181 replies to this topic

[dharma]

my guess is everyone dissected each move (not alysomji a hat tip) and w/so many miners looking weak. and price correcting in the metals , they jumped ship. riding the bull is not easy, and it will not be for the faint of heart. in normal circumstances i rely on a 9bar wilder rsi. it rides shotgun. but in parabolics, it gets thrown off the bus. it will get me out way to early. gold will make new highs on this leg. my target for this price cycle is 1460. if it busts that, then i will look @the next price cycle. its a moving target. and i cant be a stone wall in my thinking . a hat tip to all those who are still riding. i threw the dead wood away, underperforming. and have raised 20% cash. i want to have 30% cash into the cycle highs. as i think a large correction is on deck. no question silver has gone parabolic. i will hold silver till @least the old 52 dollar highs and beyond that. but, unless you have tons of silver. i have a friend that has a bunch and since $30 he has sold a bag every 5+. not a bad strategy. when it tops, some years out, it will be ugly. on the next leg i am going to have 1/2 of the 45 miners i just had. it will be too much to watch as the 3rd phase gets underway. in elliott terms once 1 and 2 get out of the way , watch out. the large wave for commodities is wave 5 of 5. ti could also extend. anyway, for now i am watching silver make new contract highs. give the bull some room, daily fluctuations are not revealing, they are misleading. the last wave, is where you can walk away from the table and alter your financial situation. there is going to be shrinking pp. more folks on the bread line of the 21st century. shrinking middle class. rising oil prices is an assurance of that. remember govt collects taxes on oil . we send our wealth to the exporting nations. looking a @tesla no more hydrocarbon cars for me. i have bought my last one dharma imho, i think we are topping on this leg. its a process

Edited by dharma, 23 March 2011 - 10:21 AM.

[rooster]

Dharma, I wasn't involved in the last gold bull in the 70's, in your experience what do you think will be better to invest in. Explorers, small producers or mid to big producers? Thanks

[dharma]

Dharma, I wasn't involved in the last gold bull in the 70's, in your experience what do you think will be better to invest in. Explorers, small producers or mid to big producers? Thanks

it depends on;
how much research you do?
from the markets side-most miners have underperformed. so it is a very complex and difficult situation. my largest position is gg. and has been for quite some time. i continue to hold it even though it has been underperforming. going back to the depression and looking @hm it went from 3-144 does that performance have to happen again?gg is an extremely low cost producer and they give a small dividend. yet it is underpperforming
choose your poison
dharma

[PMILLY]

my guess is everyone dissected each move (not alysomji a hat tip) and w/so many miners looking weak. and price correcting in the metals , they jumped ship. riding the bull is not easy, and it will not be for the faint of heart. in normal circumstances i rely on a 9bar wilder rsi. it rides shotgun. but in parabolics, it gets thrown off the bus. it will get me out way to early. gold will make new highs on this leg. my target for this price cycle is 1460. if it busts that, then i will look @the next price cycle. its a moving target. and i cant be a stone wall in my thinking . a hat tip to all those who are still riding. i threw the dead wood away, underperforming. and have raised 20% cash. i want to have 30% cash into the cycle highs. as i think a large correction is on deck. no question silver has gone parabolic. i will hold silver till @least the old 52 dollar highs and beyond that. but, unless you have tons of silver. i have a friend that has a bunch and since $30 he has sold a bag every 5+. not a bad strategy. when it tops, some years out, it will be ugly.
on the next leg i am going to have 1/2 of the 45 miners i just had. it will be too much to watch as the 3rd phase gets underway. in elliott terms once 1 and 2 get out of the way , watch out. the large wave for commodities is wave 5 of 5. ti could also extend. anyway, for now i am watching silver make new contract highs.
give the bull some room, daily fluctuations are not revealing, they are misleading. the last wave, is where you can walk away from the table and alter your financial situation. there is going to be shrinking pp. more folks on the bread line of the 21st century. shrinking middle class. rising oil prices is an assurance of that. remember govt collects taxes on oil . we send our wealth to the exporting nations. looking a @tesla no more hydrocarbon cars for me. i have bought my last one
dharma
imho, i think we are topping on this leg. its a process

I sold my silver positions today and am now watching. I see tons of divergences on my indicators. I had already sold my gold trading positions.

I guess I expect a pretty sizable correction as well and was nervous, but I always sell to early.

Good luck everyone.

Anyone buying any ZSL or shorting gold as a hedge?

[rooster]

Dharma, I wasn't involved in the last gold bull in the 70's, in your experience what do you think will be better to invest in. Explorers, small producers or mid to big producers? Thanks

it depends on;
how much research you do?
from the markets side-most miners have underperformed. so it is a very complex and difficult situation. my largest position is gg. and has been for quite some time. i continue to hold it even though it has been underperforming. going back to the depression and looking @hm it went from 3-144 does that performance have to happen again?gg is an extremely low cost producer and they give a small dividend. yet it is underpperforming
choose your poison
dharma

Thanks for the response Dharma. I'm not sure if we will get the same movement in gold stocks as in the depression. In those days no one could own gold so they only had one place to go and that was the miners. I guess the best bet is to be in all, bullion, explores and some producers.

