285 replies to this topic

[dharma]

was this the bottom?! darn if i know for sure. in bull markets surprises are on the upside. page 22 got real bearish, drawdowns are part of the ride, if you cant ride, then your position is too big. if you lose sleep your position is too big. if you enter the fray, then buckle up the ride is going to give you whip lash. aem a major gold producer is going to zero, get into your bunker. the short cycle , which has and is reliable throughout the bull is calling for a high in december. will it be a new high, i have no idea. what i do know is there is a mountain of debt. the world is in a deflation. and the mo by the cbs is to try to paper it over. "inflate or die" we got the ecb -g20 meeting over the weekend. what are their choices? never listen to cbs do what they do. and right now, cbs are net buyers of gold. why is that if their currency is so sound. we are told that it was bold moves in 08 that saved the banking sector. whew! are banks more sound now, or has the frb system marked to market all its bad loans. hell no. its a game of confidence. as long as folks are confident in the system, it works. the public is and has been asleep @ the wheel, its the nature of the beast. but when you throw him out of his house, he cant find a job, sees his kids hungry he starts to wake up. we got a ways to go. has gold bottomed or is this a bounce? if you trade its a relevant question. if you are an investor. its a moot question. i sleep @night knowing that no fiat system in history has ever lasted. maybe this will be the 1st. oh did you see that mountain of debt accrued by politicians making promises to their constituents to get them elected ! also in history sovereigns never pay! they either renege or debase. one issue that i point to, is the bond market. bonds bottomed in 81 . the bond king got out and got short, he was early . calling turns is a real skill. few can do it consistently. kwave comes to mind. anyway, the bonds continue their topping process and one day the bond holders, will not be comfortable getting miniscule returns and the top will turn into a trend for higher rates. higher rates are bullish for the metals, its an admission by the powers that be that inflation is rising. houston there is a problem!. but @1st it will be bearish on the metals.its why i keep bringing up the bonds. something to keep an eye on. folks have been corralled into bonds seeking safety and returns on their dough. just in time , when the boat is loaded , to have the rug pulled. when can the mighty g20 do? not much , but print or let the sick sovereigns crash and burn. its not a matter of doing the right thing, its a matter of keeping the system going. there are years left to this thing. i think 4 armstrong thinks more. i really have no idea, but its what i think. take care of yourself , in the end its all you have. dharma

[dharma]

QE3 Just Secretly Happened and Few Have Taken Notice
http://goldnews.com/...e-taken-notice/
dharma

[dougie]

Thanks Dharma: I will be lightening up into this near term strength i think as i think a BIG swoon is coming to the broad markets soon and I dont think the miners have shown much capacity to diverge

[stubaby]

Gold "In Persective" from Gary at:

Biiwii Blogspot

stubaby

[dharma]

[quote name='stubaby' date='Oct 21 2011, 03:07 PM' post='600354']
Gold "In Persective" from Gary at:

Biiwii Blogspot

stubaby
[/quote)
in this piece the guy uses all the catch words that were used by top analysts to miss the move. too high too fast. yes , the market should march to the beat that they have set for it. this to me smells of a guy who is destined to miss the market. in the final parabolic the market will gallop and not to his drum or mine. lets see 1. if we have bottomed and if so 2 how this leg unfolds.
watch out, be careful of guys who have a plan for the market. reminds me of prechter, who has not been right on anything for decades.
dharma

[stubaby]

Looks like accumulation time to me!

http://stockcharts.c...87821&r=752.png

stubaby

[dougie]

nice stu though more down is in store per your WM, no?

[stubaby]

nice stu though more down is in store per your WM, no?

dougie:

Yep - and it can "stay down" for awhile if it wants to - the buy signal comes on a move up through WM %R -80 and is confirmed with a WM %R reading above -50 - but this is a monthly chart and I will rely on the Weekly and Daily in this price area for signals.

Bottom line a MAJOR BUY POINT is at hand! ..and Buying here, and if it goes lower Buying more is how you accumulate positions for the move higher, which should last 3-4 years!

Gold could bottom early this week with one more move down (maybe just below 1,600 intraday) to finish it's a-b-c unless Wave 5 extends lower (whether it's a complete a-b-c for Wave 2 or just Wave A - doesn't matter here - it's up we go for Wave B or Wave 1 of 3)
http://stockcharts.c...6063&r=1928.png

However, it would increase the chance of Wave 2 if we at least "tag" the 23.6% FIB line at 1,516 IMHO:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p90894153505&a=232993438&r=7839.png

Falling short of 1,516 here on this swing would keep my primary count above intact. I would prefer a move into this FIB zone here no matter how painful over the short-term!

This Trendline Chart has four(4) touches - 2 from below and 2 from above and rests now at just above 1,500 - a drop here into the pink range could satisfy the 23.6% FIB and reinforce the importance of this trendline:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p48587234920&a=246270726&r=916.png
A break below this trendline would be very Bearish IMHO and I will act accordingly.

COTS are bullish - sentiment is in the crapper - all we need now is "that sinking feeling" we all get near or at bottoms!

stubaby

[dougie]

sinking feeling ? feel like my feet are in cement boots ... thanks for the nice analysis

[stubaby]

sinking feeling ? feel like my feet are in cement boots ...
thanks for the nice analysis

This chart sort-of "puts it together" for me for the short term (flip-a-coin ). But below 1,520ish :

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p42619314311&a=242428569&r=3568.png

stubaby