Jump to content



Photo

seeking a bottom!


  • Please log in to reply
239 replies to this topic

#1 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 19 December 2011 - 10:45 AM

time for a new thread!
in 29 the then fed head called some of the wealthy folks in for a meeting and @that meeting he told them , he was about to start raising interest rates. well , these well to do individuals, armed w/fair and square inside information shorted the bleep out of the market. of course none of us know when, or even if the presses will be rolling, of course the alternative is there for all to see. the abyss. mountains of debt sliding into the water w/o sufficient funds to pay the interest , let alone the principle of debt. sovereigns dont have many choices: either renege or pay off the debt. @this point @#2 is not possible for them so, the presses kick the can down the road a bit. i have always thought this would be their option. i dont listen to them , their mouths are moving, but the words dont fall on my ears. @300 and below , england, canada, et all sold their gold reserves@1k plus the cbs are buyers. follow them and loose money.
99.7% of gold timers are out of gold and not recommending gold. yes, according to hulbert, that is the market sentiment. from a contrarian point of view it is difficult to see this sliding into the sunset. but of course anything is possible. i am in wait mode. i will not be dissuaded from gold. after all the alternative is fiat. which historically has never lasted. in fact the dollar holds the record for longevity as fiat. interest rates are low, so holding gold i am not losing money by holding gold i do see the possibility of temporary weakness going into the new year and the 1st quarter. as the pressure mounts to print. every investor, trader, etc has to decide how they will play this thing. all i know is volatility will be increasing. pick your poison. now keep in mind the major cycle that i see in gold is a 22 month cycle , in 1/2 is an 11 month cycle and it is under pressure until sometime in feb.
in my trading career making money was the name of the game. now , its about survival. the ship we are all on is going down. most will go down w/the ship. my goal is to survive. he who loses the least in this environment comes out the best. when i started in this biz, i read and listened to the most successful investors. i wanted to see if i could learn something about their thinking process. one of those was john templeton. i know that i posted this before . but every year i listen to this piece http://www.huffingto...o_n_653301.html
templeton , one of the things he said is he thought real estate, @some point would decline 90% from peak to trough. which is what the heaviest leveraged vehicle , stocks declined 29-32 .
dharma

#2 stubaby

stubaby

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,658 posts

Posted 19 December 2011 - 11:29 AM

dharma: I like your new thread title! And when you look back over the past 10 years (including 2008) - "one must keep things in perspective" - here we are looking for a bottom with Gold currently near 1,600 - wow! More and more Gold Bulls are exiting their positions here, either waiting for lower prices to buy back or even proclaiming a bear market in gold. As you say sentiment is now "set-up" - Most likley the same "old" story there - if gold does indeed drop to new lows for this corrective - all will gloat that they are 'out' and made the correct call. The "cycle" is certainly pointing 'down', but the corrective IS in it's ending configuration (often the most painful sequence) - so we wait for clues..... stubaby

#3 stubaby

stubaby

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,658 posts

Posted 19 December 2011 - 11:46 AM

One more thought near-term - looks to me like we are setting up for an island reversal in the mining indices stubaby

#4 dougie

dougie

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,998 posts

Posted 19 December 2011 - 11:58 AM

Stu: your gld: slv chart has me worried that one more BIG flush is instore

#5 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 19 December 2011 - 12:24 PM

dharma:

I like your new thread title! And when you look back over the past 10 years (including 2008) - "one must keep things in perspective" - here we are looking for a bottom with Gold currently near 1,600 - wow! More and more Gold Bulls are exiting their positions here, either waiting for lower prices to buy back or even proclaiming a bear market in gold.

As you say sentiment is now "set-up" - Most likley the same "old" story there - if gold does indeed drop to new lows for this corrective - all will gloat that they are 'out' and made the correct call.

The "cycle" is certainly pointing 'down', but the corrective IS in it's ending configuration (often the most painful sequence) - so we wait for clues.....


stubaby

right now, i am looking @this as 5of 3 then a wave 4 rally. yes we are giving ground, but as you say, not much ground. and the lows of october are still below us. so , its a sideways chop. when this thing bottoms, w/such lopsided sentiment, we could see a very fast powerful rally.
i love the fear. gold timers throwing in the towel. the pessimistic feel to the market. what amazes me is after 10-12 years of higher highs, in a moment it all gets thrown out the window. and the chant gold is in a bear market led by dennis the menace gartman. has a nice ring. its all part of the process.
dharma

#6 stubaby

stubaby

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,658 posts

Posted 19 December 2011 - 12:40 PM

Stu: your gld: slv chart has me worried that one more BIG flush is instore



dougie:

Yep - but I see this as the 'flip-side' of Golds EW count - ending an a-b-c up corrective in 5 of C now.

stubaby

#7 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 19 December 2011 - 04:29 PM

.03% bullish for gold may be too high. the bulls went into hibernation. they got confused . gold held fridays lows miners did not. folks dusted off their 2008 caps and are giving that chant. draghi says no printing. the longer they wait, the more they will have to print, if they go that route. if not , @some point the solvency of the banks will come into question. if you have leverage, you better get your prayers going. if not then in the end this will have been another correction in the saga of a gold bull market dharma

#8 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 20 December 2011 - 10:58 AM

on this decline i have felt capitulation . fear is strong. #s like 1k bandied about. of course @1k those prognosticators will see lower #s and never buy. its why you can listen to everyone but keep your eyes on the market. that is what is. the rest is hope and fear. @680 gold in 2008-9 400s were bandied about. on the charts the largest % corrections were 06 and 08-9 . although this is one is starting to enter that picture, but not there ....yet. we had daily divergences in all the mining indexes. and the mining indexes took out their october lows but gold/gld did not. sentiment had to be really close to 0 . hulbert reported .03% last tuesday, that was before the drubbing of wed-thursday. i am always watching the #s on the market which are 1620 as the end of this price cycle and 1640 is the beginning of the next price cycle. w/the compression in the market i expect a powerful rally to erase some of the negative sentiment. i dont think the final lows are in, but i could very well be mistaken. am i doing anything, no i am not . there are long periods where just sitting is warranted. when you get really confident and put on leverage, then you know , you have made a grave mistake. those folks who just finished coughing up gold/miners , their greed/fear got the best of them and they paid the piper. we are a long ways from the completion of this bull. the standard parameters of a bull have not come to fruition yet. the ecb meets tomorrow and they are coming out w/3yr debt, which could goose the metals a bit. the longer they wait, the more printing will take place, if not down the rabbit hole we go. bank balance sheets are horrible and that will exacerbate their situation. hold the fiat or hold gold. the choice is yours. dharma

Edited by dharma, 20 December 2011 - 11:01 AM.


#9 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 20 December 2011 - 12:10 PM

tomorrow the ecb has 3year funding. the funding will be @1% -its another form of qe. and that may be extended as need be. might not these bonds be monetized if sales dont go well?

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — 2012 is shaping up to be the year of the dove on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting committee, giving Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke leeway to continue his activist approach to monetary policy if he so chooses, analysts said.
http://www.marketwat...19?siteid=nwtpm
dharma
keep in mind that the new cot includes tuesdays, so they cover on monday, leaving little to no footprints

#10 dougie

dougie

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,998 posts

Posted 20 December 2011 - 12:46 PM

dollar backtesting its breakout of C&H what it does from here will tell all