194 replies to this topic

[dharma]

my job is be present in the markets. if someone(in this case aly is feeling edgy-life is short) i cant be bothered . i have my own life and own position in the market to deal w/. no one made me feel bad, or anything like that. we will all have periods where we are correct or wrong in the market its the nature of the beast. i accept that. my motto is dont mistake genius for a bull market , it keeps me humble. no one on this board , knows anyone else personally , or what they are personally going through. inside and outside the market. civil behavior is what i expect, if not i am not required in any way to respond or deal w/you! ok as the title of this thread states , we are , i believe in a bottoming process. my oscillators are telling me that . and today only confirms my belief. could i be wrong and we do go to 1260,absolutely. i do my own work and i follow it. i post my thoughts and trades daily. i am on the buy here. i am very lightly on margin(6%) . 1341 marks the end of the last price cycle and 1325 is the death zone for this decline if we break into the 1341. i was looking @a weekly chart of nem , which has an inverse h&s pattern. the lows this week came back and back kissed the neckline.its not unusual to go 2-3 % below the neckline. which we havent done yet HGNSI declined again yesterday by 6.7 points to 26.9% lowest level since august 6th gold was@1205.9 gdxj is the only miner index , and it has taken over leadership that had been over sold w/daily rsi divergences . now xau/hui/gdx all have hourly divergences, thus i am on the buy. can the divergences be taken out. of course. but, in my view its a low risk entry dharma

Edited by dharma, 20 January 2011 - 11:44 AM.

[stubaby]

Tim Ord Chart - GDX at support - backtests breakout line (normal and bullish action long-term)
http://stockcharts.c...9302&r=7808.png

Leader GDXJ at 38.2% FIB
http://stockcharts.c...7840&r=5432.png



stubaby

[dharma]

w/you stubaby ahhh another day and bull flesh getting burned and so begins the battle for 1341. gold is much stronger than the miners which i have 2 observations about: 1 miners are way undervalued. the hui is @price reflecting gold prices 100lower 2 investors dont understand or appreciate the miners. if last time was any indication @all then these things will run @some point in this bull. they will be like internet stocks only w/earnings divergences holding i am buying selectively dharma

[johngeorge]

dharma

Thanks for the update. Just want to let you know that I did some buying yesterday and agree we are heading higher end of Jan/Feb time frame. I look toward the funnymentals more than TA as my TA often leaves much to be desired. As of now I have the highest percentage of my investments in PM stocks and physical than at any time in my nearly 30 years of investing. Riding that bull!

Best to you.

ps As an aside the dollar is still on a slippery downhill slope. WEEKLY CHART

Edited by johngeorge, 21 January 2011 - 11:26 AM.

[dharma]

dharma

Thanks for the update. Just want to let you know that I did some buying yesterday and agree we are heading higher end of Jan/Feb time frame. I look toward the funnymentals more than TA as my TA often leaves much to be desired. As of now I have the highest percentage of my investments in PM stocks and physical than at any time in my nearly 30 years of investing. Riding that bull!

Best to you.

jg
charts are painted pictures and i am a technician!!!!! of course the money is made by following the trend. and in this case as all western fiats are being debased at an alarming rate, splitting hairs for the bottom is an exercise in futility. ride the bull .
today comex raised margins on metals and other commodities (so as to disguise their intent) and yet the metals are holding. someone is out there buying these metals that are being dumped. smoke and mirrors. this in the finals analysis will be about preserving ones pp. fiats historically have never ever been the place to do that. and this time is no different . the central banksters are screaming their actions. i am hard of hearing , but not deaf! @some point in phase 3 all the traders , even most of the very best are left in the dust. it happened last time and it will happen again
just my 2c
dharma

[senorBS]

w/you stubaby

ahhh another day and bull flesh getting burned
and so begins the battle for 1341. gold is much stronger than the miners
which i have 2 observations about:
1 miners are way undervalued. the hui is @price reflecting gold prices 100lower
2 investors dont understand or appreciate the miners. if last time was any indication @all then these things will run @some point in this bull.
they will be like internet stocks only w/earnings
divergences holding
i am buying selectively
dharma

or miners are leading the way lower? No one knows for sure but it often happens that way, and miners have been weak with a very strong stock market - that's muy malo IMO. And all this is happening with a weak dollar, again muy malo in this amigo's opinion.

BSing away

Senor

[stubaby]

w/you stubaby

ahhh another day and bull flesh getting burned
and so begins the battle for 1341. gold is much stronger than the miners
which i have 2 observations about:
1 miners are way undervalued. the hui is @price reflecting gold prices 100lower
2 investors dont understand or appreciate the miners. if last time was any indication @all then these things will run @some point in this bull.
they will be like internet stocks only w/earnings
divergences holding
i am buying selectively
dharma

or miners are leading the way lower? No one knows for sure but it often happens that way, and miners have been weak with a very strong stock market - that's muy malo IMO. And all this is happening with a weak dollar, again muy malo in this amigo's opinion.

