclairs call for 1650 . and says the upmove should start soon. what i hear , and have heard you saying is 1275-1305.
dharma

No, what I've been wondering about is how deep this correction will get - and I posted above what I think. Almost every quarterly correction in gold gets down to either the 150- or 200-SMA. This one hasn't - but this correction precedes a parabolic move, and before parabolic moves gold can sometimes consolidate instead of having a normal correction, and that's what may be happening here (as reflected in my post above with the price levels I gave).

My view has been pretty consistent. Unlike many on this board, I was expecting the type of action we've had the past several weeks. Here's a post of mine from late November:

I'm looking for one last correction before the blowoff move begins into next year. It should begin soon...for now, I would look for a break below $1350 as a sign that it's getting underway.

link


Another one from early Dec:

Personally, I think the miners look like they could use a breather here. Take a look at a chart of SLW and compare it to its 200-day MA, for example. If these things are going to go parabolic they need to get some rest because some of the miners already look parabolic. Also, I believe the parabolic top you speak of will not come in Feb. but rather closer to the Apr/May/Jun timeframe. I know the seasonal trend is for a top in Feb. and I know that gold is famous for tops in Feb., but I don't see it happening this time. One of the reasons is that I think it will need to move higher past Feb. to really bring the public in.

link


Another one from mid-December where I actually spell out my price target for the parabolic:

As you know we're going to get a massive parabolic up leg in the first or second quarter of next year (I'm looking at Apr/May/Jun and I believe you're looking at Feb for that top) and things get dicey as volatility increases. I look for $1600+ minimally before the top there is made and the n00bs get taken to the woodshed.

link


That last post was even directly addressed to you. But, I guess some people can have a short memory. Those who don't know I always try to bring good stuff to this board - and I think I usually do.

are you being hostile ?
dharma

No, I was just responding to your poorly conceived post.

As I said, it seems that some have a short memory.

cheers

[dharma]

Alf Field's Gold EW charts and his views are posted on Sinclair's site.

Just read it.

Thanks for the heads up.

He's one of the best gold analysts I've seen out there.

What he's saying lines up closely to what my work tells me, which is good to hear.

ok i will bite
his work appears to be diametrically opposed to yours. he is confirming sinclairs call for 1650 . and says the upmove should start soon. what i hear , and have heard you saying is 1275-1305.
dharma

No, what I've been wondering about is how deep this correction will get - and I posted above what I think. Almost every quarterly correction in gold gets down to either the 150- or 200-SMA. This one hasn't - but this correction precedes a parabolic move, and before parabolic moves gold can sometimes consolidate instead of having a normal correction, and that's what may be happening here (as reflected in my post above with the price levels I gave).

My view has been pretty consistent. Unlike many on this board, I was expecting the type of action we've had the past several weeks. Here's a post of mine from late November:

I'm looking for one last correction before the blowoff move begins into next year. It should begin soon...for now, I would look for a break below $1350 as a sign that it's getting underway.

link


Another one from early Dec:

Personally, I think the miners look like they could use a breather here. Take a look at a chart of SLW and compare it to its 200-day MA, for example. If these things are going to go parabolic they need to get some rest because some of the miners already look parabolic. Also, I believe the parabolic top you speak of will not come in Feb. but rather closer to the Apr/May/Jun timeframe. I know the seasonal trend is for a top in Feb. and I know that gold is famous for tops in Feb., but I don't see it happening this time. One of the reasons is that I think it will need to move higher past Feb. to really bring the public in.

link


Another one from mid-December where I actually spell out my price target for the parabolic:

As you know we're going to get a massive parabolic up leg in the first or second quarter of next year (I'm looking at Apr/May/Jun and I believe you're looking at Feb for that top) and things get dicey as volatility increases. I look for $1600+ minimally before the top there is made and the n00bs get taken to the woodshed.

link


That last post was even directly addressed to you. But, I guess some people can have a short memory. Those who don't know I always try to bring good stuff to this board - and I think I usually do.

are you being hostile ?
dharma

No, I was just responding to your poorly conceived post.

As I said, it seems that some have a short memory.

cheers

ok fine. life is short. i have communicated w/you for the last time
good bye and good luck
dharma

[dougie]

full moon; tempers short around here. you two are fine posters and keep this place sane and well worth reading every day.

[stubaby]

full moon; tempers short around here. you two are fine posters and keep this place sane and well worth reading every day.

dougie:

I agree totally - "Can't we just all get alone"! Life is definately "too short"!

stubaby

[jjc]

Go easy guys.

[inamosa]

That's kind of you, guys. I don't have tiffs with anyone on this board and don't want any. I'm willing to forgive and forget. Life is too short to get hung up over online spats - especially with someone who I've usually agreed with in the past. My apologies if I hurt any of your feelings, dharma.

[tradermama]

full moon; tempers short around here. you two are fine posters and keep this place sane and well worth reading every day.

Yes, please you both are awesome..the gold forum is the only one I even care to post on because egos dont seem to get in the way..unlike FF. It's so easy to misunderstand things from a post..the purpose is to share if you are going to post and we cant tell the market what to do...we have to let it tell us...Let's look at the longer term relationship here..These are not arguments but opinions...the market has a way of humbling us with our opinions..whether we be bear or bull...

Peace and harmony guys! You both and others here are greatly appreciated by many...I have learned so much here...and...we can all learn from each other..no matter how accurate one has been in the past

TM

[JGUITARSLIM]

Thank you hedgies. Nice panic here. All loaded up as of this morning.
Comments from Russell...

Lately there's been a tide of uninformed warnings to the effect that gold is in "a dangerous bubble." These anti-gold know-nothings haven't seen a gold bubble yet, but I'm predicting that a phenomenal gold surge (call it a "bubble" if you like) lies ahead. The only thing the recent gold correction has accomplished is to encourage the gold-haters and to knock the amateur traders out of the gold market.

Gold is in a true primary bull market, and the bull's number one task now is to rise with as few riders on his back as possible. This is the reason for recent erratic (and probably scary) gold action. As for my subscribers, my advice is "Disregard the amateur warnings and ride the bull."

[inamosa]

Just IMHO:

I say it's 60/40 that the correction isn't over versus it is over. If it isn't over, I'm looking for $1275-1305 as the bottom.

We are short-term oversold here so should see a bounce develop by the middle of next week (probably between $1330-40), but I would give it a high chance now that my target range above will be hit within the next few weeks. And, in fact, I would adjust it up a bit to $1280-1310.

Let me add that $1315 is just asking to be taken out...I bet there are a lot of sucker stops there.

We should see a great rally begin once the target range I've given is hit (worst case we see $1265 before it starts, but unlikely), and it should eventually go parabolic. The target for the rally is ideally $1600+ (look at Alf Field's comments for more detail - he does a good job of detailing where the next rally should take gold).

Just IMHO.

[senorBS]

there is no sign of a bottom to Senor's eyes, in fact this is where a waterfall decline could occur - be careful amigos. NO BS Senor