Jump to content



Photo

above 1358 indicates...............


  • Please log in to reply
177 replies to this topic

#1 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 08 February 2011 - 11:48 AM

in the middle of my morning tea. 1358 marks the beginning of the next price cycle. i am not comfortable saying the bottom is in until 1375falls into the rear view mirror. now, i have studied edwards and maghee for years and years. i recognize that an h&s pattern signals the end of the move. it takes time to form(look @a monthly chart of bonds going back into the late 70s for the left shoulder. head in 81 and right shoulder in 84. that is a valid h&s pattern that marked the bottom and 30 years of bull) . but on an hourly gld chart there is a double inverse h&s pattern. a pull and a push between the bears and the bulls. to mark the bottom of this leg. and for that i think its valid. w/the sentiment indicators and cots confirming and mcclellan posting this piece:http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mcclellan/mcclellan020711.html. i think its time for a new thread. want to make $$$ in bulls take a seat. someday, this bull will breathe its last. gold is not a religion or ******* for me . its a vehicle whose time has come. when we enter into the green pastures forever phase, i will pack up and leave. for now, i am stalking. we have not had a meaningful correction in the metals since 08 . i think 11 produces another healthy cleanout. 1st we pick up all those on the side of the road , waiting @higher #s to become believers. then they will be shown the woodshed for a good licking! the end of march sees jupiter is 180 from saturn .jupiter=expansion saturn=contraction. this= end of this leg and probably the end of the move for now in the broads as well. also mercury goes retrograde. miscommunication. the gold stocks are primed. i know some here are ready. thanks for the communications. we will rumble higher. the well ran dry on the downside. accumulation finished. time for markup. dharma

#2 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 08 February 2011 - 12:51 PM

if you think its just the gold bugs buying the metals . think again. i spent 3 years living in india. india and china have been through many major currency upheavals. its demand for physical at a grass roots level.
http://www.zerohedge...tt-gold-tsunami
dharma

#3 johngeorge

johngeorge

    Member

  • TT Member+
  • 4,616 posts

Posted 08 February 2011 - 01:11 PM

dharma

$GOLD Daily Chart

Your thoughts..........do we need to see gold close over the 50 day sma to confirm this rally is for real? Thanks.

Best to you.
Peace
johngeorge

#4 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 08 February 2011 - 01:15 PM

dharma

$GOLD Daily Chart

Your thoughts..........do we need to see gold close over the 50 day sma to confirm this rally is for real? Thanks.

Best to you.

jg- i watch the longer moving averages 150 and 200 for signals. the shorter term stuff is noise. for traders. 1375 is the next #in the price cycle clearing that would indicate that it wants to @least complete the cycle.
dharma

#5 johngeorge

johngeorge

    Member

  • TT Member+
  • 4,616 posts

Posted 09 February 2011 - 10:00 AM

Of note this am: Gold at EUR1,000/oz - Strong Physical Demand Leading To Illiquid Conditions
Peace
johngeorge

#6 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 09 February 2011 - 10:37 AM

jg-yes the fundamentals for physical is stellar, the paper gold market is another story. w/jpm controlling the gld i am only using gld as a short or if i hedge, then a short leg yesterday china raised rates its an admission that inflation is higher than their rates. banksters are always behind the curve they also announced that their wheat crop is in trouble. for me the marker is 1375 a couple of closes above that and i think we will have an assault on the highs, until then it is possible to revisit the lows and maybe see new lows. the fib 1260 could be a reality. make no mistake the short term cycle bottomed so i am looking for a high in march and the yearly cycle also seems to have bottomed. i am cautious in here. until the 1375 is exceeded. longer term , i am bullish. right here in the very short term it remains to be seen dharma

#7 stubaby

stubaby

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,658 posts

Posted 09 February 2011 - 12:31 PM

dharma: I have several people I follow (and respect) that are looking for a mid-March low 1,220 to 1,260, after near-term strength over the next several weeks - then blastoff. I agree that 1,375 needs to be recaptured - from EW perspective Wave 1 could have ended with yesterday's high - with Wave 2 "shakeout" ending today or tomorrow morning - then Wave 3 will take us above 1,375. That's what I'm watching ST. Intermediate-term I am less interested in Gold price - more interested in Miners, which are in the beginning of "dancing to their own tune" IMHO stubaby :D

#8 JGUITARSLIM

JGUITARSLIM

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 618 posts

Posted 09 February 2011 - 12:53 PM

dharma:

I have several people I follow (and respect) that are looking for a mid-March low 1,220 to 1,260, after near-term strength over the next several weeks - then blastoff. I agree that 1,375 needs to be recaptured - from EW perspective Wave 1 could have ended with yesterday's high - with Wave 2 "shakeout" ending today or tomorrow morning - then Wave 3 will take us above 1,375.

That's what I'm watching ST. Intermediate-term I am less interested in Gold price - more interested in Miners, which are in the beginning of "dancing to their own tune" IMHO


stubaby :D



Few folks I follow are calling for continued correction with March bottom as well. Maybe we follow the same guys? :D
It's very well possible this recent upswing was nothing more than corrective.
Considering weekly intermediate cycle, yearly cycle, COT report, Sentiment, GTU nav, GLD % change, and good ol'Fundamentals.
My bias remains UP.

Edited by JGUITARSLIM, 09 February 2011 - 12:54 PM.


#9 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 09 February 2011 - 12:55 PM

dharma:

I have several people I follow (and respect) that are looking for a mid-March low 1,220 to 1,260, after near-term strength over the next several weeks - then blastoff. I agree that 1,375 needs to be recaptured - from EW perspective Wave 1 could have ended with yesterday's high - with Wave 2 "shakeout" ending today or tomorrow morning - then Wave 3 will take us above 1,375.

That's what I'm watching ST. Intermediate-term I am less interested in Gold price - more interested in Miners, which are in the beginning of "dancing to their own tune" IMHO


stubaby :D

stubaby- i havent seen the latest sentiment figures. but, i read every where that folks are looking for 1260the fib retracement. somehow i doubt the market accommodates them.
dharma

#10 stubaby

stubaby

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,658 posts

Posted 09 February 2011 - 02:11 PM

Interesting Chart:

Jesse's Crossroads Cafe Blogspot


stubaby