[inamosa]

Thanks for the hat tips, dharma. My time studying the market has told me two reasons many small investors can't even beat index funds let alone successfully trade the gold secular bull (which 90% of people are better off buying and holding instead of trying to trade - and it is why I keep a significant core buy-and-hold position myself):

1. they're too impatient and react too quickly to market movements, and
2. they are usually too lazy and don't do enough homework.

If a small investor can overcome these, good to great investing will be visiting him/her shortly if it hasn't already.

I don't know why folks are bearish here. Underlying environment is great for gold: gold sentiment is low, it's been in a multi-month consolidation, seasonality is bullish, the dollar is falling apart, no sign of QE ending with housing and unemployment still sucking, lots of uncertainty and political and other turmoil going on globally, etc.

I don't buy gold and silver stocks and instead use gold and silver futures with a level of leverage that I can tolerate. Having said that, it appears institutions have started putting more money into gold and silver stocks very recently and it wouldn't surprise me at all if, near the end of this run, they catch up to the metal like gangbusters. Heaven knows that I've seen miners go gangbusters before quite near to past multi-week to multi-month tops in gold.

Regardless, people need to focus on what gold the metal is doing. It leads everything else. It is the vehicle many are investing with to get exposure to the PM space and it was the first area to consistently make new highs (silver is below its '80 high and gold miners are only recently making new all-time highs as measured by Barrons' gold miners index). Unlike the '65-80 run, it is easy to buy directly into gold bullion today and one doesn't need to purchase gold companies to have exposure to the PM space.

If you're going to buy individual companies, be prepared to do serious homework or you will eventually get robbed at some point. How many of you invested in these companies actually do serious homework? I would wager very few, and it's one of the reasons small investors lose out - as I mentioned above.

Like dharma, I believe a big correction will be coming in the gold market (what the Aden Sisters call a 'D-wave') but I actually think we are still several weeks and several dollars away from that. Like I said before, big corrections come after parabolic tops. At least some of the public needs to be pulled in...we are seeing that a bit in silver but not yet for gold at all. There is no parabolic top in gold right now and the public is not paying attention to it or the dollar. Dollar will be making headlines before the end of this run, I think. People are not scared yet.

As for silver, it will simply follow the direction of gold more than 90% of the time...so people need to look at what gold's going to do to understand where silver is headed. I think we could easily see $45-50 on this run. If we do, I will be selling and waiting for a big correction. I never even look at charts of silver but have been heavily weighted in it during this run because of the possibility of hitting $45-50 versus gold topping out somewhere between say $1550 and 1650 (just guessing - not trying to pretend I can forecast where exactly gold will top but I think $1550 is very achievable, if not $1600+).

Oscillators simply follow price. I would never trust an oscillator for knowing when to sell in a secular bull market, although it can sometimes be useful for helping determine when to buy - and I mean only in a secular bull market. I'll be honest: I'm not a fan of oscillators (I like to make fun of them a lot, actually). If I had to choose one to use (and I do not give it a lot of weight in my analysis and only care at all for it on those occasions where things are more unclear than usual), it would be Wilder's RSI. Price action and time is more important to me - both of which indicate we are not even at the halfway point of this run quite yet.

My fav buy point is on dips to the 150- to 200-day moving averages when many are freaking out. If it dips to an area on or between these two averages and people aren't freaking out, then I worry instead of rushing in. But, those times will be very rare in a secular bull market and you will likely be able to clearly recognize them after being involved in this space for a little while.

Looking for $1500+ in the coming weeks, and maybe $1600+ after that. But a few months from now the newbies be getting taken to the woodshed if I'm seeing things right.

Good article here: http://thedailygold....lity-2/?p=6204/

All of the above = my humble opinion only.

Edited by alysomji, 23 March 2011 - 12:24 PM.

[stubaby]

The most telling comment on this thread so far is from alysomji:

Dollar will be making headlines before the end of this run, I think. People are not scared yet.

Mother Earth is doing a great job for "old guard" of obfuscation! Food prices kick-start Golbal Revolution, Earthquake & Tsunami & Nuclear have many questioning, now a new "War" amid the growing Middle-East turmoil.

Fourth Turning anyone!

stubaby

[JGUITARSLIM]

My bias is for few more weeks upside as well. I think we shall see 1500+.
Updated weekly cycle I follow. Anticipating blowoff, followed by decline into June/July which is normal timeframe for bottom (not intended to indicate price target).
Armstrong has impt. date in mid June as well. The boards waking up ...

Edited by JGUITARSLIM, 23 March 2011 - 01:10 PM.

