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topping , the process 2


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#11 dharma

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Posted 20 April 2011 - 02:00 PM

a couple of things. bull markets climb a wall of worry. the miners. on my hourly charts of the indexes-hui, gdx, xau. the market came into descending angles off the highs. and backed off and as of right now have only corrected .236 from the highs to the recent lows. subnormal. i fully think the miners will make new highs, pauses and corrections will continue to be part of the process. 44.91 is an extension fib on silver , so naturally resistance here and the market is pausing. sure its a good idea to be alert. but above all keep things in perspective. i am expecting acceleration soon. into a short term cycle high next week. i am about 5% in cash because of my accounts appreciation. i want to bring that figure up as we climb. dharma

#12 dharma

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Posted 20 April 2011 - 02:27 PM

my education started in 78 when i met jim sinclair.
if dines is the original gold bug
then jimmy is mr gold
http://news.goldseek.../1303311900.php

dharma

#13 cgnx

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Posted 20 April 2011 - 04:58 PM

Cmon lets get real. Silver has only gone from like 20 to 45 in the last year. This is no parabolic. Thats only up 150%. Ive had stocks do that in a month or week. I think folks are way underestimating this. We have a loooooooooooooooong way to go. Very few will reap the rewards, I'm sure its going to be very hard to hold onto. GL. And by the way, it is different this time. At least for the metals. This kind of thing hasnt happened to metals for almost a generation. So almost nobody can imagine whats about to occur. And since we are talking larger dollar amounts nobody will imagine the heights in price. Its different because these prices have never been achieved. And its different because in this bull new supply CANNOT be produced like DORITOS, such as New Homes or issue more shares of stock. This is truly different. And after its all said and done come and tell me this didnt blow your freakin mind. I FEEL IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If it can be cornered, it will.

#14 inamosa

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Posted 21 April 2011 - 01:37 AM

Silver keeps chugging along. Looks like there is a good chance it will top above $50. The question is, by how much? I'm watching the Dollar here and I don't think you will see any significant pressure on the metals until the Dollar ends its decline and starts a bear market rally. I think we are still weeks away from that happening. Let's think round number possibilities: gold to just above $1600? Dollar to just below 70? Silver to just above...? $60? Anyway, I think watching the Dollar closely will help one time the top - as well as keeping track of the divergences between gold and silver as well as their stocks. We will have the top of this rally before the end of June, and a larger than usual secular bull market correction thereafter - I think it's almost certain. Just don't know exactly when or where. I continue to hold and watch in the meantime, ignoring the short-term dips as usual (that's for the n00bs) and am now seriously wondering if we've entered the runaway phase of this rally already.

Edited by alysomji, 21 April 2011 - 01:44 AM.

"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#15 inamosa

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Posted 21 April 2011 - 02:00 AM

Posted Image
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#16 dharma

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Posted 21 April 2011 - 10:00 AM

alysomji, you are the only one here that gets(who posts) it. the rest are dissecting every wiggle, the market does not care about miners not performing when i think they should. we are in the largest crises that has occurred in my lifetime. the fed , ecb, and everyone else is monetizing the debt. @some point folks will not want to hold currency. sure i want the miner to perform/outperform , and i think they will @some point. herre we are in the band of s/r 1495-1513. battling!
and the battle rages. silver hit 46 last night and just now. when do the shorts panic? they will. @what price? i am going the right way. gold is up 500% since its lows. and i think we are in phase 2. and i agree w/alysomji we will have a good correction , which will be a buying opportunity. i am 93% long, and i plan on cutting back , but not yet. i think before this run is over this band of resistance will be dusted.
i follow this seasonal chart, which is alittle different from yours
http://www.seasonalc...ssics_gold.html
and i too show a gold top in late june.
we shall see.
dharma
ps. i have a friend that is sitting on 16k oz of silver, he is a nervous wreck , calls me every morning. he bought the stuff betwee 4-6. i told him be comfortable. do what you have to , to be comfortable, not to mention his gold holdings.
of course he was nervous @945 gold too.

#17 johngeorge

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Posted 21 April 2011 - 10:20 AM

dharma Speaking of % cash................At present I am 18% cash. Will pick up more physical silver on expected summer correction. I truly believe silver has at least a doubler from here. Presently am 50% stocks and 32% physical. That is as invested as I ever get in stocks and, of course, holding. :redbull: May put on a short for silver and gold via an inverse ETF at some point for downside protection, but, not yet. Thanks for the updates. :) Best to you. PS I want to thank alysomji for his continued analysis and commentary. He truly is a seasoned pro. B)
Peace
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#18 dougie

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Posted 21 April 2011 - 11:45 AM

meanwhile the miners are stuck in the mud

#19 johngeorge

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Posted 21 April 2011 - 12:10 PM

meanwhile the miners are stuck in the mud


Couldn't agree more with you dougie. :yes: Howsoever, I prefer to call it consolidation before a move up. :rolleyes: Next week should bring more clarity.
Peace
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#20 senorBS

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Posted 21 April 2011 - 12:20 PM

meanwhile the miners are stuck in the mud


they are "Dust in the wind"......

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 21 April 2011 - 12:24 PM.