239 replies to this topic

[dharma]

http://www.marketwat...gold-2011-12-19
apparently the far east is willing to pay more to actually get the physical
dharma

[johngeorge]

LINK

THE MESSENGER OF CHANGING TIMES…

20 December 2011 by Cullen Roche

Here are some deep thoughts from the great Richard Russell that will give the bears something to chew on for a while:

“I talked with my good friend, Joe Granville, over the weekend, and Joe is as bearish as I’ve ever seen or heard him, based on his OBV volume figures. This checks with my own work and studies.

While fundamentalists scour the news for indications of bullish news, the internals of the stock market continue to deteriorate. Even the action of the stock market is bearish as the market rallies on dull volume but declines on higher volume. Furthermore, rising breadth is narrow on rallies while declining breadth is broad when the market heads down.

I don’t know what more I can do or say to convinced subscribers that we are seeing the resumption of the bear market. This means that we should be OUT of all stocks. As for gold mining stocks, this is a personal choice. In due time, I expect gold to fully express itself with a huge upside blow-off. At that time I expect gold mining stocks to follow, but between now and then gold mining shares will probably be hit like every thing else by the fury of the bear market.

I should add that I am expecting this bear market to be far worse than most people expect or are prepared for. The fact is that I don’t believe that Americans expect any thing more than a temporary spate of difficult times, an annoying patch that should be over in a year or so. This is not what I am expecting or predicting.

Once the Dow breaks under 10,000, I believe that the analysts and the PUBLIC will become frightened and start to cut back on their buying. The newspapers will halt their bullish stance, and a great stillness will envelope that land. That stillness will be the result of shock as it dawns on Americans that they are seeing something far different than what they were expecting.

By the way, the Dow is now trading below its 200-day moving average, which stands at 11,938. The 50-day MA is bearishly below the 200-day MA (50-day is 11,811).

Spiritual — While in rehab and after my hip operation I had a lot of time to think. And I wondered why I was still alive. I had survived combat in World War II. I had survived two heart attacks and a stroke. I had survived a mastoid infection and operation. I had survived 50 years of riding motorcycles with one dangerous crash. I had survived two divorces. I have survived (and believe me it was survival) a severely autistic daughter who almost drove me mad. I have survived the years, since I will be 88 (the Chinese lucky number is 8).

So why, I ask myself, am I still here with my brain still functioning. My conclusion, arrived at after a lot of hard thinking, is that I’m supposed to be the messenger of changing times. I have 8,034 subscribers. What percentage of these ladies and gentlemen take me seriously and follow my advice, and what percentage of this group think I am a self-opinionated loonie I don’t know.

In other words, some body wants me to hang around. I know this based on e-mails and kind letters I have received from many subscribers. My advice over the years on gold and various bull and bear markets has resulted in changing some lives for the better. Which is a source of great satisfaction to me.

So that’s my story. I’m afraid it may sound prideful or mystical, but it is what I think, and when a man is 87 years old, he’s long past the need or the desire to lie. “

Messenger of changing times sounds more like the messenger of doom….Let’s hope Richard Russell is wrong. Unfortunately, it’s hard to ignore a man with more market cycles under his belt than just about anyone around….

Source: Dow Theory Letters

[dharma]

in my experience it is a rare one that understands markets w/o having gone through one complete cycle. (bull/bear) russell is 87 a child of the depression. he has been writing dow theory for 40+years . you may not agree w/him, but his experience deserves a listen. gold got up to 1640 last night. impressive, but not enough to break into the next price cycle, granted it was over bought on short term charts, but for me it is a clue. dont get me wrong, long term i am bullish on gold, i am talking in the short term here, the next couple of months. of course this move off the lows is very young. conclusions are premature, but i take note of the clues the market gives. if your portfolio lacks physical gold, then you have not really protected yourself. the mining indexes: xau, hui, gdx all have daily divergences from oversold. which is bottoming action. more evidence is needed there as well to be sure we have the bottom. if you are very experienced, that is one thing. you know what you are doing. if not stay away from leverage. it can and will wipe you out. i traded commodities, futures contracts exclusively for the 1st 10 years. i dont want the stress now. so , i stay away. watching for more clues. dharma

[dharma]

http://www.bloomberg...it-flowing.html
you dont suppose they just printed that money!?
dharma

[stubaby]

duplicate post

Edited by stubaby, 21 December 2011 - 11:11 AM.

[stubaby]

dharma:

IF this is a Wave © Up we should see a move past 1,667 and even above 1,700 over the next 3-4 days.

Based on the inversion to a "top" around the 9th - this count is looking better to me:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p75242258115&a=251439079&r=3898.png


stubaby

[dharma]

dharma:

IF this is a Wave © Up we should see a move past 1,667 and even above 1,700 over the next 3-4 days.

Based on the inversion to a "top" around the 9th - this count is looking better to me:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p75242258115&a=251439079&r=3898.png


stubaby

interesting possibility! i have a different count, but we end up in the same place
dharma
this piece if it is true, is a real game changer. buying forward supplies before the banksters can get it takes supply off the market
http://kingworldnews...om_in_Gold.html

[stubaby]

Anyone buying here? - or are the "headlights too bright" - I am adding strategically TODAY! IMHO - this is the BUY point for the move up into January - then we'll see. stubaby

[dougie]

Based on the inversion to a "top" around the 9th - this count is looking better to me:" Can you clarify that for me? thanks

[JGUITARSLIM]

Anyone buying here? - or are the "headlights too bright" - I am adding strategically TODAY!

IMHO - this is the BUY point for the move up into January - then we'll see.


stubaby

Bought last week Stu...