[dharma]

Thanks for the hat tips, dharma. My time studying the market has told me two reasons many small investors can't even beat index funds let alone successfully trade the gold secular bull (which 90% of people are better off buying and holding instead of trying to trade - and it is why I keep a significant core buy-and-hold position myself):

1. they're too impatient and react too quickly to market movements, and
2. they are usually too lazy and don't do enough homework.

If a small investor can overcome these, good to great investing will be visiting him/her shortly if it hasn't already.

I don't know why folks are bearish here. Underlying environment is great for gold: gold sentiment is low, it's been in a multi-month consolidation, seasonality is bullish, the dollar is falling apart, no sign of QE ending with housing and unemployment still sucking, lots of uncertainty and political and other turmoil going on globally, etc.

I don't buy gold and silver stocks and instead use gold and silver futures with a level of leverage that I can tolerate. Having said that, it appears institutions have started putting more money into gold and silver stocks very recently and it wouldn't surprise me at all if, near the end of this run, they catch up to the metal like gangbusters. Heaven knows that I've seen miners go gangbusters before quite near to past multi-week to multi-month tops in gold.

Regardless, people need to focus on what gold the metal is doing. It leads everything else. It is the vehicle many are investing with to get exposure to the PM space and it was the first area to consistently make new highs (silver is below its '80 high and gold miners are only recently making new all-time highs as measured by Barrons' gold miners index). Unlike the '65-80 run, it is easy to buy directly into gold bullion today and one doesn't need to purchase gold companies to have exposure to the PM space.

If you're going to buy individual companies, be prepared to do serious homework or you will eventually get robbed at some point. How many of you invested in these companies actually do serious homework? I would wager very few, and it's one of the reasons small investors lose out - as I mentioned above.

Like dharma, I believe a big correction will be coming in the gold market (what the Aden Sisters call a 'D-wave') but I actually think we are still several weeks and several dollars away from that. Like I said before, big corrections come after parabolic tops. At least some of the public needs to be pulled in...we are seeing that a bit in silver but not yet for gold at all. There is no parabolic top in gold right now and the public is not paying attention to it or the dollar. Dollar will be making headlines before the end of this run, I think. People are not scared yet.

As for silver, it will simply follow the direction of gold more than 90% of the time...so people need to look at what gold's going to do to understand where silver is headed. I think we could easily see $45-50 on this run. If we do, I will be selling and waiting for a big correction. I never even look at charts of silver but have been heavily weighted in it during this run because of the possibility of hitting $45-50 versus gold topping out somewhere between say $1550 and 1650 (just guessing - not trying to pretend I can forecast where exactly gold will top but I think $1550 is very achievable, if not $1600+).

Oscillators simply follow price. I would never trust an oscillator for knowing when to sell in a secular bull market, although it can sometimes be useful for helping determine when to buy - and I mean only in a secular bull market. I'll be honest: I'm not a fan of oscillators (I like to make fun of them a lot, actually). If I had to choose one to use (and I do not give it a lot of weight in my analysis and only care at all for it on those occasions where things are more unclear than usual), it would be Wilder's RSI. Price action and time is more important to me - both of which indicate we are not even at the halfway point of this run quite yet.

My fav buy point is on dips to the 150- to 200-day moving averages when many are freaking out. If it dips to an area on or between these two averages and people aren't freaking out, then I worry instead of rushing in. But, those times will be very rare in a secular bull market and you will likely be able to clearly recognize them after being involved in this space for a little while.

Looking for $1500+ in the coming weeks, and maybe $1600+ after that. But a few months from now the newbies be getting taken to the woodshed if I'm seeing things right.

Good article here: http://thedailygold....lity-2/?p=6204/

All of the above = my humble opinion only.

for all of us in this sector , this piece is a keeper. most lose money in investing. so when you have a bull/bear market you have to make hay while the sun shines. i dont, and havent participated in trading ranges in years, its too frustrating. this last big correction , from whatever price it occurs is when you have to buy and hold. if you keep doing the same things and expect different results - well einstein has been given credit for saying that one. some get to participate longer than others, before the market cleans them out. there are really very very few traders that are skilled enough to consistently use the market as their own personal bank accounts. kwave comes to mind. now is the time to look over your mistakes. and change your mo, or you will keep getting the same results.
this piece by armstrong is quite provacative.
http://www.martinarm...003-01-2011.pdf
dharma
just as a note. i am personally in an unfavorable cycle till 5/2/11 , so i am chilling a bit. and i agree w/alisomji that 1500 is quite doable. 1st i want to see 1460 fall.
stubaby-your elliott work is clear simple and concise. yes, this nuclear disaster will cause higher food prices. remember govt taxes oil so the higher oil goes the more they take in. higher oil prices cause almost all stuff to go higher. i do expect food shortages . escalating food prices. if you have not started a food storage program , it will be wise to start one. i have seaweed stored(natural minerals, anti cancer). mainecoastseavegetables.com,grains, beans, honey, spices , etc. it is very prudent. the world is changing quickly. california is right in the earthquake belt
dharma

[stubaby]

Wave 3 of 5 of extended 5th - "giddy-up" stubaby