222 replies to this topic

[stubaby]

i thought about titling this the point of recognition, but honestly, i dont think we are there yet.
that is down the road.
speculators and the hedge funds have substantially increased their long play, and the banksters obliged them by taking the other side. get ready for some volatility it is about to ratchet up several notches. its a time to decide what is core and what is trade able while 1750, should we get there, is quite something compared to the 252 lows, we are not in the end game here. folks are talking about debt, trying to raise the debt ceiling and using band aids, cuts a couple of billion on a 14 trillion dollar debt the real show will begin when it is clear that sovereigns cannot pay. then the point of recognition will be upon us. this is just a prelude. notice on the 22 month cycle highs , it ends w/a run. i suspect this one will display more volatility and more run. miners are poised for higher prices. and silver is very volatile by nature so anything is possible here. but i would not bet on new highs for silver here.
decide what is core and hold it. it is possible , but i doubt it, that we go into a larger run here. so better to have your plan in place when things are quiet . in the fray , it is too late your views will be jaded. this debt ceiling crises better end by aug2, mercury goes retrograde on august 2, if you have been paying attention to mercury retrograde periods, then you know reaching agreements during mercury retrograde preiods is difficult @best. i dont expect this move to be reflective of the straight up move gold has exhibited these last 10 days. get ready for some volatility. have your plan. and buckle up , arms and legs in the vehicle. we are leaving kansas
dharma
now this is not trading advice . do your own due diligence . do your homework
jag appears to have made an inverse h&s pattern

dharma:

Yes - JAG looks promising here-I like the large falling wedge on the weekly chart:

http://stockcharts.c...13229&r=575.png
http://stockcharts.c...13233&r=697.png
http://stockcharts.c...83445&r=485.png

stubaby

[stubaby]

Logical place for a pullback on GDX:
http://stockcharts.c...6338&r=4753.png
http://stockcharts.c...879302&r=98.png

Weekly chart very constructive here:
http://stockcharts.c...636571&r=76.png

Monthly Chart with H&S Target:
http://stockcharts.c...7821&r=9521.png


stubaby

[dougie]

i dont like how low the volume is on many of the juniors I am in: of course it is the dog days... also, i dont like how GDXJ has moved relatively more than my watch lists of non-gdxj issues but i dont think this is quite done to the upside here now. THis looks like a cycle inversion to me

[dharma]

remember gold has had 10-11 up days w/o a correction. +130. a pause is to be expected. the debt ceiling will be raised, imho that is not the issue. they will come to an agreement. the issue is the debt. and that has to be paid, or inflated away, or reneged on. and that is the issue. and it is not just the usa. this whole cycle will be about debt, sovereigns inability to pay, and how they handle that. the usa is in a unique situation, as the reserve currency they can print money. greece, portugal, italy, spain, ireland can not. they will have to leave the euro to do that. after ww1 germany was saddle w/debt to pay for the war. they could not weimar occurred. sovereigns either inflate the debt away or renege. not alot of choices. raising the debt ceiling is noise. no other country has a debt ceiling. its just a show. after this up move has breathed its last , i have been and continue to look for a buying opportunity. those lows in silver are tenuous @best and the next crop of price chasers in this sector will be shown the back of the woodshed. price chasing is not the road to riches. we kicked off this move w/a vault , it is not finished here. a few days of correction should be what we get. then off to the races. dharma taking the opportunity to add

[johngeorge]

stubaby

I can't thank you enough for your most generous sharing of charts here on the board as well as your public list not withstanding the many prescient calls you have made. Please know you are very much appreciated.

Best to you.


Yes - JAG looks promising here-I like the large falling wedge on the weekly chart:

http://stockcharts.c...13229&r=575.png
http://stockcharts.c...13233&r=697.png
http://stockcharts.c...83445&r=485.png

stubaby

[dharma]

downgrading jag @the bottom is par for analysts, thank you.
done for the day.
waiting for them to reach an agreement. and put that in the rear view mirror. then the reality is they have to deal w/that mountain of debt. the run before the return of apparent deflation. make no mistake , deflation is the force. they are just trying to delay its inevitable pull.
bob hoye
http://www.321gold.c...hoye072011.html
dharma

[dougie]

Stu: that daily GDX : back-kissing the UT line and failing is not bullish is it? If it powers through that line it would be highly bullish though. Might be safer to see that happn?

[JGUITARSLIM]

All eyes seem to be on that 38% rt/gap fill level. It would be bullish (and very telling) if we take out those highs here without filling that gap. Strong trends hold gaps. Used todays am weakness to grab some JAG. Good luck....

[stubaby]

Stu: that daily GDX : back-kissing the UT line and failing is not bullish is it? If it powers through that line it would be highly bullish though. Might be safer to see that happn?

dougie:

The "jump" over the declining tops line was the bullish indicator - hesitation here at the uptrend line is to be expected, as strength is gathered for another upward breakout. This is the 2nd challenge of this line and as you can see from the 1st GDX chart the pullback target would be right 'on top' of the declining tops line for a test from above. If that holds the 3rd attempt higher will most likley be successful - and another "jump" would be ultra-bullish.

Buy at the test of the declining tops line with a tight stop and add on my anticipated breakout above the uptrend line would be my advice. This is "classic" TA here - I'm still running with minimal "stop-losses" at this point, as I do not want to be whipsawed out at this juncture, when the upward momentum is just beginning.

Goodluck.

stubaby

[stubaby]

All eyes seem to be on that 38% rt/gap fill level.
It would be bullish (and very telling) if we take out those highs here without filling that gap.
Strong trends hold gaps. Used todays am weakness to grab some JAG.
Good luck....

JGUITARSLIM:

Bullish indeed! But it would be healthier to see a "pause that refreshes" here. IMHO


stubaby