BSing away

Senor

SenorBS:

All valid points and duly noted - what would change your mind?

stubaby

[senorBS]

w/you stubaby

ahhh another day and bull flesh getting burned
and so begins the battle for 1341. gold is much stronger than the miners
which i have 2 observations about:
1 miners are way undervalued. the hui is @price reflecting gold prices 100lower
2 investors dont understand or appreciate the miners. if last time was any indication @all then these things will run @some point in this bull.
they will be like internet stocks only w/earnings
divergences holding
i am buying selectively
dharma

or miners are leading the way lower? No one knows for sure but it often happens that way, and miners have been weak with a very strong stock market - that's muy malo IMO. And all this is happening with a weak dollar, again muy malo in this amigo's opinion.

BSing away

Senor

SenorBS:

All valid points and duly noted - what would change your mind?

stubaby

amigo I can see both sides here, a $20-30 gold rally from here and I am no longer bearish. I look at the weekly charts and it to my old eyes there is mucho risk to the downside. In Senor's opinion one cannot deny that the price action has not been very good lately. I hope anyone who is long here has a STOP, if you trade or even invest without a stop it is a recipe for disaster. I fear some get too emotionally attached to gold, and I behoove them to have a price point where they say no mas. This is not just for gold, it is for all markets. Best to all, it's not a matter of being right or wrong, we all will have some winners and losers. It's about admitting when things change and you need to recognize that, which is why I keep talking about having a STOP.

BSing away

Senor

[dharma]

w/you stubaby

ahhh another day and bull flesh getting burned
and so begins the battle for 1341. gold is much stronger than the miners
which i have 2 observations about:
1 miners are way undervalued. the hui is @price reflecting gold prices 100lower
2 investors dont understand or appreciate the miners. if last time was any indication @all then these things will run @some point in this bull.
they will be like internet stocks only w/earnings
divergences holding
i am buying selectively
dharma

or miners are leading the way lower? No one knows for sure but it often happens that way, and miners have been weak with a very strong stock market - that's muy malo IMO. And all this is happening with a weak dollar, again muy malo in this amigo's opinion.

BSing away

Senor

ok your points seem valid however they do not take the present bull market into consideration
the miners have lagged almost this entire bull market. the broads and miners become joined @the hip when there is a broad based decline. otherwise they each have their own drum
on this rise since july , gold has risen w/the dollar rising. europeans have a long history of monetary upheavals. so they recognize the value of gold as a store of value. on this side of the pond lies the big shorts. so , while the dollar has been falling so has gold. no big surprise here. @some point in the cycle gold will rise and the dollar (more traditional relationship)will fall.
you my friend are a trader, to a trader stops are survival. on my trades i have stops , on my positions i let them run. and they have most of my core is up over 200%. if i want out of core , i get out. and @times i do just that for what i think offers better value.
there are many ways that professionals deal w/the market. for non experienced amateurs they better have stops or it could be their last play
i sleep very well if the gold market is up or down. sure there are drawdowns like now. my accounts made new highs the last day of the year. so, drawdowns are to be expected. unless one buys peaks, sooner or later the tide will carry his boats higher
dharma

[senorBS]

w/you stubaby

ahhh another day and bull flesh getting burned
and so begins the battle for 1341. gold is much stronger than the miners
which i have 2 observations about:
1 miners are way undervalued. the hui is @price reflecting gold prices 100lower
2 investors dont understand or appreciate the miners. if last time was any indication @all then these things will run @some point in this bull.
they will be like internet stocks only w/earnings
divergences holding
i am buying selectively
dharma

or miners are leading the way lower? No one knows for sure but it often happens that way, and miners have been weak with a very strong stock market - that's muy malo IMO. And all this is happening with a weak dollar, again muy malo in this amigo's opinion.

BSing away

Senor

ok your points seem valid however they do not take the present bull market into consideration
the miners have lagged almost this entire bull market. the broads and miners become joined @the hip when there is a broad based decline. otherwise they each have their own drum
on this rise since july , gold has risen w/the dollar rising. europeans have a long history of monetary upheavals. so they recognize the value of gold as a store of value. on this side of the pond lies the big shorts. so , while the dollar has been falling so has gold. no big surprise here. @some point in the cycle gold will rise and the dollar (more traditional relationship)will fall.
you my friend are a trader, to a trader stops are survival. on my trades i have stops , on my positions i let them run. and they have most of my core is up over 200%. if i want out of core , i get out. and @times i do just that for what i think offers better value.
there are many ways that professionals deal w/the market. for non experienced amateurs they better have stops or it could be their last play
i sleep very well if the gold market is up or down. sure there are drawdowns like now. my accounts made new highs the last day of the year. so, drawdowns are to be expected. unless one buys peaks, sooner or later the tide will carry his boats higher
dharma

glad to hear that amigo, the post about stops was for the many who I believe are out there that don't use them. Enough said on the subject and best of luck!

NO BS

Senor